2018-2019 computer projections thread

[Sigmapolis]

I thought I would make a thread for updating projections throughout the season. This comes up across several threads, so I thought to centralize it here for everybody.

Some of this will be predictive on a game-by-game or season basis, some of this will be chances of making the tournament, some of this will be bracketology, and everything else.



After going 2-1 on Maui...

KemPom has us #19 in the country with the #18 offense and #30 defense.



Barttovik has us #18 in the country.

Additionally, that ranking system gave us a perfect score of 100 for our game against San Diego State. That score basically means you played like a Top 5 team that night.

The 96 against UIUC and the 95 against the Tigers were also impressive. Anything 90+ usually gives you a good chance to win a Big 12 game, and 95+ almost guarantees it.



We have five cupcakes coming up and a surprisingly salty Iowa, which their system gives us a 41% chance to win right now. All goes well, we should be 10-2 or 11-1 going into Big 12 play, which puts us in excellent position for fighting for an NCAA tournament berth.

If we split Iowa and Ole Miss, we could go 9-9 (or even 8-10) in the Big 12 and comfortably make the tournament without much for heroics down in Kansas City.

Their projections (not a bracketology if the tournament started today, but their projections once the season has played itself out) have us on the #4 or #5 line right now...



That collapse against Arizona was still frustrating, but I think the Maui trip was overall a successful one. Combine 2-1 with the win over Missouri, and we are on the right track.

 

[LLCoolCY]

Thanks for putting this together Sig.

Good perspective on how the Cyclones wins are comparing to the other teams.

The numbers look very good so far.

It will be interesting to see how they change once the team gets back to full strength.

 

[Cyclonepride]

I still don't view that Arizona game as a collapse. Yes, I think that we're better than Arizona, so it's a game that we should have won, but we continued to move the ball well and get open shots, and defend well and force them to take tough shots. We just missed our open ones and they hit their guarded ones. It happens.

 

[BCClone]

With the 4 out and the youth of the team, also add in two transfers just starting, the Maui trip couldn’t have went much better. I know winning it all would have been best, but winning the last two will help with confidence and team building. We two back in a week that will help out with a minimum of depth and whenever solo and wig get back we should be rolling.

 

[Sigmapolis]

Up to 69% (snickers) after demolishing San Diego State yesterday...



For reference, we were at 51% before the Maui tournament.

Increasing our chances 18% after three games -- both by solidifying two toss-up games as wins, increasing our season win expectation by around one and by making the computer rankings like us more because of our very efficient games against Illinois and San Diego and our good game against a good/decent Arizona team -- is nice.

Our projected record in the Big 12 remained at 10-8, though. Going a game above 0.500 like that would almost certainly qualify us for the NCAA tournament.

 

[Cyclonepride]

Up to 69% (snickers) after demolishing San Diego State yesterday...

View attachment 60238

For reference, we were at 51% before the Maui tournament.

Increasing our chances 18% after three games -- both by solidifying two toss-up games as wins, increasing our season win expectation by around one and by making the computer rankings like us more because of our very efficient games against Illinois and San Diego and our good game against a good/decent Arizona team -- is nice.

Our projected record in the Big 12 remained at 10-8, though. Going a game above 0.500 like that would almost certainly qualify us for the NCAA tournament.

I’ll take the over on that 10-8

 

[FinalFourCy]

Up to 69% (snickers) after demolishing San Diego State yesterday...

View attachment 60238

For reference, we were at 51% before the Maui tournament.

Increasing our chances 18% after three games -- both by solidifying two toss-up games as wins, increasing our season win expectation by around one and by making the computer rankings like us more because of our very efficient games against Illinois and San Diego and our good game against a good/decent Arizona team -- is nice.

Our projected record in the Big 12 remained at 10-8, though. Going a game above 0.500 like that would almost certainly qualify us for the NCAA tournament.

Being a 7-seed would feel a lot like the 2011-12 and 2012-13 teams being 8 and 10 seeds imo.

 

[bosco]

Up to 69% (snickers) after demolishing San Diego State yesterday...

View attachment 60238

For reference, we were at 51% before the Maui tournament.

Increasing our chances 18% after three games -- both by solidifying two toss-up games as wins, increasing our season win expectation by around one and by making the computer rankings like us more because of our very efficient games against Illinois and San Diego and our good game against a good/decent Arizona team -- is nice.

