Bracketology 2024

[Cloned4Life]

I don’t think I’m overreacting. I don’t think it’s a big deal if we’re a 2-seed or 3-seed. We’re in good shape for Omaha, and matchup-wise a 3-seed may be better.

Respectfully disagree about the offense. It’s objectively down significantly from where it was. We were flirting with 25th after the Houston game (I think. Someone correct me if I’m wrong) in adjusted O in KenPom. We’re down to 79th in the matter of 5 games.

Agree. If Williams/Blum said something along the lines of “it isn’t down that much” then I cannot take much of what they are saying seriously. Every metric (and if we’re being honest - even in the eye test) tells us our offense has been terrible since Houston, and spiraling into an increasingly negative trend.

We’re seeing a crazy drop in the KP OE metrics in just a matter of weeks - it’s unheard of to drop THAT much that fast this late in the season.

And no, it doesn’t mean we can’t turn it around and it doesn’t mean we can’t still make a long/fun postseason run. It simply means what it is - we’ve been bad offensively for several weeks. Really bad.

 

[cydnote]

I agree but I would rather keep firing mostly open shots than continued out of control drives while throwing up a prayer. I’ll trust CuJo and Milan over out of control Keshon all day long.

Gilbert is now 11 for his last 42 and 2 for 11 from 3. Yet he’s taking almost 10 shots per game…why? Add his 15 turnovers in the last 4 games. I get that he is dinged up but then don’t give him the constant green light. He’s hurting more than he’s helping offensively. Sit him on Thursday to try and get him as healthy as possible because he is a liability on offense right now.

Both sides of the fence there

 

[cycloneworld]

Baylor loss helps us. Alabama loss would have been nice. Duke loss should help but the committee will have a hard on for Duke like they always do and is probably in denial about how bad the ACC is. Think we need to win two in KC to get a 2 seed. If We win one and then lose to Baylor I think you’ve got to give them the nod with 2 head to head wins over us.

Also, we have 8 Quad 1 wins. Only 4 teams in the country have more than us - Houston, Purdue, UCONN, and Baylor. That’s it. That will carry a lot of weight.

I think 1-2 wins locks us as a 2 and if we are 1 and done, we likely are a high 3.

 

[BillBrasky4Cy]

Boy looks like the bracketologists have just been waiting to pounce on ISU. JBR says ISU locked into a 3 seed and possibly a 4 if we go 0-1 in KC. Seems a bit harsh. ISU is still close to having only Q1 losses if VA Tech and KSU can improve their NET just a few spots and not to mention Baylor and Kansas both lost at KSU

There were other losses this week that basically wash out our loss yesterday. Seed wise I don’t think anything has been impacted.

 

[VeloClone]

Were Caleb and Gabe good and reliable to drive to the hoop consistently against P6 teams, compared to Curtis Jones, Gilbert or Tamin?

Yes or no?

Not great, no. But that isn't what you said, is it? Yes or no?

I said they weren't point guards. There is a lot of green between excelling at driving to the hoop against P6 teams and "struggling to dribble without looking at the ball".

You can make your point without hyperbole that simply slams former players.

 

[VeloClone]

Gabe and Grill were great players for us but I think it's very fair to say they were not very good ball handlers

I agree. But that isn't what was said and isn't what I called out.

 

[twincyties]

There were other losses this week that basically wash out our loss yesterday. Seed wise I don’t think anything has been impacted.

I do not disagree with the point you’re making at all. I would just add that “should” and “will” are two different things. To the post you responded to, it does appear the bracketologists are looking for a reason to drop us and we just handed it to them. If we have KU, Baylor, Duke, Arizona, etc on our jersey this does not happen.

 

[madguy30]

I agree. But that isn't what was said and isn't what I called out.

I saw them dribble and look at the ball while dribbling. Players with that kind of limitation aren't going to be reliable at driving to the hoop, and they weren't.

They were great for ISU in other ways that were big parts of ISU's success.

How is that hyperbole?

 

[jcf817]

The biggest thing in ISU's favor is that since the Big XII will have the most teams, much of the exception moving will involve Big XII teams. With ISU a solid #2 in the Coference, I am not worried about them being jossled by other Big XII teams (KU or Baylor being seeded over ISU in Omaha is just not in my worry house at all).

Thanks for easing mind…a bit.

 

[BillBrasky4Cy]

I do not disagree with the point you’re making at all. I would just add that “should” and “will” are two different things. To the post you responded to, it does appear the bracketologists are looking for a reason to drop us and we just handed it to them. If we have KU, Baylor, Duke, Arizona, etc on our jersey this does not happen.

Meh this isn’t some big conspiracy theory.

 

[Cyforce]

Agree. If Williams/Blum said something along the lines of “it isn’t down that much” then I cannot take much of what they are saying seriously. Every metric (and if we’re being honest - even in the eye test) tells us our offense has been terrible since Houston, and spiraling into an increasingly negative trend.

We’re seeing a crazy drop in the KP OE metrics in just a matter of weeks - it’s unheard of to drop THAT much that fast this late in the season.

