Big 12 Spring Meetings Summary

[SEIOWA CLONE]

Where did you see projections of $100-$110mill per year per school? I guess I could've missed it but I don't remember seeing/reading any projections that high with the upcoming media deal.

That was the number the talking heads were throwing out to everyone that would listen.

 

[Gonzo]

That was the number the talking heads were throwing out to everyone that would listen.

What talking heads? I've searched and can't find any serious, sourced reports, quotes, charts, graphs or anything that indicated projections of $100mill-$110mill per year per school once this new deal is signed.

 

[cykadelic2]

What talking heads? I've searched and can't find any serious, sourced reports, quotes, charts, graphs or anything that indicated projections of $100mill-$110mill per year per school once this new deal is signed.

The Athletic and the Navigate consulting firm predicted +$100M/yr payouts for the SEC and B10 by 2026 but those estimates included CFP payouts from a 12 team playoff which is obviously now in limbo.

 

[Gonzo]

The Athletic and the Navigate consulting firm predicted +$100M/yr payouts for the SEC and B10 by 2026 but those estimates included CFP payouts from a 12 team playoff which is obviously now in limbo.

I saw the $100mill per year for the SEC projection but that was by the end of the decade. Here's the Navigate projection...

Navigate projects SEC and Big Ten per-school payouts will be $40-50 million clear of rest of Power Five by 2026

The gap between the Big Ten and SEC and the rest of the Power Five is set to widen even with new deals, per research firm Navigate.

awfulannouncing.com

Has the B1G at $94.5 mill by 2029.

 

[FriendlySpartan]

I saw the $100mill per year for the SEC projection but that was by the end of the decade. Here's the Navigate projection...

Navigate projects SEC and Big Ten per-school payouts will be $40-50 million clear of rest of Power Five by 2026

The gap between the Big Ten and SEC and the rest of the Power Five is set to widen even with new deals, per research firm Navigate.

awfulannouncing.com

Has the B1G at $94.5 mill by 2029.

Yeah I’ve always been told 80-90mil. Amazon is making a big push but is getting some resistance in terms of accessibility. With the talks of putting more games behind BTN+ (an idea I hate) the idea of having fans also have to pay for prime video is causing some issues. The demand for the rights is also higher then leadership expected which is why negotiations are taking so long.

 

[isucy86]

Yeah I’ve always been told 80-90mil. Amazon is making a big push but is getting some resistance in terms of accessibility. With the talks of putting more games behind BTN+ (an idea I hate) the idea of having fans also have to pay for prime video is causing some issues. The demand for the rights is also higher then leadership expected which is why negotiations are taking so long.

Will be curious the trade-offs for the big time fees the conferences are looking for.

I saw where the SEC was still evaluating an 8 game conference schedule during their meetings last week. I would think the networks would want no part of 8 game conference schedules. If I'm the networks I would rather have a Mizzou vs. Mississippi State game than Mizzou vs. Missouri State and Mississippi State vs. Stamford from a ratings standpoint. Plus having to televise only one contest reduces game day production costs by 50%.

It also seems like the conferences are going to have to put up with subscription based streaming platforms. First I think entities like Disney feel they are negotiating from a position of strength and could get $25/month or more for Disney+ with ESPN channels. Second, I think the days of the Big10 getting a flat fee for BTN from cable/streaming carriage fees is going to end.

 

[Gilbyone]

I think that it will be either a Super 16 conference (AZ, AZSt, Utah, & Colo) or go Mega 24 by merging them all in and adding 2 more on the east coast for 24, and make four 6 team regions. Flood the traditional broadcast partners and add 4-5 streaming partners (Amazon Prime, Peacock, Paramount+, ESPN+, Fubo, Hulu, etc.). This would guarantee everyone coast to coast exposure (which the PAC has suffered the lack of).

As they say "Go Big, or Go Home!"

Go Clones
Go Chiefs

 

[Gilbyone]

I would add that with a Mega Conference you would play no non-conference games and keep all of the revenue in-house. Anyway, the networks are not interested in broadcasting games against NW Nobody State, Wyoming Drover University, or the Minnesota Fly-Fishing Academy. So you build up your broadcast income by giving them the best games possible. (If Iowa still wants to play Iowa State, maybe we might consider their membership application into the new "Midwest Coastal 24 League".)

