COLUMN: What the Big 12 is banking on

[clonedude]

Boren screwed all of this up, no question at all about that.

He shot his mouth off in public, and the Big 12 has looked awful ever since. None of this expansion stuff should have ever been made public, but Boren screwed that up.

As for ISU, not expanding was the best thing for us IMO.

The thing that scares me the most is all the talk of going to just 4 power conferences at some point. If that happens, I could easily see ISU left out. So if the Big 12 really wants to get out in front of all this, why not somehow join the Big 12 together with the Pac 12 into a mega conference? That would almost have to be one of the power 4 conferences, and then let everyone else fight to be a part of the other 3 power 4 mega conferences.

Does that make any sense, or is it just dumb? I don't have enough knowledge about all of this to really know, so I am looking for constructive criticism here.

 

[CarrollCyclone]

They are definitely looking ahead and probably getting rid of ESPiN who has gone with the SE$ hype and ACC. Netflix is weak and I would rule them out. They don't make enough money and have negative cash flow.

A Big XII streaming channel seams like a no brainer but may just take time. How much would all of the Cyclones.TV viewers like to watch say Kansas State game from last week on rerun since we may have played at the same time.

This may involve a giant in the industry like Amazon or Apple or Google. Or simply be a channel like Cyclones.TV that you can already find on Roku and/or PS Vue etc.

I'm leary of folks who are hoping on the Big 12 leading the way with a new technology in place of a conference network. If ESPN can't yet figure out how to monetize its WatchESPN app, what are the Big 12 (or any other league) going to do that is drastically different to bring in the $$$$?

 

[HoopsTournament]

Dominoes (not the pizza) will fall prior to Big Ten tv renewal in the 2020s. Someone from Big 12 will join. Would be 2 teams. Keep hearing Texas, Texas Tech to Pac 12, Okie and Okie State to SEC and Texas and Kansas to Big 10. If you look at what most would say how it would split that is likely it. So Jamie has 6 years or so to figure out how to get ISU out. Play the game of survivor and get out of this thing. Sitting around in an iffy situation is not what should be done. If he does and the cards fall then everyone will scream why wasn't he doing something to improve the situation. I guarantee you every other school besides Okie and Texas are working this now. Okie State is probably protected by Okie and maybe Texas Tech protected by Texas. But the rest this has to be at the top of the list as far as getting plan Bs and Cs in place. Guarantee you this will continue to be used against those schools in football recruiting. The closer the time to early 2020s with no GOR extension the louder it will get. Just the reality.

ESPN will block Texas from going to Big 10 or Pac 12. There are clauses in . LHN contract that won't allow their third tier right to go to a non-ESPN network. So that kills your idea.

 

[Jambalaya]

“The Big 12 exists because we have Texas and Oklahoma in the room. If we take Texas and Oklahoma out of the room, we are in the Mountain West Conference and we are going to get $3 million.” (Jamie Pollard)

Good for Jamie. It's what I have been saying for 5 years essentially. I can't believe some people want to expel "Texas" because they may be hurting our feelings with their power and 'might'

And bring in losers like Memphis and Colo St and Tulane to make us feel better?

Ya! Let's get Bernie Sanders to replace Bob Bowlsby so we have 'fairness'

duhhhhhhhhh

 

[isu83]

Spent all morning on this. Hopefully it makes sense. I'm starting to understand why the league did what it did.

Should have worded a little differently. They either having Texas going to Big 10 or Pac 12 as they nearly did in 2010. Oklahoma seems to be a unanimous to SEC.

How lucky does Missouri feel???

Figured that is what you meant. As for Mizzou, their life in the SEC isn't exactly what they bargained for.

 

[Cloneon]

This is playing out just like I had expressed to JP 8 years ago. I have 100% confidence a different media paradigm will emerge within the next 8 years. 'Sports' is the one media content which, all things considered, is the least expensive to produce with the most diverse story lines and on a consistent basis. It's, IMO, the best content to 'back' with $$$. The guys at the top 'know' this. ESPN is, as stated, hemorrhaging; mainly because cable subscribers is declining. Has anyone stopped to ask 'why'? Answer that question and you'll know how to proceed. Twitter is starting to play ball. Expect others to follow.

 

[isu83]

“The Big 12 exists because we have Texas and Oklahoma in the room. If we take Texas and Oklahoma out of the room, we are in the Mountain West Conference and we are going to get $3 million.” (Jamie Pollard)

Good for Jamie. It's what I have been saying for 5 years essentially. I can't believe some people want to expel "Texas" because they may be hurting our feelings with their power and 'might'

And bring in losers like Memphis and Colo St and Tulane to make us feel better?

