UT/OU can absolutely be held to stay until 2024. They can leave, but the Big 12 will retain those media rights come hell or high water. The Big 12 has zero incentive to let them go.
Those comments from the PAC 12 commissioner are about limiting PAC 12 after dark. PAC 12 could’ve added 4 teams this past summer and had the Big 12 potentially disband. Why poach the Big 12 now after it’s significantly strengthened itself?
And the Big 10 is only adding subscriptions. Good luck with that.
Sure OU/UT can be held to stay but if the price is right as part of a settlement agreement, they will be released from the GOR in the form of straight up cash or ESPN/Fox/SEC funding the placement of the Remaining 8 in the B10, ACC and/or the P12. As mentioned before, there is no way OU and UT stay through GOR expiration, they will settle in advance and ESPN will help pay in some fashion.
Those comments from the P12 Commish strongly suggested moving games from After Dark to the 11 AM CT window. They cannot accomplish that movement with solely non con games with the B10 and ACC via the "Alliance" and enhance their own media package. Bowlsby has publicly stated that and I agree. In order to get weekly 11 AM CT games in their own package, they have to expand with schools in the Central Time zone.
And it would have been financially inept on the B12's part to dissolve before a GOR and Exit Fee Settlement was reached with OU/UT/SEC/ESPN. OU and UT were hoping for dissolution to skirt the Settlement but obviously that didn't happen. Just because B12 dissolution hasn't already occurred doesn't mean it still can't happen. There is nothing binding on the R8's end to that would still preclude dissolution.
The B10 doesn't have to expand with ISU/KU but their are multiple benefits in do so (e.g. solving their FB scheduling issues by going to 4 pods). And any potential payout decreases for existing schools are mitigated by ESPN/Fox essentially moving payouts for ISU/KU from their existing B12 deals to the B10, by stimulation of BTN streaming subs and by a new entrant such as Amazon desiring additional inventory from ISU/KU.