 

[t-noah]

I don't think the Big12 will want to stop at 14 schools. If USC, UCLA, Washington, Oregon, etc. decide to move on from the Pac12 and find a new home in the Big10 and/or SEC- then we could be headed toward 2 or 3 super conferences. If the Big12 is going to be one of those conferences, it would seem like more schools equates to more money. With linear networks, there is a limit to how much inventory a network wants to have rights to. But with streaming platforms, the limit isn't channel capacity, but maximizing revenue for the platform while maximizing revenue on a per/school basis.

IMO a bigger Big12 means more money for all Big12 members. I could see the following comprising a thriving Big12:

West: BYU, Utah, AZ, ASU, UNLV & SDSU (6 teams)
Mid America: ISU, KSU, KU, OSU, CU & TCU
South East: TT, Baylor, Houston, UCF, Cincy, WVU

That would position the Big12 should the ACC gets poached by the SEC/Big10 in the 2030's. Schools like Louisville, Pitt, Va Tech and Syracuse would seem like solid fits if the Big12 is the 3rd power conference.

I already have an Owl on my deck that supposed to keep birds away but it’s completely ineffective and one of them is even had the balls to sh*t

Surly dumbed this. Must of been a pretty solid post. Thanks Surly!

According to you! LOL. Just kidding. It was pretty good actually.

I had hoped for that too, before we added the new schools. Now I think that ship has sailed. I dont think we are going to dump the 4 new schools plus a couple after we just made a deal for them.

I could see us adding Pac schools especially if they start looking for greener pastures, and/or the B1G poaches a few. But I think we are stuck with the few we added.

The only other way that I could see this is if a group of Big 12 schools leave the Big 12, and join up with a group of Pac 12 schools. Which could be a possibility. But Right now the Big 12 is in a stronger position to add, than the Pac 12.

I think we are pushing toward the elimination of at least 1 Power conference if not 2 in the near future, before moving toward 2 power conferences.

-I could see this upcoming shift being the B1G and Big 12 absorb the Pac 12, bringing us to a P4.
-The next round the SEC, B1G, and Big 12 absorb the ACC, down to a P3.
-Finally, they decide how many actually works, and how they want it layed out and the B1G and SEC pick apart the Big 12 to get to 2 super conferences with control of all major teams. Thus dividing up divisions, pods or whatever they want. My feeling is they will each have 24-32 teams each at that point.

Probably a 10+ year process overall. It really just depends how unhappy the Pac 12 teams are with their situation right now, to spark the chaos again.

I've said it 100 times on this site..

But the Big 12 should do 4 pods of 3 teams and start a 2-round playoff for the conference title. Those would be valuable inventory and differentiate the conference from the usually bad games on in the final week of the regular season.

Mich-OSU has the Noon slot on Fox.
Iron Bowl has the afternoon slot on CBS. That could change with ESPN/ABC getting the SEC rights.

Big 12 could start a "playoff" in week 13 at 3 and 7. I think those games would be HEAVILY watched versus matchups like the Egg Bowl and Wiscy-Minny

ISU-KU-KSU
BYU-BU-TCU
Tech-OSU-UH
WVU-Cincy-UCF

Cincy versus OSU in the first game
ISU at BYU/BU in the nightcap

*Based on 2021 standings

I didn't know you guys were reading the tea leaves over a month ago! What's the word / your opinion, now? For Big 12 realignment or additions.

 

[2speedy1]

According to you! LOL. Just kidding. It was pretty good actually.



I didn't know you guys were reading the tea leaves over a month ago! What's the word / your opinion, now? For Big 12 realignment or additions.

Yeah this is what I had said back then, was going to happen, several people told me I was crazy. To be fair I did think it would be at least 4 that went to the B1G, but would include USCLA.

With several of the others jumping to the Big 12, then the SEC trying to raid the ACC, whenever they could get around the GoR.

Personally, I am thinking we still end up with 4-6 teams from the PAC in the Big 12. Utah has become a bit of a strange one to read. It is obvious what Oregon and Washington want but I dont think that is an option for them, which means they may land in the Big 12. and the Arizonas and Colorado I think already have a foot in the door. Cal and Stanford I think have too many issues to get past to join, on both sides. And I still think Stanford could be that 1 school that is considered a partner for ND.

There is going to be a lot of moving parts in this, or there will be nothing that happens, I lean towards a lot of moving.