Big 12 Expansion (New New Thread)

[Gilbyone]

The Last "New Thread" lasted 10 months and resulted in many many too many comments covering too much time. So here is a New New Thread to focus on the second conference alignment upheaval in a short year.

So, My opinion is: PAC - take them all, take some, go after other east coast teams, or sleep and wait to become wolf meat again.

I say "GO BIG OR GO HOME. Negotiate a merger with the remaining PAC teams and add two more from the east to make the first mega conference of 24 teams. All teams will benefit from away game exposure across the country. Create either three or four divisions with separate tv packages for each (1st & second tier rights) and go after the new streaming channels that are now looking at college sports to fill their broadcast needs (third and fourth tier rights). No more non-conference games. The broadcasters do not want to show games against Louisiana Crawdad College, or Slowpoke University or Montana Wool Gatherers Academy.

How would you like to play regular season games in December in California, Arizona and Florida?

Go Clones
Go Big 12

 

[FAN4ISU]

Make the new Big Pac conference!

 

[WhoISthis]

Pac10 insider Canzano was on a podcast today. He pretty much said SDSU, Fresno or SMU were the likely adds.

Are Cal and Stanford really going to stay for that? Playing two Cal St schools?

Are Cal and Stanford staying at all, is probably a better question with the BIG still looming. Seems like a 'no' if they are signing off on those additions.

Those mountain schools and UW/Oregon we are targeting can stay to play Cal St schools and the 3rd most popular small religious school in Texas, meanwhile the Big 12 added Utah's big brother which also owns the PAC, a CFP participant, and one of the PAC's top targets a year ago

https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/th...1480292660

 

[BWRhasnoAC]

OP has a what seems to be a good idea. That means it will never happen.

 

[t-noah]

Make the new Big Pac conference!

Two all-beef patties, special sauce, lettuce, cheese, pickles, onions, on a sesame seed bun!

 

[CascadeClone]

I gotta rec for the Montana Wool Gatherers Academy

 

[JM4CY]

Meh, just add Arizona schools and rename at that point:

Plains And the Wide Gap State

 

[BWRhasnoAC]

Meh, just add Arizona schools and rename at that point:

Plains And the Wide Gap State

Naughty.

 

[pourcyne]

Two all-beef patties, special sauce, lettuce, cheese, pickles, onions, on a sesame seed bun!

As long as ISU is one of the all-beef and/or the special sauce, great. That leaves 16 sesame seeds.

 

[JM4CY]

Naughty.

 

[4theCYcle]

If anyone wants a good follow on some of this conference expansion, follow MHver3 on twitter. This person has been on top of it and seems to have good sources with their information. The information has depth and details that I haven't found anywhere else. Even Dobbs.

 

[BCClone]

If anyone wants a good follow on some of this conference expansion, follow MHver3 on twitter. This person has been on top of it and seems to have good sources with their information. The information has depth and details that I haven't found anywhere else. Even Dobbs.

I think he is a brother to Wilmer and Dobbs. Maybe even The Dude also.

 

[CyCrazy]

If anyone wants a good follow on some of this conference expansion, follow MHver3 on twitter. This person has been on top of it and seems to have good sources with their information. The information has depth and details that I haven't found anywhere else. Even Dobbs.

He is an idiot.

 

[TheHelgo]

I think he is a brother to Wilmer and Dobbs. Maybe even The Dude also.

MHver3 and The Dude have always 'hated' each other for some reason. Maybe they are the same person, and that is their schtick

 

[4theCYcle]

Huh, guess I didn't know the history and had his posts just start randomly showing up on my thread. Whoops lol.

At least I gave some a good laugh!

 

[BCClone]

Huh, guess I didn't know the history and had his posts just start randomly showing up on my thread. Whoops lol.

At least I gave some a good laugh!

Honestly thought you were being a smartass and joking around with as much as we beat his stuff up here.

 

[4theCYcle]

Well, I hadn't read stuff in here awhile so maybe I should have played it off like that So the general consensus is that people on here dislike him quite a bit. Got it.

