Big XII to add schools within days?

[AuH2O]

CW Patreon alluded to the idea that Amazon or some other new player might want a larger volume of inventory in order to make their venture worthwhile. We might be doing this now with the idea we can play at 14 for a season or two and then maintain 14 after OU/Texas depart with Boise State and Memphis coming in (or whoever).

Big 12 or PAC 12 better be careful when looking at Amazon (or CBS for that matter). Assuming ESPN and Fox remain the two players in the other conferences it would not only remove the incentive by those media partners to include those leagues in an expanded playoff division/league. In fact it provides incentive for the other leagues and Fox and ESPN to actively keep them out.

 

[Clark]

I know some aren't pleased with the rumored 4 schools to be extended invites but I am intrigued that most if not all will eventually elevate their programs by being part of a P5 conference much like TCU and WVU were able to do. Those 2 schools already had quality athletic programs and have been competitive in the Big 12 and on a national stage with the recruiting advantage being in a P5 conference adds. All 4 of the schools we may add to the Big 12 while collectively do not bring to the table what Texas and OU did financially or historically from a name standpoint but all 4 schools have some recent success in the major sports. Cincy is a top 10 FB team right now, UCF and BYU are getting some top 25 votes and have had some good teams recently, and UCF has been to a bowl game the past 5 seasons and 12 since the 2005 season. They may not be sexy adds from a name recognition and tradition standpoint but for being non-power 5 schools they have had some success already and potentially could grow their programs more with the added boost of being a member of a P5 conference.

I'd still take a Big 10 invite in a heartbeat but expanding the Big 12 instead of letting it crumble and be uncertain where ISU would land I like the expansion option right now and I think the schools in the mix are ones that already have had some success that have the potential to grow it more and keep the Big 12 in the mix as a good P5 conference. I look back at how TCU finished in the AP top 10 in 2014, 2015, and 2017 as an example how a team joining a P5 that had already had some previous success either sustained or elevated it.

The only one I don't really see potential upside for is Houston. Any gains that they might make are most likely to come at the expense of Baylor and/or TCU who are already Big 12 members, so you're cannibalizing yourself a bit.

 

[WhoISthis]

The only one I don't really see potential upside for is Houston. Any gains that they might make are most likely to come at the expense of Baylor and/or TCU who are already Big 12 members, so you're cannibalizing yourself a bit.

I thought so too.

But I talked to a G5 person (not invited, but vetted). Apparently the thought by most of the Big 12 (I think TT initially disagreed), is that Texas is already SEC. The Big 12 is embracing the isolated little fiefdom model. Gundy's recent comments on how they already didn't really recruit Houston backs this up. Basically, Houston is the SEC country school being added.

I still think there is still a competing for the same attention and resources, and one of the 8 in theory could have grown to become a power enough to be prominent in Houston. But lets be real, if the 8 weren't able to become that with Texas and A&M in the conference, Houston as Big 12 country, then U of Houston has the best chance of becoming that entity as "the other conference".


I think if there were another obvious choice, they would have waited on Houston. If 11 weren't so awkward, too.

 

[WhoISthis]

Agree, I have thought this for a while about the PAC12 and value of teams. It seems obvious ISU, OSU, TT would bring real value, so the fact they said "not now" suggests there is something planned for down the road.
Maybe the reason Big12 is adding 4 now is so 4 can go join the PAC in a few years, and that provides some succor for the left behind, as they would still be the best of the non P4 conferences. Still think ISU, OSU, KU, and probably TT make a lot of sense for the Pac16.

I don't see the best of the Big 12 adding enough value to the Pac 12 to appease. The Big 12 should wait for the Pac 12 inventory to come to them.

If the Pac 12 needs to add ISU, KU, OSU, TT, I think they would push the dissolve the conference after reaching an agreement to move 9 Pac 12 teams to the BIG plus KU, with Nebraska and Iowa moving to that side. Obviously that would suck for ISU. One of the Arizona schools or Utah is left out in that scenario and added to the Big 12 to replace KU. I think it would mean 6-8 top ACC brands join the SEC, and the next 6-8 to the Big 12 as the best of the rest P3.

