Big 12 Expansion (new thread)

[isucy86]

Just think of divisions as the new conference. Expanded playoffs will allow it. Conference semifinals are added. With this level of realignment it basically a P2 top tier. Going to 11 conference games isn't an issue imo, it brings back value to inter-conference post-season matchups. 5 games against your division every year, rotate through the other 3 divisions.

OU, UT, A&M, Arkansas, MU, KU
LSU, Ole Miss, MSU, Bama, Auburn, Vandy
UGa, UF, Tennessee, VT, USC, Kentucky
Clemson, FSU, UNC, Duke, UVa NC St

That and time changes people's perceptions. As a 24-30 team College Football League, why is it important teams play each other every 4-5 years? Do we care that NFL teams don't play each other frequently? Nope, just the division rivals.

Plus, not playing teams frequently works out better when there is an 8-12 team playoff. Fewer regular season rematches.

 

[WhoISthis]

That and time changes people's perceptions. As a 24-30 team College Football League, why is it important teams play each other every 4-5 years? Do we care that NFL teams don't play each other frequently? Nope, just the division rivals.

Plus, not playing teams frequently works out better when there is an 8-12 team playoff. Fewer regular season rematches.

Yes, it’s actually better for the conference.

The current NCAA college football isn’t really the end game. Rotating through 18 teams once every 3 years a good trade off for keeping way more of the playoff and postseason basketball revenue.

On a macro level, a P2 of 48 teams likely makes the most money for those 48. Eventually it could be 32-40, but if that occurs too quickly it could jeopardize the sport i

 

[isucy86]

Yes, it’s actually better for the conference.

The current NCAA college football isn’t really the end game. Rotating through 18 teams once every 3 years a good trade off for keeping way more of the playoff and postseason basketball revenue.

On a macro level, a P2 of 48 teams likely makes the most money for those 48. Eventually it could be 32-40, but if that occurs too quickly it could jeopardize the sport i

For the big picture of College Football a 48ish team D1 makes sense. Provides nationwide exposure and fan appeal.

But what I described as a SEC centered College Football League could also be accomplished by the Big10. We will see if the Alliance created last summer by Big10, Pac12 and ACC has any meat or it was just a PR stunt. The Big10 could add Pac12 elite schools, gobble up a few Big12 schools with value and take a wait & see approach with the ACC.

 

[WhoISthis]

For the big picture of College Football a 48ish team D1 makes sense. Provides nationwide exposure and fan appeal.

But what I described as a SEC centered College Football League could also be accomplished by the Big10. We will see if the Alliance created last summer by Big10, Pac12 and ACC has any meat or it was just a PR stunt. The Big10 could add Pac12 elite schools, gobble up a few Big12 schools with value and take a wait & see approach with the ACC.

You basically already did describe it - as one side separating obviously means the other did as well- with the only difference being all the ACC is included. It’s the B-side of your previous post.

It would not do as well per school, adding the entire ACC to the BIG-Pac12, and would have trouble packaging itself as the top level. The sec would mop up on a per school revenue basis and in recruiting. They’d be viewed as top league. Particularly with pay to play. It would more likely end up being an existential threat.

It would also be good theatre, this cold war between factions, and when they caved and had the two P2s play each other, a ratings boon.

I do wonder which side would invite Big 12 and G5 on cheap deals to participate. The Alliance could but then it really makes less per school than the SEC. But their only chance is to make the sec so regional that not enough people care. Like hockey

 

[SEIOWA CLONE]

Just think of divisions as the new conference. Expanded playoffs will allow it. Conference semifinals are added. With this level of realignment it basically a P2 top tier. Going to 11 conference games isn't an issue imo, it brings back value to inter-conference post-season matchups. 5 games against your division every year, rotate through the other 3 divisions.

OU, UT, A&M, Arkansas, MU, KU
LSU, Ole Miss, MSU, Bama, Auburn, Vandy
UGa, UF, Tennessee, VT, USC, Kentucky
Clemson, FSU, UNC, Duke, UVa NC St

If what you are saying is true, that the SEC is out to form their own super league, opposite the Big 10, then there is no way in hell that KU, Vandy, and schools like that are going to get an invite, whether they are currently in the SEC or not.
You think this is all about money, but then they are going to turn around and share that same money with the sisters of the poor? Not hardly.

If they go to a 40-team league super conference, then only the best of the best will be invited, the Ohio States, Michigan and Penn. States of the world are not going to be stay in the Big 10 making 75 million, when Alabama and Georgia are rolling in 150 to 200 million a year.