 

[snowcraig2.0]

MHver3 and The Dude have always 'hated' each other for some reason. Maybe they are the same person, and that is their schtick

MHver3 is up to like 12k Twitter followers. that is crazy. He'll get a blue check mark soon .

 

[exCyDing]

The Last "New Thread" lasted 10 months and resulted in many many too many comments covering too much time. So here is a New New Thread to focus on the second conference alignment upheaval in a short year.

So, My opinion is: PAC - take them all, take some, go after other east coast teams, or sleep and wait to become wolf meat again.

I say "GO BIG OR GO HOME. Negotiate a merger with the remaining PAC teams and add two more from the east to make the first mega conference of 24 teams. All teams will benefit from away game exposure across the country. Create either three or four divisions with separate tv packages for each (1st & second tier rights) and go after the new streaming channels that are now looking at college sports to fill their broadcast needs (third and fourth tier rights). No more non-conference games. The broadcasters do not want to show games against Louisiana Crawdad College, or Slowpoke University or Montana Wool Gatherers Academy.

How would you like to play regular season games in December in California, Arizona and Florida?

Go Clones
Go Big 12

I understand the sentiment of go big or go home, but the long-term goal is to be and stay the #3 conference. That means the Big XII needs to distribute more than the ACC and PAC to both keep members and potentially poach from the other two conferences.

First thing, there's no schools worth adding to the east that are available before ~2030 or so. I'm not counting on anyone getting around the ACC GOR, buying themselves out of the GOR before then, or the conference voting to dissolve. In short, the GOR seems pretty legally solid. The buyout is too expensive for quite a few more years. I'm skeptical that 8 ACC schools could find a better landing spot. The schools getting left behind would have no incentive to negotiate them terms. ESPN would be a massive loser if they lost their base for the #3 conference, inventory from ACC games, and Notre Dame was forced into the Big 10 (which is run by FOX).

The Big XII needs to stay competitive with or ahead of the ACC in per team allocations. I'll make a couple of assumptions:

1. The total media value of the Big PAC is the Big XII's projected revenue + the PAC's projected revenue
2. The merger happens in 2024 when USC and UCLA go to the Big 10.
3. Revenue is split equally among schools.

Here's the numbers by year for the PAC, Big XII, merged PAC/Big XII with 24 teams in 2024 and 22 teams thereafter and the ACC for comparison.

Year	PAC	Big	Big PAC	ACC
2024	$20.1M	$43.1M	$33.5M	$37.9M
2025	$23.4M	$44.3M	$34.8M	$39.6M
2026	$31.6M	$52.6M	$43.5M	$54.3M
2027	$32.6M	$54.2M	$44.3M	$55.6M
2028	$33.5M	$55.8M	$45.6M	$59.0M
2029	$34.5M	$57.5M	$47.1M	$61.5M

The Big XII/PAC is instantly behind the ACC, an that gap grows from $4.4M in 2024 to $14.4M in 2029. That gap would give the ACC leverage to potentially poach some Big PAC teams - Oregon, Washington, Okie St, etc. There's no way the Big PAC could claim to be the #3 conference and it's schools earn that much less than the other contender.

The smarter play for the Big XII would be to take as many schools as possible from the PAC now while keeping the per school distribution about the same. I don't have the per school value in the PAC, but I'd think OR, WA, Utah, and maybe the AZ schools all fit that bill. This would give the Big XII the advantage on the ACC, which will likely see it's per school drop when/if the SEC and Big 10 eventually raid it's membership.

 

[Gilbyone]

As others have said, the 4 team short term play is probably the most probable. Colorado is sentimental. Utah has the second highest FB viewership of the remaining PAC10 at about 1M. The two Arizona combine with one having 740,000 FB viewers and the other a basketball powerhouse.

The best remaining fish in the barrel are Oregon, the highest viewership of the remaining 10 and 13th highest in college FB, and Washington the third best, but will they go without their in-state pairs, and they are another time zone west. And, no one is talking about Stanford with the fourth best viewership of the remaining 10.

Go Clones
Go Chiefs