TIED FOR FIRST PLACE

AMarner32

Well-Known Member
Jul 11, 2013
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Even if this wasn't possible, they don't roll over just to give us a win and hurt Kansas. If the team has quit, maybe...but they wouldn't have beaten Kansas last night if that were the case.
Thomas Gipson said in an interview last week that he predicted a 27 point loss last night, so it appears even when the best players have quit, they can still win.
 

Cyclonesince78

Well-Known Member
Mar 8, 2012
14,395
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Anyone have Kenpom? Dying to know what they have the odds for ISU and KU sharing the title and odds of KU or ISU winning it outright.

Since KU is a half game up on us, the odds might slightly favor them, but after we win on Wednesday I would be shocked if we're not favored to win it.
 

GTO

Well-Known Member
Mar 25, 2014
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North DFW, TX
Another good takeaway from the Phog.net last night was that one of the posters was all concerned because he didn't think they can match the UCLA 13 season conference streak now. Reading that made me want the outright title even more. How awesome would it be to **** in their Cheerios?
 

Rhoadhoused

Well-Known Member
Apr 27, 2010
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Ames, IA
Anyone have Kenpom? Dying to know what they have the odds for ISU and KU sharing the title and odds of KU or ISU winning it outright.

Since KU is a half game up on us, the odds might slightly favor them, but after we win on Wednesday I would be shocked if we're not favored to win it.
.64.69
.62
.58


15% at 4-0.


I think we are pretty under rated by kenpom due to some of our blows leads this year
 

CYlent Bob

Well-Known Member
Aug 7, 2006
3,248
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The Winterset Metroplex
A fan, maybe, but I'd also want to win.
If the players are rolling over, the program has gone down further than I thought, and I think it's awful already.

The idea that the team will roll over on Saturday is laughable, and deserves to be mocked without mercy. They'll come out trying to win. They probably fail at it, but I don't think it's from rolling over for us.

*snaps off a salute*

CYlent Bob, reporting for duty, SIR!
 

CYlent Bob

Well-Known Member
Aug 7, 2006
3,248
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The Winterset Metroplex
Another good takeaway from the Phog.net last night was that one of the posters was all concerned because he didn't think they can match the UCLA 13 season conference streak now. Reading that made me want the outright title even more. How awesome would it be to **** in their Cheerios?

Working into a tie for the title is ****ing in their Cheerios. Winning out combined with one more KU loss to take the outright title from the Beakers is dropping a deuce on their Thanksgiving turkey.
 

Dale

Well-Known Member
Mar 5, 2010
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Anyone have Kenpom? Dying to know what they have the odds for ISU and KU sharing the title and odds of KU or ISU winning it outright.

I don't have KenPom, but I did 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations using Massey's numbers, and here's what I have:

KU outright: 33%
KU/ISU tie (or 3-way tie): 31%
ISU outright: 20%
KU/OU tie: 8%
OU outright: 4%
ISU/OU tie: 3%
other: 1%

If ISU beats Baylor, the odds change to this:

KU/ISU tie (or 3-way tie): 35%
ISU outright: 27%
KU outright: 25%
KU/OU tie: 5%
OU outright: 4%
ISU/OU tie: 3%
other: <1%

And if Iowa State wins out, they have a 78% chance of winning the Big 12 outright and a 22% chance of sharing with Kansas.
 
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iowaboy

Active Member
Apr 4, 2008
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Cedar Rapids, Iowa
Fred's gunna be up all night thinking about what he's gunna tell the players to keep their heads on right, knowing that they gotta play one game at a time. Remember Iowa St hasn't been in this position in 15 years.


That "one game at a time" quote is so stupid! I have YET to see anyone play more than one game at a time! This isn't chess. Stop with the cliche's. How about " don't look ahead instead? Start talking English again and state what you mean. IB
 

aeroclone

Well-Known Member
Oct 30, 2006
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An easy schedule including a game on the court that KU just lost on. Is he saying they lost an "easy" game last night?

I think what he was trying to say is that he is tired of losing to teams they are better than.
 

CloneJob

Active Member
Jan 10, 2009
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Ankeny
My gut feel is there is a better chance of KU winning out that ISU winning out. We will be favored in all four games, but a couple will only be a couple of points. When was the last time we won 7 straight in conference?

KU has no easy road... they will be underdogs at OU.

This is shaping up to be a GREAT finish. Hope they continue to play fully engaged!
 
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Rhoadhoused

Well-Known Member
Apr 27, 2010
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Ames, IA
My gut feel is there is a better chance of KU winning out that ISU winning out. We will be favored in all four games, but a couple will only be a couple of points. When was the last time we won 7 straight in conference?

KU has no easy rode... they will be underdogs at OU.

This is shaping up to be a GREAT finish. Hope they continue to play fully engaged!

Your question is a misunderstanding of probability. There more relevant question would be we last won 4 in a row. The first 3 already happened.


Not that you're could possibly make an accurate prediction or find any correlation without looking at SOS

Unless you were genuinely asking, then ignore all that
 
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Cyclonesince78

Well-Known Member
Mar 8, 2012
14,395
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I don't have KenPom, but I did 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations using Massey's numbers, and here's what I have:

KU outright: 33%
KU/ISU tie (or 3-way tie): 31%
ISU outright: 20%
KU/OU tie: 8%
OU outright: 4%
ISU/OU tie: 3%
other: 1%

If ISU beats Baylor, the odds change to this:

KU/ISU tie (or 3-way tie): 35%
ISU outright: 27%
KU outright: 25%
KU/OU tie: 5%
OU outright: 4%
ISU/OU tie: 3%
other: <1%

And if Iowa State wins out, they have a 78% chance of winning the Big 12 outright and a 22% chance of sharing with Kansas.

Awesome. Beat Baylor on Wednesday and we're the favorites. The team has to be super motivated right now.
 

Final42b

Well-Known Member
Jan 4, 2009
6,321
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Ames
We could clinch in a high school gym. Tempting to make a road trip if we are in position
 

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