Ya! Let's get Bernie Sanders to replace Bob Bowlsby so we have 'fairness'

duhhhhhhhhh

If that is true we'd better kiss their derrieres more. Lol. And I personally agree we wI'll see a lot more cash as long as Texas and Oklahoma are part of the conference.

 

[CycloneBax]

I'm leary of folks who are hoping on the Big 12 leading the way with a new technology in place of a conference network. If ESPN can't yet figure out how to monetize its WatchESPN app, what are the Big 12 (or any other league) going to do that is drastically different to bring in the $$$$?

And this is why ESPN can't monetize the WatchESPN app(if they do they kill their monopoly of cable):
http://www.outkickthecoverage.com/espn-loses-4-million-subscribers-in-past-year-080416

So what happens if I'm right and the cable and satellite bundle is collapsing?

Couldn't ESPN go over the top to consumers?

Nope, that violates their currently existing cable and satellite contracts -- ESPN promised it wouldn't do this in order to get the companies to pay them so much money, Plus, it begs the larger question, if ESPN is going over the top to consumers, why wouldn't the leagues just try this directly themselves? Why do you need ESPN to be the middleman if you can handle distribution as well as they can?

 

[CycloneBax]

This is playing out just like I had expressed to JP 8 years ago. I have 100% confidence a different media paradigm will emerge within the next 8 years. 'Sports' is the one media content which, all things considered, is the least expensive to produce with the most diverse story lines and on a consistent basis. It's, IMO, the best content to 'back' with $$$. The guys at the top 'know' this. ESPN is, as stated, hemorrhaging; mainly because cable subscribers is declining. Has anyone stopped to ask 'why'? Answer that question and you'll know how to proceed. Twitter is starting to play ball. Expect others to follow.

And this is why ESPN is hemorrhaging:

https://www.techdirt.com/articles/2...rtbeat-if-it-meant-saving-8-month-cable.shtml

So people are moving to Sling TV, Vue, etc and as that happens, ESPN loses their subscribers that were forced to have it on cable. Dish now allows people to subscribe without ESPN too.

 

[isucy86]

The Big12 version of realignment speed dating was silly and makes the Big 12 look fragmented, but the process might be beneficial long term:

1. The 20 schools that "interviewed" probably got a wake up call. If they have any hope of being a P5 school they have about 6-7 years to show their revenue potential to the TV Networks. They need to look more like Louisville than CSU.
2. It probably allowed the Big12 to create a short list of candidates among the 20 based on input from ESPN/FOX.
3. Making such a public search may have opened a dialogue between the Big12 and possible P5 schools who are dissatisfied with their current conference.. Any school in another P5 conference (other than the SEC) isn't in a position to move until their current GOR expires. The Big12 also isn't in a position to offer a long-twrm home for those schools until the next round of TV Rights negotiations take place in 2022/2023.

Now the Big12 is on notice it has 6-7 years to get its crap together. On the field we must consistently have a couple top 10 programs and 3-4 other teams in the top 25. Hopefully, ISU football can be one of those programs.

Lastly, the Big12 most likely can't survive past 2025 with the current 10 members. To keep UT and OU in the Big12, Big12 TV Rights revenue will need to be comparable with the Big10 and SEC. That will most likely require the Big12 adding schools like USC, UCLA, Neb, etc

 

[NetflixAndClone]

Figured that is what you meant. As for Mizzou, their life in the SEC isn't exactly what they bargained for.

To be fair, Mizzou won back to back division championships. They weren't terrible in football but a poop swastika derailed their football team. Their coach also sadly got cancer and that hurt them a lot. They just didn't seem to recover from those two things.

Their basketball wasn't terrible but then their coach Haith checked out in his final two seasons and never recruited anyone to carry on the team. He than left in the middle of the night for Tulsa and Mizzou picked a former alum instead of a more qualified candidate.

 

[ArgentCy]

And this is why ESPN can't monetize the WatchESPN app(if they do they kill their monopoly of cable):
http://www.outkickthecoverage.com/espn-loses-4-million-subscribers-in-past-year-080416

So what happens if I'm right and the cable and satellite bundle is collapsing?

Couldn't ESPN go over the top to consumers?

Nope, that violates their currently existing cable and satellite contracts -- ESPN promised it wouldn't do this in order to get the companies to pay them so much money, Plus, it begs the larger question, if ESPN is going over the top to consumers, why wouldn't the leagues just try this directly themselves? Why do you need ESPN to be the middleman if you can handle distribution as well as they can?

