2023-2024 MBB computer projections thread

[Sigmapolis]

I think the metrics fall down when it comes to specific games, particularly important specific games and more specifically, important specific games in the tournament. I've watched Illinois 5 or so times this year, and at no point was I impressed with their defense. Clearly they've stepped it up when it mattered.

Yeah, they clearly could play better defense than their usual when they wanted to.

I wasn't surprised by that. I also knew Shannon was going to "get his" but I just hoped a little bit less or at a little bit less efficiency... slow him down just a bit more and it's a win.

Alas. Still a great season.

 

[Cyclonepride]

Yeah, they clearly could play better defense than their usual when they wanted to.

I wasn't surprised by that. I also knew Shannon was going to "get his" but I just hoped a little bit less or at a little bit less efficiency... slow him down just a bit more and it's a win.

Alas. Still a great season.

I think TJ pointed that out as a key postgame. Early on, they found ways to get him wide open shots to get him rolling, and that's something that we wanted to take away early. Those shots really roll off the fingers when you've got a nice lead, and much less so when it's tight or you're behind.

 

[Sigmapolis]

I think TJ pointed that out as a key postgame. Early on, they found ways to get him wide open shots to get him rolling, and that's something that we wanted to take away early. Those shots really roll off the fingers when you've got a nice lead, and much less so when it's tight or you're behind.

The game last night reminded me of the Sweet Sixteen game against Miami in Chicago. I actually had higher expectations of winning that game after how they played in Milwaukee against LSU and Wisconsin than I did against Illinois last night. I knew Illinois was going to put up some points no matter what.

Same deal... played from behind most of the game, couldn't ever seem to get over the hump... didn't do enough to slow Kameron McGusty down and he eventually buried us in the last ten minutes.

Pretty much the same story with Illinois save subbing out Chicago for Boston and McGusty for Shannon (each being former Big 12 guys, OU and Tech respectively, who moved into other conferences).

 

[Cyclonepride]

The game last night reminded me of the Sweet Sixteen game against Miami in Chicago. I actually had higher expectations of winning that game after how they played in Milwaukee against LSU and Wisconsin than I did against Illinois last night. I knew Illinois was going to put up some points no matter what.

Same deal... played from behind most of the game, couldn't ever seem to get over the hump... didn't do enough to slow Kameron McGusty down and he eventually buried us in the last ten minutes.

Pretty much the same story with Illinois save subbing out Chicago for Boston and McGusty for Shannon (each being former Big 12 guys, OU and Tech respectively, who moved into other conferences).

Luckily, we played way better against Illinois

 

[Sigmapolis]

Luckily, we played way better against Illinois

I don't know if we played "better" relative to our potential.

This team was just better than the one from two years ago.

Brockington and Kalscheur get minutes on this team. Hunter, Kunc, and maybe some Grill get some spot minutes, though it's hard to want to take Lipsey or Gilbert off the court for their sake.

Nobody else on that team even comes close to playing on this one.

 

[herbicide]

Pick either the slow start, or the missed easy layups/dunks. Fix either one and we win last night. That simple.

Now I don't give too much to the 11/25 (or whatever) stat that has been mentioned, because many of those 25 (or so) were contested.

But I do give and beg lots of consideration to the relatively uncontested or easy ones we missed, especially down the stretch.

 

[jctisu]

Pick either the slow start, or the missed easy layups/dunks. Fix either one and we win last night. That simple.

Now I don't give too much to the 11/25 (or whatever) stat that has been mentioned, because many of those 25 (or so) were contested.

But I do give and beg lots of consideration to the relatively uncontested or easy ones we missed, especially down the stretch.

I would agree, I think Illinois' length and contesting played a factor in some of those missed layups or bunnies. But we definitely had 4-5 absolutely zero excuse to miss, layups that really hurt.

 

[madguy30]

I think the metrics fall down when it comes to specific games, particularly important specific games and more specifically, important specific games in the tournament. I've watched Illinois 5 or so times this year, and at no point was I impressed with their defense. Clearly they've stepped it up when it mattered.

I think they got in the rhythm of conference play in rolling with their strength, then got some time to sync up the D.

Similar to ISU's offense after the KSU game.

The challenge for IL would be to sustain it for two games when UConn has more dudes.

 

[interrobang]

I don't see one started for next year yet, but Bart Torvik has his 2025 page updated.

https://barttorvik.com/trankpre.php

 

[CascadeClone]

I don't see one started for next year yet, but Bart Torvik has his 2025 page updated.

https://barttorvik.com/trankpre.php

View attachment 127927

That's somewhat encouraging.

Any idea what the projections looked like for last year? I couldn't find a link on BT, but sometimes its hard to navigate around there.

 

[interrobang]

https://barttorvik.com/trank-time-machine.php

I think this is the correct one. Or shows preseason for last year in the title. Looks like we were #48 on last years.

 

[CyPunch]

Any idea what the projections looked like for last year? I couldn't find a link on BT, but sometimes its hard to navigate around there.

Preseason 2023-2024

Bartorrvik: #48

KenPom: #31

 

[Halincandenza]

I don't see one started for next year yet, but Bart Torvik has his 2025 page updated.

https://barttorvik.com/trankpre.php

View attachment 127927

They don't have Houston or Duke's roster correct. Duke is lower and Houston is higher. Houston actually one when you add Roberts and Wilson back on.

 

[cycloneworld]

 

[dahliaclone]

 

[AirWalke]

Figured I would see this thread when I saw the news this morning. HYPE TRAIN COMMENCING

 

[cydnote]

Figured I would see this thread when I saw the news this morning. HYPE TRAIN COMMENCING

I'm enjoying the hype as much as the next guy, but flying under the radar would be the more enviable position. Too many fans are going consider the season as a failure if we don't meet some lofty expectations. I'm just so thankful this era of Cyclones men's basketball is on the trajectory it is and I hope I can maintain my exuberance thru the ups and downs that are sure to happen.

 

[MJ271]

They don't have Houston or Duke's roster correct. Duke is lower and Houston is higher. Houston actually one when you add Roberts and Wilson back on.

Yeah, worthwhile to note that this is a constantly changing list due to the changing rosters. Otz filled up several of the transfer spots quickly, so that gives the ISU roster a leg up on everyone else for the time being.

 

[CascadeClone]

Preseason 2023-2024

Bartorrvik: #48

KenPom: #31

I was more curious how the Top 10-20 ended up. Like, is it a good predictor of a good season? or is it pretty random.

 

[CascadeClone]

I'm enjoying the hype as much as the next guy, but flying under the radar would be the more enviable position. Too many fans are going consider the season as a failure if we don't meet some lofty expectations. I'm just so thankful this era of Cyclones men's basketball is on the trajectory it is and I hope I can maintain my exuberance thru the ups and downs that are sure to happen.

As soon as someone misses a layup, the rot will be setting in and TJ will be out of gas.

God help us if Keyshon is also not breaking a sweat...