NFL: 2022 Fantasy Football Discussion
- Thread starter CloneGuy8
- Start date
Don't think any would be a 'miss' but of the three I'd go Allen, pretty easily. I think he's OC-proof. Just so good.
Allen but Herbert is a close 2nd. ESPN has Burrow listed as their QB8 for 2022 at the moment and I'd probably say that is fair based on last year's fantasy points. He maybe creeps into the top 5 if he plays like he did late in the season. The guy I would keep an eye on that you may be able to nab a few rounds later after the top QBs start to come off is Russell Wilson. He was a top 5 fantasy QB in 2020 and the trade to Denver may spark a return to top 10 status again if he can stay healthy so I could see him as a sneaky sleeper pick this year if you miss out on some of the bigger names or want to wait longer to take a QB.
For me when to draft a QB is tricky because usually the top guys score the most fantasy points by far before a WR or RB do yet everyone jumps all over the top guys at those positions first. I'm usually drafting a QB by round 3 or 4 after I nab the best RB and WR I can. In my league last year Allen was the top points guy at 459 that I took with the 3rd pick in round 3 and the first non QB points guy was Kupp (I had him too and got him in round 5) at with 439 points 4th overall. After that it was all QBs until 12 where Davante Adams has 344. You basically have a 100 point gap most years between the top handful of QB's until the first non-QB shows up on the list so I don't mind reaching for the first QB in the draft in round 3 if no one has broke the ice yet because he's going to score more than either of the 1st 2 guys you took by a lot. If you wait too long then you may miss out on a guy that could essentially score twice as many points than a guy you might draft in the 3rd or 4th round that is not a QB.
Matthew Berry's fantasy football 2022 rankings (espn.com)
For me when to draft a QB is tricky because usually the top guys score the most fantasy points by far before a WR or RB do yet everyone jumps all over the top guys at those positions first. I'm usually drafting a QB by round 3 or 4 after I nab the best RB and WR I can. In my league last year Allen was the top points guy at 459 that I took with the 3rd pick in round 3 and the first non QB points guy was Kupp (I had him too and got him in round 5) at with 439 points 4th overall. After that it was all QBs until 12 where Davante Adams has 344. You basically have a 100 point gap most years between the top handful of QB's until the first non-QB shows up on the list so I don't mind reaching for the first QB in the draft in round 3 if no one has broke the ice yet because he's going to score more than either of the 1st 2 guys you took by a lot. If you wait too long then you may miss out on a guy that could essentially score twice as many points than a guy you might draft in the 3rd or 4th round that is not a QB.
Matthew Berry's fantasy football 2022 rankings (espn.com)
Quick notes:
- I'm taking Cooper Kupp over everyone but Johnathan Taylor.
- Deshaun Watson QB5? Is he assuming no suspension?
- Tyreek Hill falls to WR8.
- Cordarrelle Patterson seems like a steal at RB32.
I do an auction draft, and see guys spending upwards of $40 or more on the top QBs. Makes zero sense to me. I got Tom Brady for $12, and I actually was hoping to spend $10 at the most but I really wanted Brady. So some guys are spending $30-$40 on a QB like Allen, I'm spending $12 on a QB like Brady. Last year Allen averaged 24.5 pts per week, Brady averaged 22.75 pts per week. I'll gladly let them spend $25 more on their QB when it's only netting them maybe 2-3 more points on average per week.
Kupp likely will not repeat what he did but he definitely is up there going into 2022. I don't get Watson either, his WR group is nothing impressive even with the addition of Cooper. I think Hill's fall is fair given he will have Tua not Mahomes throwing to him. And CP is a steal at that rank but he may have been lightning in a bottle last year. He's 31 and at the age RB start to decline and with changing from Ryan to Mariotta who is more mobile will be interesting if that changes how the offense runs too.
I can pick 1 keeper in my league. Will wait to see what pick I have in the draft but assuming Kupp will be a 1st rounder so depends on how high of pick I have if I keep him or another guy on my roster that may have value later on as do have some sneaky breakout guys I snatched up later in the season that will not be drafted in the first few rounds.
I lost in my championship game and I can single handedly probably blame it on taking Aaron Jones over Taylor with my first pick last year. I busted with my 1st 2 picks in Jones and Hopkins but hit some home runs after that with Allen, James Robinson, Kupp, and Swift. Fournette in the 12th round was another one that really paid off as he was RB6 on the season
Used to be in a 12 team 2 QB league that did an auction draft and guys would spend crazy $ on QB because you had to with having to start 2. Glad I am not in that league anymore, the draft too forever and waivers were crazy every time a QB was injured or replaced with a backup.
Couple things that stood out to me too:
-Drafting McCaffrey at 2 seems like a recipe for disappointment
-No Russel Wilson on the list?
-Cam Akers feels overrated to me
-Mark Andrews new TE1
You're playing fantasy wrong then. I always wait on a QB and have never drafted one in the Top 5 rounds every year and I make the playoffs at about an 80% clip after 17 years in our league.
You're correct that they score alot more than the top rbs, and wrs but your problem with that theory is the top qbs don't score alot more than other players at the position.
I've had alot of success recently in my league with guys like Roethlisberger and Brees, and last year I had Wilson/Burrow all year. All of those guys are borderline QB1s the years I had them.
If you take the top 2 or 3 Qbs every year and compare on a ppg basis they usually only outscore qbs in the 10-15 range by a couple points on average. Its just not that much of a statistical difference to justify it when rounds 3-5 are full of league winners at other positions. Cooper Kupp and Mark Andrews were both league winners last year and were taken in the 4th and 5th round respectively in my league.
As far as the OP question, I'd go with Allen, hes proven commodity and the other two jsut won't putup the rushing numbers he will.
My league used to be a snake draft and I rarely took a QB earlier than round 8-9. There was usually a Matt Stafford (Detroit) or Philip Rivers type QB there for me. Agree with you, much rather stack up my RBs and WRs in those earlier rounds.
It looks like the point differential from the #1 Allen down to #10 was about 5ppg. But then if you compare the guys in that 4-5 range last year like Mahomes to guys in the 8-12 range that you can get alot later it drops down to around 2-3ppg.
I'm with you, I'd rather stack up rbs and receivers early. Heck, last year I picked up Burrow off the scrap pile when Wilson went down and Burrow finished as the QB9 I think and I got him for free.
Did a public draft tonight to prep for the draft I do with my friends. Ended up taking Breece in the 3rd and Lazard in the 8th. Cooper Kupp was my first pick at #4.
In the past I really haven't drafted WRs in the first round, always gone with an RB, but this year I really like Kupp and Jefferson in the first especially if it is full PPR.
I really want to draft Breece, but I am a little nervous to take him early based on how much opportunity he will get. I know he will be great when he gets the ball
This was just a public league I don't care about and wanted an idea of how the drafts will go. The Hall and Lazard picks were homer picks, but neither was that much of a reach (especially Hall) based on ratings. Lazard could be WR1 in GB, so he might have been a steal in the 8th.
Yeah that makes sense. I think Breece has huge upside
I think Lazard has so much value, he seems to be the WR1 paired with a future hall of fame QB. Seems like a great pick in the 8th round. Although I am a huge homer
I took over someone else's Dynasty this team year and I have no idea what to do with it. Can't decide on any range between selling off and fully tanking it, out to waiting until the trade deadline to sell some pieces, all to doing nothing at all. Way, way harder to make decisions on than a redraft team and I'm unfamiliar with managing it.
My main league has been together for 12 years. We have always done redraft in the past but this year we are switching to a Dynasty. I'm excited but also nervous.
Anyone else do a Dynasty? Better or worse than redraft?
