Might have to do with Milan also being out for an extended period at that time
Williams & Blum: The Monday after
- Thread starter Aiden Wyatt
- Start date
Sure but the metrics matter to get you a high 3 seed and a favorable first round match up.
All else from there is a bit of playing well, luck and shots to fall. None of those happened Sunday on top of injuries.
Go check out Houston's general game minutes (with few exceptions) from their bye games or even conference blow outs. Notice anything?
For most fans that is true. I believe TJ and the coaching staff saw those shortcomings that were setting on the bench and said we need to get better. Therefore, we see four players from the deep end of the bench in the portal. We are all fans of the Cyclones.
Anecdotally - I made my 2024 March Madness bracket predictions entirely off of analytics, using Kenpom and NET information. My bracket ended up a total train wreck very quickly. Which tells me that many P4 coaches are doing the same thing as TJ - playing in a way that artificially inflates their analytic rankings. I don't blame them for this at all. As was pointed out, we basically got a 3 seed by jobbing the analytics and witholding the Gilbert injury from the media.
You and I have the same amount of final fours as every ISU coach since world war 2. What do you expect?
I was going to do that this year, but I ended up being forgetful and lazy. forgot to fill out my brackets.
After the start we had, this Team was never going to fall to a #4 or a #5 seed. That is how strong of a "head start" we had from both the preseason metrics/polls and the performance in November, December, and early January.
Losing out on the double bye in the Big 12 tourney was such a blow, and having to play on that Wednesday was an embarrassing reminder of the "fall off" in just a short 2 months. IMHO, finishing 5th in the conference is absolutely a disappointing "stain" on this entire season. The West Virginia, K-State, Oklahoma State, and BYU (home) game - cannot lose those 2 home games and cannot lay 2 major road eggs. At worst, gotta win 2 of those 4 (ideally 3) and we're a #2 seed in the dance. Then, in the second round, you get a squad like Washington State (which we probably beat without Keshon), instead of an athletic team from the SEC.
As the losses started to mount, it was really odd and frustrating to see our fans spin narratives to "cope" with the losses. "It doesn't matter if this Team is a #3 seed or worse, just get to March healthy and anything can happen!". That is just silly. Every seed line makes it factually/analytically harder to make a run. It is harder for 3 seeds to go deep in the NCAA than it is for 2 seeds. It is exponentially harder for 4 seeds to go on deep runs than a 1 seed. The higher up you go, the more improbable it gets.
If Jefferson hits both free throws at the end of regulation against Arizona- Iowa State gets the double bye.
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It's just not true they couldn't have fallen further then a 3. They beat one decent team in November and December, and Gilbert supposedly first tweaked his groin on December 30. There are people in here saying he should've been shut down, so how would January have gone? A team that lost to Oklahoma State could've dropped a few more games to just about any opponent
If this were a dichotomy, many people would agree with you.
However, you can’t say for certain that allowing Nojus or Rock to play an extra 5 minutes a game in November would mean he would have developed into a solid backup guard in March.
Cade Kelderman was getting the minutes that Nojus wasn’t. Watson even got a few big minutes when the injury/foul bugs would hit the big guys.
It’s more likely to me that these guys just weren’t good enough to play against big 12 or NCAA tournament competition, and getting an extra 30 minutes combined over 6 blowout wins wouldn’t change that.
Freshmen HAVE done well or contributed under TJ, but only if they were extremely talented or just good players; Tamin, Milan, Hunter.
Are you going to tell me that if Eli King had just gotten more playing time, he would be a contributing guard at this level?
I'm all for giving players game time to develop because I want anyone who chooses to be a Cyclone to become all they can be. But I understand why it isn't happening much in this environment. And I agree that the amount of difference a few minutes in a few more games will likely not tip the scales for the team in the big picture.
You would think that a slightly undersized walk on who has been laying it on the line in practice and working his butt off outside of practice getting the chance to play minutes that matter in games that matter would be enough of an incentive for the other guys riding the pine. If you put the work in...
Eli I don't think was ready for this level even with a couple more years of development.
Milan with his size and offensive skills forced his way on the floor.
Hunter was highly recruited and really was our only pg option.
Lipsey wasn't supposed to play a ton but Jeremiah Williams had a knee injury preseason and forced Tamin into playing starter minutes
The people saying ISU's 9-8 finish is just what this team was seem to be the same ones saying Gilbert should've been shut down for at least a couple of weeks, if not over a month. I'm not the smartest person, but I'm struggling to square the two. It stands to reason that Iowa State could well have cratered had Gilbert been shut down for weeks. So when would've been the perfect time to pull the ripcord? Playing God and just assuming that ISU still would've finished in about the same spot in the conference AND Gilbert would've been much healthier and substantially less likely to re-injure in February and March is just playing a game of wild and impossible-to-predict hypotheticals that I can't even wrap my head around.
