Illinois matchup

madguy30

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I actually really like our on the ball matchups. However, if I was TJ, I'd start Ward and have him cover Hawkins(6'10 and plays around the perimeter) until Dainja comes in. Just match BRE on Dainja the whole game. They essentiallyplay the same number of minutes but he comes off the bench. Also, Watson coming in at the same time to guard Hawkins is not a problem.
I'm not sure we're in a good spot if BRE has to guard another forward on their team. They all are 3pt shooters

They'll go after Ward to create foul trouble and that would be pretty bad if it happened in two minutes. Probably Gilbert too.

Imo it might be best to stick with the same rotations to keep that rhythm in place.
 

ClubCy

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It's completely bs. I live east coast and was shocked that the game wouldn't start till 10
Yeah it’s not ideal to have games that late but it’s been happening for at least 10 years with these tip times. Someone can correct me if I’m wrong but I think this is the first time we’ve played the late game in the Sweet 16 round so it’s fairly new to us.

For some reason, this year the national media is up in arms about it like it hasn’t been happening for a decade.

I’m not sure what the solution is.

Edit: last years times were moved up 30 minutes but the years before that mirrored this years tip times.
 

CycloneErik

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Excellent Question!
Hated: Purdue. Not a Matt Painter fan, not a believer in them as an elite team. I think they are on Iowa State/Illinois tier 2 level maybe with a slight leg up, but even that's really depending on the matchup.... but they don't belong with the other "elites".

Rooting for: If ISU goes out I'm pulling for Houston and Creighton.
-Houston and ISU have a surprisingly unexpected bromance of mutual respect. Really no bad blood at all, which is a pleasant welcomed suprise.
-Creighton is local and fun with plenty of local connections to our staff, fan base, and university.

I'm pulling for Houston and Creighton in any case. Not over us, but that's only an issue in the title game for any of us that get there.
 

rosshm16

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I will say, Illinois fans are by far the easiest to troll I've ever encountered. They really fancy themselves as some juggernaut program that's just caught a few bad breaks here and there. 19 years of disappointment hasn't diminished their confidence one bit.

Now the whole world is telling them how great they are. I think we have to factor in that that this is setting up nicely for a massive letdown. This Illinois team doesn't strike me as a group that keeps itself insulated and immune from the noise.
They have in my observations a little bit of a "University of Iowa Football" vibe, thinking they are an elite program one small step short of a blueblood.
 

illinifan2023

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But has he done it against a national defensive player of the year finalist - inarguably one of the two best defensive guards in the country (Jamal Shead has him edged out) - who is 4th nationally in steals, second in Defensive Win Shares and 1st in Defensive Box +/-?

That's the challenge. Domask has never faced anyone like Tamin. The closest would be Ace Baldwin at Penn State - and that didn't go well for Illinois.
I’ll take the 5 inches and experience with Domask if that’s the matchup. You’ll NEED to send a double everytime down the floor if that’s the case.
 
Mar 26, 2024
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Excellent Question!
Hated: Purdue. Not a Matt Painter fan, not a believer in them as an elite team. I think they are on Iowa State/Illinois tier 2 level maybe with a slight leg up, but even that's really depending on the matchup.... but they don't belong with the other "elites". Their guards are an underwhelming question mark IMO

Rooting for: If ISU goes out I'm pulling for Houston and Creighton.
-Houston and ISU have a surprisingly unexpected bromance of mutual respect. Really no bad blood at all, which is a pleasant welcomed suprise.
-Creighton is local and fun with plenty of local connections to our staff, fan base, and university.
i like Painter because he is relatively clean in a really dirty industry.

Creighton, 100% with you there. Plus if they get the chance they can beat UConn.
 
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MJ271

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Here is an interesting one I would like to get your take on. The main Illinois site has this nugget: "According to a great snippet from kenpom, offenses tend to dictate games to defenses in general and particularly when two very good units meet."

First I have heard that. I always think D travels better etc but I am also a Bears fan so....:D

In general, I don't necessarily disagree with kenpom's assertion here whole cloth.

What I would say is that I don't think it's relevant to playing Iowa State. Nothing about our defense is typical. It's almost an offensive style of defense, if that makes any sense (trust me, you will see what I mean almost immediately tomorrow night.)

We don't react and adjust, as is generally the case with defense. We attack and dictate. If you like defense, it's kind of fun and interesting to watch. It's almost reckless and irresponsible the way we defend.

[PS....Go Bears!]
I assume Pomeroy's blog series on offense vs. defense is what was referenced by the Illinois site. The summary is linked below.


It's accurate that he finds that offenses have more control over how much they score than defenses do. He finds that about 64% of an offense's points per possession are controlled by the offense rather than the defense. But of note, turnovers (steals, particularly) are one of the things that defenses have more control over. He also says, "the defense's tools are two-point defense and influencing shot selection." The latter of those is what Iowa State generally tries to do, forcing a team to take uncomfortable twos and take more threes than they would ideally like to.

I definitely think there's something to your point, @RezClone, that Otz's defense is more about dictating than most. They make it very easy for the offense to go the places that they'd like the offensive players to go (the baseline, for instance) while using hedging and double teams to keep offenses from doing what they usually do (using ball screens to get to the rim, for instance). Another small example is how it's very common for Iowa State to show a zone defense coming out of a timeout because they know that the offense may have drawn up a play, and playing a zone usually forces the offense to scrap that play.

That all being said, if the offense is making tough shots, which Illinois is capable of doing, the defense can't do much about it. That's where a lot of the offensive control comes from.
 

NorthCyd

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Very much so. And it's not a new thing, our "defensive coordinator", if you will, brought this style from Northern Iowa when he teamed up with Head Coach TJ Otz three years ago to make us into what we are today.