Our projected record in the Big 12 remained at 10-8, though. Going a game above 0.500 like that would almost certainly qualify us for the NCAA tournament.

So that's just based on the team on the floor I'm guessing? They don't account for the players out?

 

[Sigmapolis]

So that's just based on the team on the floor I'm guessing? They don't account for the players out?

KenPom is looking at team efficiencies.

Barttovik builds up player efficiencies into team efficiencies, but it is not clear that they note that you have guys out when they do their projections.

I think the general answer is that "no" these systems do not really account for the fact that Lindell, Cam, Solo, and Zoran are on the bench.

 

[Psiclone]

Up to 69% (snickers) after demolishing San Diego State yesterday...

View attachment 60238

For reference, we were at 51% before the Maui tournament.

Increasing our chances 18% after three games -- both by solidifying two toss-up games as wins, increasing our season win expectation by around one and by making the computer rankings like us more because of our very efficient games against Illinois and San Diego and our good game against a good/decent Arizona team -- is nice.

Our projected record in the Big 12 remained at 10-8, though. Going a game above 0.500 like that would almost certainly qualify us for the NCAA tournament.

I am assuming the bracketology does not take into account our depleted roster? If so, it's an underestimation of ISU's potential.

 

[Sigmapolis]

I am assuming the bracketology does not take into account our depleted roster? If so, it's an underestimation of ISU's potential.

I would agree the sentiment above is likely. I will note, though, that some of our "replacements" are playing rather well. If I may make some comparisons below.

Barttovik "PRPG" (essentially a WAR for college basketball, though the number is not wins per 162 like baseball, but rather net points per 100 possessions)...

FOUR GUYS ON THE BENCH LAST SEASON
===
3.1 = Lard
3.0 = Wigginton
1.9 = Young
1.4 = Talley

Now, these guys can be better than last season, but imagine this as a floor.

Compared to our eight rotation guys right now...

THE EIGHT MEN WHO PLAYED ON MAUI
===
5.8 = Jacobson
4.6 = Shayok
3.9 = Weiler-Babb
3.4 = Horton-Tucker
2.9 = Haliburton
0.2 = Lewis
-0.3 = Griffin
-0.4 = Conditt

(not counting Eric Steyer and his 0.8 in limited minutes )

If Jacobson, THT, and Haliburton were replacements, well, they are giving us more this season than the guys on the bench did last season. They will keep playing.

This is why I think the following...

-- For now, Jacobson, Shayok, Nick, and THT are untouchable in the starting lineup
-- We will see if Lard can be clear cut better than Michael once he is back
-- If not, and assuming his head is in the right place, Lard could be an absolute nightmare for opponents as a bench energy guy and running the floor
-- Haliburton will give his starting spot to Lindell
-- Haliburton is still going to play a lot, though, and I think he will be ahead of Talley
-- Solomon will play, but not start, backing up the post slots
-- Might not see a ton of Talley, Lewis, Griffin, and Conditt going forward

So we are replacing our marginal bench players, who were playing each roughly 10-15 minutes per night, with productivity to rival our starters.

That will definitely garner a few points of efficiency per 100, which will push us further up in the rankings compared to where we even are right now.

 

[Cyclonepride]

Everyone seems to want to write off Talley, but I’m not buying it. He’s not going to get starter minutes, but I wouldn’t be surprised to see 12-15

 

[Sigmapolis]

Everyone seems to want to write off Talley, but I’m not buying it. He’s not going to get starter minutes, but I wouldn’t be surprised to see 12-15

There are 200 minutes to go around.

With 200 minutes and an eight-man rotation, that is 25 per man.

How about we say the five starters play 30 per night? That is playing them hard, yes, but they are your best five, so you want to use them but not run them into the ground.

That leaves you 50 after the starters take up 150 (5 * 30).

50 / 3 = 16.67

I do not think Prohm, or any other decent coach, is going to run a rotation beyond 7-8. It comes to the point where minutes are just sliced too finely to make a coherent rotation.

As I said above, I think these six are undeniably "above the line" unless something further funny happens with eligibility, injury, suspensions, or anything else:

NWB, Wigginton, Horton-Tucker, Shayok, Jacobson, Lard

That leaves you 1-2 more spots for the rest.