DING, DING, DING we have a winner. ESPN is nothing but a middleman who can now be cut out. The Big XII is heading this way the most / fastest and it probably scares the heck out of the evil mouse house.

 

[Judoka]

And this is why ESPN is hemorrhaging:

https://www.techdirt.com/articles/2...rtbeat-if-it-meant-saving-8-month-cable.shtml

So people are moving to Sling TV, Vue, etc and as that happens, ESPN loses their subscribers that were forced to have it on cable. Dish now allows people to subscribe without ESPN too.

I actually disagree with you there - I'd hazard that a large percentage of people that have SlingTV or PSVue do so primarily to have access to ESPN (and to a lesser extent the other sports channels) and those services are a compromise between a full cable package and completely cutting the cord. So ESPN is making more money than they would without Sling/Vue being an option.

 

[HoopsTournament]

To be fair, Mizzou won back to back division championships. They weren't terrible in football but a poop swastika derailed their football team. Their coach also sadly got cancer and that hurt them a lot. They just didn't seem to recover from those two things.

Their basketball wasn't terrible but then their coach Haith checked out in his final two seasons and never recruited anyone to carry on the team. He than left in the middle of the night for Tulsa and Mizzou picked a former alum instead of a more qualified candidate.

And now that whole school is a dumpster fire. I would rather be ISU any day than Mizzou.

 

[AuH2O]

I'm leary of folks who are hoping on the Big 12 leading the way with a new technology in place of a conference network. If ESPN can't yet figure out how to monetize its WatchESPN app, what are the Big 12 (or any other league) going to do that is drastically different to bring in the $$$$?

I agree it's not simple and anything that Boren is involved in should be assumed it will fail.

However, the major difference between ESPN and the Big12 is that one has the actual content and the other is rapidly descending toward obsolete middleman status.

 

[CyArob]

Just saw the Do's and Don'ts talking points the league handed out to Big 12 officials. The fact that that was needed at all tells me a lot.

 

[SCarolinaCy]

http://www.sbnation.com/college-foo...-realignment-grant-of-rights-inevitable-death

Still, using that as a guide, who will have options, and who will be limited at best?

• Four options: Oklahoma, Texas
• Two options: Kansas, Oklahoma State, TCU
• One option: Baylor, Iowa State, Texas Tech, WVU
• No options: Kansas State

My recommendation for Baylor, Iowa State, Kansas State, Texas Tech, and West Virginia: be very good at football between now and 2024. That’s your best path to conference survival.

 

[LivntheCyLife]

One of the things I got out of Boren's comments is that I think his main reason for pushing for expansion is to get more content for a conference network. If I was in charge of the conference, I would seriously consider trading the conference title game rights for one home conference game for each team to go on a streaming network. Even better would be to get ESPN to buyout and shut down the Longhorn network to re-sell that content. One thing I think the rest of the conference wants is to get the Longhorn network commitment that currently runs to 2030 over before 2025 so they're less under ESPN's thumb for the next negotiation.

A big issue is what does Texas want to do with Longhorn network. Do they want to keep it until 2030 for the extra media coverage even though it seems unlikely it has any viability after then. There's been a lot of talk about UT/OU vs the rest of the conference, but the OU vs UT dynamic is also really important.

 

[CascadeClone]

Also don't be surprised in in 4 years there are rumors of flirting between the B12 and P12 schools. That isn't a good situation, JP even alluded to that, don't be surprised if it is a wait and see what happens there decision that was made by the Presidents and the recommendation of the ADs.

I think this will happen, but not necessarily bad for the Big12. The critical factor will be money and momentum.

If the Pac12 network still is struggling, and the Big12 has some semblance of a "digital presence" starting up with some good buzz (not even necessarily good results) - and the promise of more money than in the Pac12 -- then there will be teams that would want to jump TO the Big12. e.g. Utah/CO, the AZ schools.

Conversely, if the Pac12 gets their act together and is doing well on $$, and the Big12 still seems dysfunctional - then you could see OU/OSU head west, Texas go independent, KU to B1G etc. And the Big12 remnants would be a glorified AAC and/or merge with the AAC. Hopefulyl ISU would get a good landing spot in that eventuality.

Big12 really needs to get a competent media/money strategy. Wouldn't hurt for Texas & OU to get their programs to elite status for a couple years either, since they are the bell cows for the conference in the national media eyes.

 

[HFCS]

Doing this all so publicly was the one thing that was undeniably a mistake. Expanding, staying at ten, etc...you can argue. We've seen enough of conference expansion and raiding to know the winners make the deals in as private a way as they can and simply announce them, the losers do what the Big 12 has been doing with a public parade of candidates and meetings.