 

[MartyFine]

 

[AuH2O]

I don't see the best of the Big 12 adding enough value to the Pac 12 to appease. The Big 12 should wait for the Pac 12 inventory to come to them.

If the Pac 12 needs to add ISU, KU, OSU, TT, I think they would push the dissolve the conference after reaching an agreement to move 9 Pac 12 teams to the BIG plus KU, with Nebraska and Iowa moving to that side. Obviously that would suck for ISU. One of the Arizona schools or Utah is left out in that scenario and added to the Big 12 to replace KU. I think it would mean 6-8 top ACC brands join the SEC, and the next 6-8 to the Big 12 as the best of the rest P3.

I don't see how this makes any sense at all. If ISU and Oklahoma St. don't bring relative value to the PAC, there is no way in hell there are 9 (or even 5 for that matter) PAC teams that bring remotely enough relative value to the Big 10. Not even close. ISU and Okie St. would be the 3rd and 4th most watched PAC teams. USC and Oregon would be behind OSU, Michigan, PSU and Wisconsin out of the gates. Washington, UCLA and Utah would be toward the bottom of the league. Every other PAC team would be an absolute TV ratings bottom feeder in the Big 10.

 

[SCNCY]

I would assume this would be for all sports other than football. Football could move over as soon as they reschedule their future games.

But overall, that's a small amount of money.

 

[Urbandale2013]

If we are adding 6 I really would hope they look at San Diego state instead of Boise or Memphis. Man I just don’t see what boise or Memphis bring at all.

sdsu is a big school, gets you into California, they could def compete, great road trip….Boise….ugh

Not excited about Boise but Memphis would be a great add if you are doing 6. They have Fed Ex money and I think would transition well.

SDSU has the same California problem. People just don’t care that much out there. Plus you have to go to the 4th time zone.

 

[Gonzo]

I don't see the best of the Big 12 adding enough value to the Pac 12 to appease. The Big 12 should wait for the Pac 12 inventory to come to them.

If the Pac 12 needs to add ISU, KU, OSU, TT, I think they would push the dissolve the conference after reaching an agreement to move 9 Pac 12 teams to the BIG plus KU, with Nebraska and Iowa moving to that side. Obviously that would suck for ISU. One of the Arizona schools or Utah is left out in that scenario and added to the Big 12 to replace KU. I think it would mean 6-8 top ACC brands join the SEC, and the next 6-8 to the Big 12 as the best of the rest P3.

Nine PAC teams to the B1G?

 

[AuH2O]

Nine PAC teams to the B1G?

You saying the networks aren't jacked for that Illinois-Cal matchup? Better call UCLA to see where they source their giant tarps to cover up empty seats. Throw KU in that mix and you've got some real barn burners. On one hand it would be cool to have the same league have 112,000 for OSU-Michigan and also have KU-Stanford draw 8,000.

Hardest hit will be Northwestern. Every home game outside of driving distance means a half-empty stadium.

 

[Cloneon]

Big 12 or PAC 12 better be careful when looking at Amazon (or CBS for that matter). Assuming ESPN and Fox remain the two players in the other conferences it would not only remove the incentive by those media partners to include those leagues in an expanded playoff division/league. In fact it provides incentive for the other leagues and Fox and ESPN to actively keep them out.

That would, imo, play right in to the hands of an antitrust. Furthermore, if that happens I can see state legislatures getting very involved in this whole thing.

 

[CascadeClone]

I don't see the best of the Big 12 adding enough value to the Pac 12 to appease. The Big 12 should wait for the Pac 12 inventory to come to them.

