Addressing the Elephant in the Room

Cyinthenorth

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Iowa State travels to Norman, OK this Saturday in what is a much less-anticipated game than it should be.

ISU opened as a +9 point dog. I see the line currently rests at +4. so the public has apparently lost all faith in OU after a disheartening loss that for all intents and purposes eliminates them from playoff contention.

FAVORABLE BETS: My interpretation is that both of these teams have had underwhelming seasons. ISU to a greater extent, since OU while sputtering, was at least managing to win games until last weekend. What this comes down to, I think, is which team has quit more. OU still has, or should have, Big 12 championship aspirations. But maybe they are ho-hum about it having won so many consecutive, plus they are on their way out. ISU really doesn't have anything to play for at this point, maybe a .5% chance at playing in the Big 12 title game, plus jockeying for bowl game position. Not sure they'll be amped up enough to travel down Norman and come out with a win. They have had serious issues being ready out of the gate for road games this year, and tend to get blitzed especially in the 1st half of these games (Baylor, WVU, TTU). I will be looking to bet on the 1st half line in favor of OU whenever that comes out, not sure what it will be, but probably will bet it in favor of OU. With ISU's performance on the road (1-3 in Big 12 games) I really want to put serious money on the current line of OU -4. It seems like easy money as of today.

REASON FOR PAUSE: I do know that ISU plays well following a loss (blowout W's against UNLV, KU, and UT following 3 previous losses). We also know that this is a game Campbell has had circled for months, thinking the stakes would probably be higher. OU is having QB carousel issues. This makes me less likely to put money on OU -4, but I still am not confident in betting ISU +4 simply for the reasons mentioned above.

Game total is currently at 60, I've got no read there but could see a shootout being more likely than a slog, just with the way our defense has been playing and with both teams pissed off following tough losses.

Anyone else have a read on this one, from a betting perspective?
 

Farnsworth

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I would have maybe taken it at 9, probably not 4. Don't see us getting destroyed, but could see another good nutshot happening.
 

drmwevr08

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The problem betting on college kids is that they are a bit less predictable. I would think OU would still be in the season enough to want to piss pound someone one more time and if that's the case, I don't think ISU can do enough about it to cover 4. If OU has given up, I got nothing.
 

Cyinthenorth

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The problem betting on college kids is that they are a bit less predictable. I would think OU would still be in the season enough to want to piss pound someone one more time and if that's the case, I don't think ISU can do enough about it to cover 4. If OU has given up, I got nothing.
I am not sure OU is capable of piss pounding anyone. They won by 3 TD against TCU and Tech, and destroyed a couple of FCS schools, but otherwise have played in relatively tight games. One thing I failed to mention in my initial post is the possible look-ahead factor for OU heading into the Bedlame game v.s. OSU. I bet that is the biggest reason the number has come back in ISU's favor so much.
 

Cyclonick182

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OU is going to be ready to kill someone after dropping the Baylor game. My heart says Clones but my wallet says Boomer Sooner.
 

Sigmapolis

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Oklahoma can still win the B12 and has an outside shot at the playoff if a few things break their way. They definitely hurt their chances against Baylor, but they're not 100% screwed yet.

At the same time, ISU and Oklahoma has turned into something of a miniature rivalry in football the past few years. One that is going to end soon, but that makes it all the more intense with both sides wanting to divorce from the other with permanent bragging rights. This is ISU's last chance this season for a signature, statement victory to go with Oklahoma State, so I think the team is going to be well-motivated.

I don't see this being a lame game between two checked out teams. Quite the opposite.
 
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Cyinthenorth

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Oklahoma can still win the B12 and has an outside shot at the playoff if a few things break their way. They definitely hurt their chances against Baylor, but they're not 100% screwed yet.

At the same time, ISU and Oklahoma has turned into something of a miniature rivalry in football the past few years. One that is going to end soon, but that makes it all the more intense with both sides wanting to divorce from the other with permanent bragging rights. This is ISU's last chance this season for a signature, statement victory to go with Oklahoma State, so I think the team is going to be well-motivated.

I don't see this being a lame game between two checked out teams. Quite the opposite.
So I should bet the Over 60 you think?
 
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fsanford

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ISU will play loose, pressure and target is off their back. Might actually see the ISU of last year.

If OU loses, then Bedlam is a play in game for Big 12 title game.
 

AppleCornCy

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Interested to see what the QB position looks like for Oklahoma. I’m assuming Williams will start, but do they give him the hook again if he struggles? ISU needs to prepare for both QBs.
 

vortex

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Oklahoma shouldn't put fear in anyone, they are pretenders. Iowa State wins in Norman.
 
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