*** Official #24 IOWA STATE vs #20 BYU Game(Day) Thread ***
- Thread starter CycloneRulzzz
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8-10 is very likely solidly in.
Maybe. Depends on who we beat since it’s not a round robin. Okie State won 8 last year and didn’t get in. We won 9 2 years ago and slipped in as an 11 seed
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Winning 12-13 games in the Big 12 is regular season conference championship, Top 10 team, and #1 or #2 NCAA tourney seed discussion
Maybe 11-13 wins was more my expectation. Usually 13-15 wins, wins the conference championship. I didn’t expect that, but I expected to be in contention. And finish 4th or 5th based on our recruiting class, our transfers, what we had returning , and taking the next step in TJ’s 3rd year.
Also, those expectations were too lofty obviously, which is why I lowered them after Orlando.
BYU is a very good team that likely played one of their best games of the year. We got beat. That can happen on the road in the Big XII. Hopefully our guys will use it as a reminder of what it takes to get conference wins, especially on the road, but don't let it lead to another loss.
No one is winning 15 games in the Big 12. I doubt anyone wins 14.
2023 Big 12 Results:
Regular Season Conference Champ - Kansas. 13-5 Big 12 record. 1 Seed in NCAA Tourney.
Big 12 Tourney Champ (2nd regular season) - Texas. 12-6 Big 12 record. 2 Seed in NCAA Tourney.
Baylor and KState - 11-7 Big 12 record. 3 Seed in NCAA Tourney.
They've also gone 19-40 in their last two games, against two of the better defenses (Houston and Cincy)
Going back 10 years the average number of conference wins for the Big 12 champion is 14.3 (excluding 2020 Covid year). 14 is also the median number of wins for the conf champ. In 2019 KU won 17.
You also supported my expectation. 11-13 wins and a 3-4 seed in the tourney. So K-State, Baylor level last year. That’s what I expected.
We've gotta make more than three or four three-pointers per game to win much in this league I think.
Overall I look at our shooters and their numbers don't look that bad.
Jones: 33.3% on 4.8 attempts per game, about what he did a B-lo last year
Pav: 40.0% on 1.5 attempts per game, low volume but good accuracy
Lipsey: 38.3% on 3.5 attempts, amazing compared to where he was at last year
Gilbert: 22.5% on 2.4 attempts, not good but long-range gunner isn't really his intended role
Momcilovic: 39.5% on 5.1 attempts, doesn't get much better than that
Hopefully this is just a recent/transient slump we're in. We've had good looks in Big 12 games, just aren't hitting them. Last night it seemed likely everyone was hesitant to pull the trigger, way too much passing up a shot, dribbling into the lane, getting stopped/stuck and looking around for a bailout.
Overall I look at our shooters and their numbers don't look that bad.
Jones: 33.3% on 4.8 attempts per game, about what he did a B-lo last year
Pav: 40.0% on 1.5 attempts per game, low volume but good accuracy
Lipsey: 38.3% on 3.5 attempts, amazing compared to where he was at last year
Gilbert: 22.5% on 2.4 attempts, not good but long-range gunner isn't really his intended role
Momcilovic: 39.5% on 5.1 attempts, doesn't get much better than that
Hopefully this is just a recent/transient slump we're in. We've had good looks in Big 12 games, just aren't hitting them. Last night it seemed likely everyone was hesitant to pull the trigger, way too much passing up a shot, dribbling into the lane, getting stopped/stuck and looking around for a bailout.
2020 KU was the consensus national title favorite and lock #1 overall seed until the tournament got cancelled. That team doesn't exist this year but the parity is as good as it has ever been.
I'm pretty confident no one wins 14 this year. Absolutely no one is winning 15.
We can still finish 4th or 5th like you originally said but your "expected" number of Big 12 wins does not align with that expectation. The margins will also be razor thin in the end of the year standings.
Last night looked like guys like Pav and CuJo were passing up open looks to drive into defenders, also looked like our guys in the corner were running back to transition defend and leaving drivers with nobody to kick ball to. Definitely looked game-planned to not shoot threes last night.
I guess we’ll see what number of wins the champ ends up with.
I think my expected number of wins did/does align with what I expected from the season. I (and you) have shown that through historical trends. But not really sure what we’re arguing about here anymore.
We sure will.
Was just pointing out your expectations were exorbitant and the number of Big 12 wins doesn't align with recent NCAA tourney seeding.
I'm still in awe at the over-the-back rebound about 23 minutes into the broadcast (10:00 minutes on the clock in the first half) that was called a foul on Curtis Jones.
If you look closely, you can see Jones' hands reaching back and pulling Saunders forward INTO his back.
Just kidding. I've got nothing. Pretty sure the old guy behind us who was booing every obvious call knew BYU got away with that one.
19-20 wins gives us a guaranteed spot in the tournament.
CycloneErik
Well-Known Member
12-13 in this conference is a national title contender. You can pencil that in for the next few years.
9-11 wins is a solid tournament team, then anything happens from there. It's not a One Cyclone Moment year, but there isn't a lot of variety amongst NCAA champions, anyway.
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