If the Pac 12 needs to add ISU, KU, OSU, TT, I think they would push the dissolve the conference after reaching an agreement to move 9 Pac 12 teams to the BIG plus KU, with Nebraska and Iowa moving to that side. Obviously that would suck for ISU. One of the Arizona schools or Utah is left out in that scenario and added to the Big 12 to replace KU. I think it would mean 6-8 top ACC brands join the SEC, and the next 6-8 to the Big 12 as the best of the rest P3.

I just don't think the B1G and PAC12 will do anything that radical. They are the "old money" traditionalists in this deal. They are not the SEC "new money" Real Housewives of Tuscaloosa. So I would be shocked if they were to merge in that way.

Could they ally deeper in some way, esp wrt football? Absolutely. Could they try to exclude the SEC from stuff, or work against their efforts to dominate the CFP? Sure. If the SEC created a super league, might the B1G and PAC lead the "AFL" league and have the Rose Bowl be the champ game? Yeah.

But a merger just doesn't seem in the feasible solution space imho.

 

[WhoISthis]

Nine PAC teams to the B1G?

Nine plus KU!

More works better than less, as it allows most of the Pac 12 games to be on the west coast, and most of the BIG teams to play in the BIG. Maybe 8. 6 premium brands plus CU, Utah (and KU) as a bridge. Maybe 9, with those plus ASU or Zona (or both minus Utah). Don't worry, I think scheduling would be pod based, so Iowa moving to the PAC half is rough, but not prohibitive (CU, KU, NU, Utah, AZ, IA). If Iowa doesn't like it, i know a school in Iowa that would kill to beat up on NU.

Think of it as the Alliance, but with revenue sharing.

I don’t think 6 is enough to keep the Pac12-BIG rosemance alive, but that is probably the profit maximizing number and that’s better for Iowa St.

 

[Gonzo]

Nine plus KU!

More works better than less, as it allows most of the Pac 12 games to be on the west coast, and most of the BIG teams to play in the BIG. Maybe 8. 6 premium brands plus CU, Utah (and KU) as a bridge. Maybe 9, with those plus ASU or Zona (or both minus Utah). Don't worry, I think scheduling would be pod based, so Iowa moving to the PAC half is rough, but not prohibitive (CU, KU, NU, Utah, AZ, IA). If Iowa doesn't like it, i know a school in Iowa that would kill to beat up on NU.

Think of it as the Alliance, but with revenue sharing.

I don’t think 6 is enough to keep the Pac12-BIG rosemance alive, but that is probably the profit maximizing number and that’s better for Iowa St.

And you see this happening in a way where the current B1G programs don't take a massive cut in their media payouts by splitting the pie 24 ways instead of 14?

 

[WhoISthis]

I just don't think the B1G and PAC12 will do anything that radical. They are the "old money" traditionalists in this deal. They are not the SEC "new money" Real Housewives of Tuscaloosa. So I would be shocked if they were to merge in that way.

Could they ally deeper in some way, esp wrt football? Absolutely. Could they try to exclude the SEC from stuff, or work against their efforts to dominate the CFP? Sure. If the SEC created a super league, might the B1G and PAC lead the "AFL" league and have the Rose Bowl be the champ game? Yeah.

But a merger just doesn't seem in the feasible solution space imho.

Don't think of it as a merger, think of it as an Alliance with full revenue sharing for the top8 or 9 Pac 12 brands

And you're right- the fission between the BIG world (PAC12 division included) and SEC world (likely some ACC programs) would be amazing post-season drama. Maybe that is why I think it makes so much sense haha. The ratings would be insane for a 12 team playoff of 6 BIG and 6 SEC, although it would fizzle once the SEC won 75%.

 

[Win5002]

Not excited about Boise but Memphis would be a great add if you are doing 6. They have Fed Ex money and I think would transition well.

SDSU has the same California problem. People just don’t care that much out there. Plus you have to go to the 4th time zone.

Pollard recently said Pete Thamel was getting info from someone who promised confidentiality because Thamel was correct about most things. One of the things Thamel mentioned was an enlarged conference(maybe 16) and flexibility of scheduling with weeknight and also late night games. I wouldn't have thought the league would go to 16 but that might be a lot of why they will get more in the new contract than almost everyone thought. BSU & SDSU if going to 16 gives two more venues for late night starts.