If this goes down, then it really doesn't matter for schools like ISU, because we will be on the outside looking in, along with quite a few other schools.

I guess we will have to wait and see.

 

[scyclonekid]

It’s gonna be a mess

 

[WhoISthis]

If what you are saying is true, that the SEC is out to form their own super league, opposite the Big 10, then there is no way in hell that KU, Vandy, and schools like that are going to get an invite, whether they are currently in the SEC or not.
You think this is all about money, but then they are going to turn around and share that same money with the sisters of the poor? Not hardly.

If they go to a 40-team league super conference, then only the best of the best will be invited, the Ohio States, Michigan and Penn. States of the world are not going to be stay in the Big 10 making 75 million, when Alabama and Georgia are rolling in 150 to 200 million a year.

If this goes down, then it really doesn't matter for schools like ISU, because we will be on the outside looking in, along with quite a few other schools.

I guess we will have to wait and see.

Nah, it can’t be completely exclusionary from the beginning, and those already in the P2 are in the 48.

Do I think there would be future movement or some of the 48 dropping out or getting kicked out? I’d imagine so, that’s why I said eventual profit maximization may be 32-40 schools, but after a certain point just being in the SEC or BIG will be so valuable it won’t be as big of issue. Even the Jaguars are valuable in the NFL for example.

There will never be completely equitable valuations across any conference or entity, at least not enough to capture the scale needed.

Vandy could opt out, but I doubt it. They’ll finally start investing in their program. Who outside the 48 is the sec kicking them out for? Maybe Baylor if they continue to clean up, maybe another FL school. But it’s not unequivocal and they easily could just give them a long leash.

KU pays its own way given this much disruption likely comes with redoing the tournament.

Before we get to a P2, we’ll likely have a good 10 years at P3 imo, although not in revenue.

 

[cykadelic2]

For the big picture of College Football a 48ish team D1 makes sense. Provides nationwide exposure and fan appeal.

But what I described as a SEC centered College Football League could also be accomplished by the Big10. We will see if the Alliance created last summer by Big10, Pac12 and ACC has any meat or it was just a PR stunt. The Big10 could add Pac12 elite schools, gobble up a few Big12 schools with value and take a wait & see approach with the ACC.

Bowlsby has suggested there will be an “Alliance of 48” which would be 14 (B10) * 14 (ACC) + 12 (P12)) + the R8. This would also suggest assimilation of the R8 into those 3 conferences as part of the B12’s settlement with OU/UT/ESPN/SEC/Fox. The ACC is hands off for poaching through 2036 but can expand with ESPN signoff of adding two B12 schools.

 

[WhoISthis]

Bowlsby has suggested there will be an “Alliance of 48” which would be 14 (B10) * 14 (ACC) + 12 (P12)) + the R8. This would also suggest assimilation of the R8 into those 3 conferences as part of the B12’s settlement with OU/UT/ESPN/SEC/Fox. The ACC is hands off for poaching through 2036 but can expand with ESPN signoff of adding two B12 schools.

Bowlsby has suggested a lot of things, but I assure you he did not suggest assimilation of his conference and job into other conferences.

 

[BCClone]

Bowlsby has suggested a lot of things, but I assure you he did not suggest assimilation of his conference and job into other conferences.

He’s ready to retire. Maybe he thinks he will get a bonus if the R8 land okay.

 

[WhoISthis]

He’s ready to retire. Maybe he thinks he will get a bonus if the R8 land okay.

He may have been ready to retire, and that's why he didn't see OUT coming like he should have, but he's been doing good work keeping the Big 12 alive. Which if you're the R8 hoping to get out for free, is not good.

 

[cykadelic2]

Bowlsby has suggested a lot of things, but I assure you he did not suggest assimilation of his conference and job into other conferences.

He will retire once the settlement agreement is reached and his primary goal until then is taking care of the R8, not BYU, UH, UCF and UC. If it takes dissolution of the B12, he will facilitate that.

 

[WhoISthis]

He will retire once the settlement agreement is reached and his primary goal until then is taking care of the R8, not BYU, UH, UCF and UC. If it takes dissolution of the B12, he will facilitate that.

The R8 will be taken care of, positioned to become a P3, not likely to involve going to the Alliance.