He's been doing this for a very long time, the difference is he used to run it with plucky try-hard local relatively unathletic iowa kids. Now he has Uber athletic plucky try-hard Power 5 athletes. (Iowa State has just secured its 3rd straight top 15 recruiting class, for example.)

If I could recommend, I'd have you watch Kansas, or any of the 3 Houston games, or the 2 Baylor games. You will see what we do against comparable talent to UI (better talent IMO, but I'm biased so feel free to take that as you wish)

You can find full game replays for them for free on YouTube. (Highlights don't do us justice because they generally just show offensive highlights without our stops, obviously.)
I don't think our defense is that unique. No middle defense has been trendy, particularly in the Big XII, the last few years. Baylor and Texas Tech ran it very effectively in recent years. I just think we are doing it better than anybody right now.
 

illinifan2023

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In classic CF fashion, i have given way too much thought about the uniform situation. Really glad we get to wear the whites with the gold CYCLONES on the front one more time. We are NEARLY undefeated in them (FU A&M)

Completely relevant and irrefutable, I know. Might as well pack it up now Illini:jimlad:

Does Illinois wear the orange or blue tomorrow?
We need to know ASAP for visualization purposes. We need firm confirmation post haste, please.
Orange. Cannot recall the last time we wore blue. Would post a picture of the uniforms on here but it is an ISU site after all.
 

WastedTalent

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I actually really like our on the ball matchups. However, if I was TJ, I'd start Ward and have him cover Hawkins(6'10 and plays around the perimeter) until Dainja comes in. Just match BRE on Dainja the whole game. They essentiallyplay the same number of minutes but he comes off the bench. Also, Watson coming in at the same time to guard Hawkins is not a problem.
I'm not sure we're in a good spot if BRE has to guard another forward on their team. They all are 3pt shooters
I like those matchups as well, but I really don't see TJ taking Rob out of the starting lineup. So he'll have to hold his own for a bit. As the game goes on we may see more Ward, because that means he's not in foul trouble, and he's causing disruption on defense.
My favorite lineup (not considering matchups) is Ward, Milan, Gilbert, Curtis Jones and Tamin.
 

RezClone

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I assume Pomeroy's blog series on offense vs. defense is what was referenced by the Illinois site. The summary is linked below.


It's accurate that he finds that offenses have more control over how much they score than defenses do. He finds that about 64% of an offense's points per possession are controlled by the offense rather than the defense. But of note, turnovers (steals, particularly) are one of the things that defenses have more control over. He also says, "the defense's tools are two-point defense and influencing shot selection." The latter of those is what Iowa State generally tries to do, forcing a team to take uncomfortable twos and take more threes than they would ideally like to.

I definitely think there's something to your point, @RezClone, that Otz's defense is more about dictating than most. They make it very easy for the offense to go the places that they'd like the offensive players to go (the baseline, for instance) while using hedging and double teams to keep offenses from doing what they usually do (using ball screens to get to the rim, for instance). Another small example is how it's very common for Iowa State to show a zone defense coming out of a timeout because they know that the offense may have drawn up a play, and playing a zone usually forces the offense to scrap that play.

That all being said, if the offense is making tough shots, which Illinois is capable of doing, the defense can't do much about it. That's where a lot of the offensive control comes from.
Great post. Informed, fair, measured. High level stuff there.
 

illinifan2023

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I think we just keep going in circles. Which is why I am ready for this game to start. But they lately haven't played anyone with a defensive pulse.
Fair. However I think people are reading too much into turnovers. For example, Illinois had 17!!! TO @ Rutgers and still won by 18 and put up 76. Rutgers obviously isn’t near ISU’s level, but against Tennessee they only had 9 and put up 79. I think this game comes down to Iowa State’s offense more than their defense to be quite honest. If you can score consistently I think y’all win this game. (Probably will need to hit at least 75)
 
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4theCYcle

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Teams I'll be rooting for outside if ISU loses or rest of the way - Houston of course. Creighton, wouldn't mind seeing them move on and Arizona given they're excited about coming to the B12 and will make the conference even stronger next year.

Looks like Fridays slate of games is better. But I still can't believe how late our tip time is.
 
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4theCYcle

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I went back and rewatched it on Monday night as I felt the same thing but realized they were only 4-23 from 3. I think our slow shooting start made it feel like they were making shots but outside of Wells carrying them in the first half they really missed an opportunity to bury us.
I wasn't talking about the 3's though, because I was referring to the number of 2's/tough shots they kept hitting after we were playing solid defense. That was the frustrating part.
 

NetflixAndClone

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Yeah it’s not ideal to have games that late but it’s been happening for at least 10 years with these tip times. Someone can correct me if I’m wrong but I think this is the first time we’ve played the late game in the Sweet 16 round so it’s fairly new to us.

For some reason, this year the national media is up in arms about it like it hasn’t been happening for a decade.

I’m not sure what the solution is.

Edit: last years times were moved up 30 minutes but the years before that mirrored this years tip times.
Not the exact answer you are looking for but iirc on the Williams and Blum pod this is the first time ISU has played on a Thursday sweet sixteen since the Elite 8 run. If true, hopefully history repeats in moving on.
 

RezClone

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I don't think our defense is that unique. No middle defense has been trendy, particularly in the Big XII, the last few years. Baylor and Texas Tech ran it very effectively in recent years. I just think we are doing it better than anybody right now.
Your not wrong. But it is quite different than the pack line or the sticky man that I still think is more associated with high level defensive teams like Virginia and San Diego State.

We see no middle trapping D all the time in the Big 12. The big ten? Almost non existent. At least by anybody who does it really well. Rutgers and Maryland come to mind, and they both play a more traditional sticky man style.