To the people saying metrics don't matter as much as Otz seems to think, or that they don't need to be boosted so long as you're beating bad teams by double digits—what crystal ball do you have that shows that the team would've avoided injuries or illnesses had they taken your advice? And what seed would they have ended up with had they not annihilated bad opponents? They got to play in Maui, yes, but didn't beat anyone good there.
And to the people who say more minutes for bench guys not only would've resulted in a healthier team come March but also may have allowed them to blossom into real contributors, @ghyland7 nailed it. You may be right. But more playing time does not equal improvement. I particularly liked Williams and Blum's discussion about Otz's philosophy. If he doesn't trust your defense, you ain't playing. Maybe that's too strict. Coaches learn and do have to adapt. For example, I'm open to the idea that the offseason conditioning could be lightened, and-or the intensity of practices during the season. But do you think Dan Hurley is gonna give you 30 minutes a game if you don't defend your butt off? (I don't even like the guy, but he's won.) Tom Izzo? Bill Self is an offensive genius, but somewhat quietly has a top 25 defense almost every season. I could go on. In short, there are things that perhaps Otz and his staff need to go back to the drawing board on. Sitting young guys who can only contribute at a P4 level on one side of the floor doesn't seem to be one of those.
I do agree that the staff needs to have a higher "hit" percentage among the freshmen they bring in, as far as developing into those very players that Otz trusts. Blum said exactly that, so it's not that Otz is immune from criticism
To the people saying metrics don't matter as much as Otz seems to think, or that they don't need to be boosted so long as you're beating bad teams by double digits—what crystal ball do you have that shows that the team would've avoided injuries or illnesses had they taken your advice? And what seed would they have ended up with had they not annihilated bad opponents? They got to play in Maui, yes, but didn't beat anyone good there.
And to the people who say more minutes for bench guys not only would've resulted in a healthier team come March but also may have allowed them to blossom into real contributors, @ghyland7 nailed it. You may be right. But more playing time does not equal improvement. I particularly liked Williams and Blum's discussion about Otz's philosophy. If he doesn't trust your defense, you ain't playing. Maybe that's too strict. Coaches learn and do have to adapt. For example, I'm open to the idea that the offseason conditioning could be lightened, and-or the intensity of practices during the season. But do you think Dan Hurley is gonna give you 30 minutes a game if you don't defend your butt off? (I don't even like the guy, but he's won.) Tom Izzo? Bill Self is an offensive genius, but somewhat quietly has a top 25 defense almost every season. I could go on. In short, there are things that perhaps Otz and his staff need to go back to the drawing board on. Sitting young guys who can only contribute at a P4 level on one side of the floor doesn't seem to be one of those.
I do agree that the staff needs to have a higher "hit" percentage among the freshmen they bring in, as far as developing into those very players that Otz trusts. Blum said exactly that, so it's not that Otz is immune from criticism
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I question the need to have two versions of Jackson and Chatfield on one team. I’m actually going to come out and say no one should have two 0% 3 point shooters on one team getting regular minutes. Especially if neither are a rim protector.
One version of a junk guy like Chatfield is fine and should come cheap. They need a starting 5 who can space the floor imo. Have the guards rebound better to help with any loss in physicality (Heise and Lipsey are capable).
Not a TJ hater, but I think he was off during those in-game buddies “just be more physical!”. Uh TJ these teams are shooting 50-60% from 3. Need to guard the 3-point line and score, not bump and bruise your way to victory
Team was already dealing with injuries, and giving everything they had at that point. Such a brutal loss, I will always hate “Love” for that stupid shot.
Absolutely love the sports message board trope of: “OHHHHhhh IF yOU ARe SOOO SmaRt then WHy areN’T yOU CoaCHING!?”
Hilariously stupid.
His name popped up Sunday as someone that would have been a good 5th option or similar wording.
Not joking.
Just imagine TJ in preseason practice/camp: 'We need you to play 5ish minutes in November and December games so you're ready in March two years from now in case our top two guards are injured or hobbling around'.
I’m not the one who said that, or agree, but you don’t think he would have been a better option than Kelderman?
That's not the point I'm making.
I don't see TJ recruiting for guys to sit on the bench for three seasons nor do I see someone wanting to do that especially in the current era where even the blue bloods don't necessarily have a lot of depth waiting their turn.