You're pinning your hopes on the Alliance working with Bob to find landing spots for all R8, agree to wait to collect exit money first, then dissolve. Not only would such a cohered act not pass discovery, they would need ESPN to be in on it given they are the sole provider to ACC and would need to provide estimates of valuation on the others. That is fantasy, as even had they been able to execute that covertly thus far, as soon as it occurs, OUT, and maybe even the four new Big 12 members, are taking the Big 12 to court

So now we're down to that occurring at enough of R8 independently . In that case, each party has an incentive to push dissolution, in other words, not wait to announce. ESPN has that incentive too.

Besides all that, there are the numbers. Gone are the days in which networks will allow you to sign a new deal then expand at that rate. The new BIG deal will make it very hard to justify adding R8, maybe KU if plans are concrete on leaving NCAA in next decade.

And if you're not adding value to P2, you're not really helping the Pac12 or ACC enough to justify being a satellite pod. Now, WVU is a point of weakness, as they would jump to the ACC for a modest increase or parity, but it would have been prudent for them to do so as soon as ACC informally said yes. And they could only say yes after working with ESPN. The cease and desist did likely stop some of the information reaching SEC/OUT, but they are still able to protect their bottom line. The ACC could not justify it, in part because ESPN has no interest, and now WVU's play (and ESPN) is to make the ACC come to them.

 

[dafarmer]

You would think Iowa would want ISU in the league so they would only play Ohio State and Michigan once every 10 years. ISU would be scheduled to play them every year.

 

[WhoISthis]

You would think Iowa would want ISU in the league so they would only play Ohio State and Michigan once every 10 years. ISU would bes cheduled to play them every year.

Ha, yes.

Imagine the BIG going to 24 with a pod/division of Utah, CU, Arizona, Nebraska, Iowa, and Minnesota.

 

[isucy86]

He will retire once the settlement agreement is reached and his primary goal until then is taking care of the R8, not BYU, UH, UCF and UC. If it takes dissolution of the B12, he will facilitate that.

Like it or not, Bowlsby & Big 12 are on the hook for BYU, UH, UCG and UC. They are now part of the Big12, just won't join until July 1 of 2023 or 2024.

If Bowlsby is part of an existing plan to place the R8 and toss aside the 4 new programs, I can see those 4 programs suing the Big12 Conference. IMO it would also be unethical and I would hope Bowlsby is a better man.

 

[cykadelic2]

Bowlsby has suggested a lot of things, but I assure you he did not suggest assimilation of his conference and job into other conferences.

Based on his comment to D Magazine, that is exactly what he suggested.

 

[cykadelic2]

You're pinning your hopes on the Alliance working with Bob to find landing spots for all R8, agree to wait to collect exit money first, then dissolve. Not only would such a cohered act not pass discovery, they would need ESPN to be in on it given they are the sole provider to ACC and would need to provide estimates of valuation on the others. That is fantasy, as even had they been able to execute that covertly thus far, as soon as it occurs, OUT, and maybe even the four new Big 12 members, are taking the Big 12 to court

Who would be legally impaired from a settlement agreement where discovery would be necessitated by an entity outside of that settlement agreement?

Certainly not BYU, UCF, UH and UC. They are no apparent legal obligations on the B12's part to continue with those 4 schools beyond B12 GOR expiration.

 

[cykadelic2]

Like it or not, Bowlsby & Big 12 are on the hook for BYU, UH, UCG and UC. They are now part of the Big12, just won't join until July 1 of 2023 or 2024.

If Bowlsby is part of an existing plan to place the R8 and toss aside the 4 new programs, I can see those 4 programs suing the Big12 Conference. IMO it would also be unethical and I would hope Bowlsby is a better man.

There are no apparent legal obligations on the part of the B12 and R8 to continue as a conference with those 4 schools beyond GOR expiration. If the R8 end up with landing spots in the P12, ACC and/or B10 as part of a settlement agreement with OU/UT/SEC/ESPN/Fox, they will all go. And those 4 newbies know full well that possibility existed.

 

[BCClone]

Like it or not, Bowlsby & Big 12 are on the hook for BYU, UH, UCG and UC. They are now part of the Big12, just won't join until July 1 of 2023 or 2024.

If Bowlsby is part of an existing plan to place the R8 and toss aside the 4 new programs, I can see those 4 programs suing the Big12 Conference. IMO it would also be unethical and I would hope Bowlsby is a better man.

At this point the R8 can make whatever changes they want. If
They see this coming, they can write down the penalties for the GOR or the exiting. Tweak the bylaws, whatever they want.