Also, if the B12 is scheduling with the SEC at 16. Cities with large recruiting bases are attractive spots for the SEC schools to want to play(even if they already have tons of recruiting areas).

 

[Win5002]

You saying the networks aren't jacked for that Illinois-Cal matchup? Better call UCLA to see where they source their giant tarps to cover up empty seats. Throw KU in that mix and you've got some real barn burners. On one hand it would be cool to have the same league have 112,000 for OSU-Michigan and also have KU-Stanford draw 8,000.

Hardest hit will be Northwestern. Every home game outside of driving distance means a half-empty stadium.

There will be a few games that are still bad, but its better by and large than P5 vs Sunbelt, Conference USA, etc.

 

[NetflixAndClone]

Pollard recently said Pete Thamel was getting info from someone who promised confidentiality because Thamel was correct about most things. One of the things Thamel mentioned was an enlarged conference(maybe 16) and flexibility of scheduling with weeknight and also late night games. I wouldn't have thought the league would go to 16 but that might be a lot of why they will get more in the new contract than almost everyone thought. BSU & SDSU if going to 16 gives two more venues for late night starts.

Also, if the B12 is scheduling with the SEC at 16. Cities with large recruiting bases are attractive spots for the SEC schools to want to play(even if they already have tons of recruiting areas).

a 4 time zone conference seems brutal for weekday game non revenue sports.

 

[WhoISthis]

And you see this happening in a way where the current B1G programs don't take a massive cut in their media payouts by splitting the pie 24 ways instead of 14?

Yes, if taking the top brands of the Pac 12. Maybe 22 and losing a Utah or AZ works better.

You know that cliché of the sum of parts being greater? Getting into those markets is huge for the BIG carriage fees (it is still a mostly linear model). Like adding a bunch of Rutgers, that actually have value brands though. And the Pac 12 brands value increase as now midwest/BIG viewership goes up, and they Pac 12 teams get some better time slots. This would be executed via pod scheduling, but Pac 12/BIG division standings. This also allows the BIG to keep UM-OSU-PSU from cannibalizing each other.

And I think the BIG could monetize their conference title game being the Rose Bowl.

Ideally it doesn't need to happen, but the SEC will eventually go after the PAC 12 teams that want to make $40 million more. If it isn't USC, it will be someone that wants to pass USC. And the Pac 12 cannot survive that. I think the BIG would rather make a little less and have the Pac12 preserved "as a division" then have programs continue to get poached by the SEC. I don't think they would make that much less, but perhaps the Pac 12 is that bad (and it isn't the time slots and lack of midwest/eat viewers)

 

[Gonzo]

Yes, if taking the top brands of the Pac 12. Maybe 22 and losing a Utah or AZ works better.

You know that cliché of the sum of parts being greater? Getting into those markets is huge for the BIG carriage fees (it is still a mostly linear model). Like adding a bunch of Rutgers, that actually have value brands though. And the Pac 12 brands value increase as now midwest/BIG viewership goes up, and they Pac 12 teams get some better time slots. This would be executed via pod scheduling, but Pac 12/BIG division standings. This also allows the BIG to keep UM-OSU-PSU from cannibalizing each other.

And I think the BIG could monetize their conference title game being the Rose Bowl.

Ideally it doesn't need to happen, but the SEC will eventually go after the PAC 12 teams that want to make $40 million more. If it isn't USC, it will be someone that wants to pass USC. And the Pac 12 cannot survive that. I think the BIG would rather make a little less and have the Pac12 preserved "as a division" then have programs continue to get poached by the SEC. I don't think they would make that much less, but perhaps the Pac 12 is that bad (and it isn't the time slots and lack of midwest/eat viewers)

I thought the whole B1G carriage fee thing was all but doomed in the not-so-distant streaming future?