And no, it doesn’t mean we can’t turn it around and it doesn’t mean we can’t still make a long/fun postseason run. It simply means what it is - we’ve been bad offensively for several weeks. Really bad.

Yet they've won 4 of last 5. Put that in your big bag of metrics. IDGAF if we don't do it the way the basketball purist expect it to be done.

 

[twincyties]

Meh this isn’t some big conspiracy theory.

Any college sport with a subjective ranking system has a long history of propping up certain teams over others. Call it what you want but it always happens.

 

[Cyowa 14]

This is the first year I've followed more than just the big names for bracketology and while I think their are definitely better ones out there than lunardi or Palm and I really like bracketology matrix I think it's getting way out of hand. I'm starting to see way to many of the smaller guys chastising media guys for not being bracketologists like they have a degree in it or something, the media guys aren't claiming to be bracketologists they are just giving opinions my God relax lol. And I will throw in the main thing ive consistently seen from the smaller guys compared to lunardi and Palm is it seems they react a lot more to losses.

 

[alarson]

And ranked road wins? Again, find me any team outside the top few contenders that have a pile of those.

Expanding on your point, there are only 58 ranked road wins across all teams this year. Only one team has 3.

 

[jctisu]

Expanding on your point, there are only 58 ranked road wins across all teams this year. Only one team has 3.

Wow thank you for providing that. Even worse than I thought.

And my favorite, “If the NCAA Tournament was played at Hilton, the Cyclones would be national title contenders. But it isn’t. And the Cyclones aren’t good on the road.”

Well last I checked the tournament isn’t on the road either. It’s not like the teams you play get to play at home.

 

[VeloClone]

This is the first year I've followed more than just the big names for bracketology and while I think their are definitely better ones out there than lunardi or Palm and I really like bracketology matrix I think it's getting way out of hand. I'm starting to see way to many of the smaller guys chastising media guys for not being bracketologists like they have a degree in it or something, the media guys aren't claiming to be bracketologists they are just giving opinions my God relax lol. And I will throw in the main thing ive consistently seen from the smaller guys compared to lunardi and Palm is it seems they react a lot more to losses.

The problem is the perception that whenever a team loses they MUST move down and whenever a team gets a big win they MUST move up. The point is the overall resume. A team could have an awesome resume and be undefeated into February and then lose 3 tough games in a row. Ignore that they just lost and look at their current resume against other teams. Despite the recent losses they might still have the best resume and still desrve to be rated #1.

This is also a problem with poll voters. They rarely just look at the resume and start each week with a blank ballot. They concentrate on "moving" teams based on their performance the past week rather than reranking based on total resume. That is why a loss at the end of the football season is unrecoverable when a loss at the beginning of the season often hardly matters. It is also why if you aren't ranked preseason you have little to no chance of being accurately ranked for most or all of the season even if you are tearing it up.

It is just lazy.

 

[Gunnerclone]

JFC I'm not saying I could take them one on one. They are/were D1 players, but not with the same athleticism as many of their opponents.

I was at the OU game last year.

Both Gabe and Caleb got out on run outs in the open court and looked at the ball while dribbling.

It's a concrete observation and one factor (speed etc. being another) in what limits an offense.

**** you ******* go play them one on one and find out. Lol.

 

[Gunnerclone]

Wow thank you for providing that. Even worse than I thought.

And my favorite, “If the NCAA Tournament was played at Hilton, the Cyclones would be national title contenders. But it isn’t. And the Cyclones aren’t good on the road.”

Well last I checked the tournament isn’t on the road either. It’s not like the teams you play get to play at home.

When I read that blurb I was shocked. I was like, “is that the best road record in the league?”.

 

[Cyhig]

We are certainly vulnerable to a first-round upset because we go on long scoring droughts. We are really strong defensively, but if we can’t score, we can’t put teams away. I’ve seen people compare us to Virginia, which is probably a good comparison. UVa is capable of beating anyone (2019 national championship) but also losing to anyone (UMBC and Furman upsets). That’s where we’re at.

We’ve also now established a trend where TJ’s teams struggle at the end of the year. 2 years ago we had to beat a lousy K-State team on the road to feel good about getting in the tourney despite a stellar non con and conference start. Last year speaks for itself (the Pitt game is probably a top-10 worst ISU game all time). This year we’ve been getting wins, but are struggling to even reach 60 points the last 5 games

ISU has had no issues dominating against sub 125 net ranking teams this season. The first round game will likely be against a sub 125 net ranking team. I have no concerns about the opening round. ISU will likely create a ton of live ball turnovers leading to easy baskets, just like much of their non conference season.

If you want to debate if ISU will make it to the second weekend, that’s a topic I think may have validity. But if ISU plays in Omaha, it’ll likely feel like a home game. I like their chances to go to the S16

 

[mynameisjonas]

Literally, the only scenario that would surprise me is if we win the national championship. I wouldn’t be surprised if we got the final four and I wouldn’t be surprised if we lost in the first round.