I think one of those has to be Solomon. He gives size and strength that we will need in the Big 12 that nobody else has, and we are going to need another five fouls down on the block. The other has to be a guard/wing to backup the four guard/wing starters we have.

At that point, I think it comes down to which you like of Lewis, Talley, and Haliburton.

Haliburton is already playing well as a starter for 35+ per night and would make an excellent bench guard. Even if he and Talley are close, I say play the young guy. Do not get me wrong, I like Zoran, but I think he might just be the last man out and passed up by an underrated talent coming out of high school who will only improve with experience.

Haliburton is proving a very pleasant surprise. I imagine he probably starts next season, and I actually think that will work out rather well once he does.

 

[Psiclone]

Everyone seems to want to write off Talley, but I’m not buying it. He’s not going to get starter minutes, but I wouldn’t be surprised to see 12-15

Agree. Shayok, Weiler-Babb are 5th year seniors, Jacobson is a fourth year junior. They are also the steadiest players game in, game out. I think Talley, also a 5th year senior, gets significant PT. He was very productive at the end of last year and I expect he'll be better this season with extra practice shooting, working out, etc., as well as his experience.

 

[bosco]

Everyone seems to want to write off Talley, but I’m not buying it. He’s not going to get starter minutes, but I wouldn’t be surprised to see 12-15

Talley is our most versatile defender. He can guard 1-4; Is a plus rebounder; good going to the rim and running the floor.

 

[Cyclonepride]

There are 200 minutes to go around.

With 200 minutes and an eight-man rotation, that is 25 per man.

How about we say the five starters play 30 per night? That is playing them hard, yes, but they are your best five, so you want to use them but not run them into the ground.

That leaves you 50 after the starters take up 150 (5 * 30).

50 / 3 = 16.67

I do not think Prohm, or any other decent coach, is going to run a rotation beyond 7-8. It comes to the point where minutes are just sliced too finely to make a coherent rotation.

As I said above, I think these six are undeniably "above the line" unless something further funny happens with eligibility, injury, suspensions, or anything else:

NWB, Wigginton, Horton-Tucker, Shayok, Jacobson, Lard

That leaves you 1-2 more spots for the rest.

I think one of those has to be Solomon. He gives size and strength that we will need in the Big 12 that nobody else has, and we are going to need another five fouls down on the block. The other has to be a guard/wing to backup the four guard/wing starters we have.

At that point, I think it comes down to which you like of Lewis, Talley, and Haliburton.

Haliburton is already playing well as a starter for 35+ per night and would make an excellent bench guard. Even if he and Talley are close, I say play the young guy. Do not get me wrong, I like Zoran, but I think he might just be the last man out and passed up by an underrated talent coming out of high school who will only improve with experience.

Haliburton is proving a very pleasant surprise. I imagine he probably starts next season, and I actually think that will work out rather well once he does.

With all due respect to your fancy mathing, I think we could get after it more, press more, run more and go 10 deep.

 

[ISUCyclone06]

Talley will play more than 15 min/game. The dude can flat out ball.

 

[FinalFourCy]

With all due respect to your fancy mathing, I think we could get after it more, press more, run more and go 10 deep.

True, and hopefully there will be a lot more games in which the staff can invest minutes into the bench while resting guys.

Sig is also underestimating the skewness in his data set. No longer will off nights or foul trouble nights be offset by nights in which they play nearly 40 minutes. The median may be close, albeit less than, his estimates, but the mean will allow for Talley to get minutes.

 

[bozclone]

It is possible that CSP could take more of an NBA approach. NBA teams will often have a deeper rotation because the will have two units. Often the second unit includes only 4 players and a starter is carried into that group. CSP will need to figure out how deep we can go without a drop off and then make a rotation that works. Look at CMC, he is playing more guys than we have traditionally seen, but he is developing players by making sure guys that are ready get snaps. He is doing this and still winning

 

[jpete24]

I think the more players you have to rotate, the more likely you’re going to have a “hot hand” for the night either as a starter or coming off the bench. I wouldn’t be surprised to see 9-10 guys out there on the stat sheet every game, and the hot hand stays out for 25+ minutes that game.