To start the discussion of, do you believe in global warming is caused by man and his carbon dioxide production or the sun irradiating at higher levels or some other cause? Please comment.
To kick off the discussion, here is one solar radiation argument:
Putting the "Green" in Greenland
By Chris Mayer
"I'm going to talk about global warming in a way you've never head of before - I'm going to talk about evidence." So began Dennis Avery at a recent investment conference. Avery is co-author, along with Fred Singer, of a fascinating new book titled Unstoppable Global Warming: Every 1,500 Years.
The authors debunk the idea that the Earth is warming primarily because of manmade carbon dioxide emissions - which the authors say represent only 3.5% of all carbon dioxide released into the air. Instead, they present compelling evidence, based on the work of thousands of qualified research scientists, of a long-term cycle of global climate change. They write: "The public has remained virtually unaware that the 1,500-year cycle offers the only explanation for the modern warming that is supported by physical evidence."
Consider the Vikings' dramatic experience with this cycle...
Near the end of the 10th century, the Vikings sailed west from Iceland in their now-iconic longships. They soon bumped into a huge new uninhabited island. Its cool waters held plentiful codfish and seals. Green grass covered its shores. The Vikings named it Greenland.
The Vikings soon settled there. They raised sheep and cattle. Grew vegetables. Traded sealskins and rope made from walrus hide to get timber and other things they needed. The colony thrived. By 1100, more than 3,000 people called Greenland home. They had 12 churches. Even had their own bishop.
The Vikings, though they could not have known it, were beneficiaries of the Medieval Warming. For 400 years, the temperatures in Northern Europe were 2 degrees warmer than before. Unfortunately for the Vikings, the Little Ice Age soon followed this period of warming - and lasted for 500 years.
As the Little Ice Age unfolded, ice formed a crust around Greenland's shores. Supply ships soon struggled to make their way to Greenland's coast. Winters grew longer. Summers grew shorter. Storms became more violent. The Vikings could no longer farm as they once did. In desperation, they ate their last milk cows. Inuit people came across the ice from the north. Struggles ensued over a smaller number of seals.
In 1410, the last supply ship broke through the ice. Soon thereafter, the settlers perished. Denmark recolonized Greenland in 1721 - more than 300 years later - after the Little Ice Age loosened its grip on the island.
The Viking experience shows how the temperature of the planet ebbed and flowed over the course of hundreds of years. In addition to the Vikings, we have evidence from other early civilizations. The Romans recorded a warming period between 200 B.C. and A.D. 600. They grew grapes in Great Britain and Northern Europe.
Evidence mounts from many sources. Ice cores give us climate histories going back 900,000 years. Seabed sediments, stalagmites, tree rings, fossilized pollen - all point to a roughly 1,500-year cycle of warming and cooling stretching back nearly a million years.
"The Earth continually warms and cools," the authors note.
"The cycle is undeniable, ancient, often abrupt and global. It is unstoppable." What causes it? Small changes in the irradiance of the sun. Boiled down to its barest essentials, a weaker sun creates a cooler Earth. A more active and stronger sun warms the planet. In short, solar variations drive the Earth's surface temperatures.
Scientists found a 95% correlation between sunspot numbers and global temperatures. That means that the two move in tandem nearly all of the time. This is a far better predictor than carbon dioxide emissions, which do not explain long periods in which carbon dioxide levels rose while the planet cooled, nor do they explain long stretches when the planet warmed as carbon dioxide levels fell.There are many more flaws in the popular greenhouse theory, detailed in the book. But the bottom line is that the theory does a poor job of explaining the temperature variations of the Earth's history.
In any event, the Earth has been warming slowly since about 1850. It will have an impact on human civilization. That impact is not as frightening as global warming advocates such as Al Gore want you to believe. In fact, human history tells us that the warming periods were prosperous times.Warmer climates in Canada and Russia will aid food production. The higher levels of carbon dioxide will stimulate plant growth and increase crop and forest yields. Longer growing seasons, fewer frosts, more rainfall - all of this will be good for agriculture.
There will be fewer storms in warm weather. A warmer planet means the temperature gap between the poles and the equator is smaller - lending less power to winds, waves and currents.
The fiercest storms occurred during periods of cooling, when those temperature gaps were large. During the Little Ice Age, from 1701-1850, the Caribbean experienced three times as many hurricanes as from 1950 to today. This evidence comes from numerous sources, including the meticulous records of the British navy - because of Britain's large sugar plantations in the region, its navy was also active in the area. Colder climates actually kill far more people than warmer climes, the authors show.
Yet, not all the effects of warming are good. For example, Avery said that as the tropical rain belts moved north, Canada and Siberia would get wetter, while the Southern U.S. would get drier. Some places would experience more flooding, others more drought.
One final thought: The authors point out the real fear should be the next ice age, which is inevitable. Then, places including Ohio and Indiana (forget Canada) would be covered with ice sheets a mile thick. California and the Great Plains would suffer century-long droughts.
The good news? As Avery and Singer note, "It may still be thousands of years away..."
To kick off the discussion, here is one solar radiation argument:
Putting the "Green" in Greenland
By Chris Mayer
"I'm going to talk about global warming in a way you've never head of before - I'm going to talk about evidence." So began Dennis Avery at a recent investment conference. Avery is co-author, along with Fred Singer, of a fascinating new book titled Unstoppable Global Warming: Every 1,500 Years.
The authors debunk the idea that the Earth is warming primarily because of manmade carbon dioxide emissions - which the authors say represent only 3.5% of all carbon dioxide released into the air. Instead, they present compelling evidence, based on the work of thousands of qualified research scientists, of a long-term cycle of global climate change. They write: "The public has remained virtually unaware that the 1,500-year cycle offers the only explanation for the modern warming that is supported by physical evidence."
Consider the Vikings' dramatic experience with this cycle...
Near the end of the 10th century, the Vikings sailed west from Iceland in their now-iconic longships. They soon bumped into a huge new uninhabited island. Its cool waters held plentiful codfish and seals. Green grass covered its shores. The Vikings named it Greenland.
The Vikings soon settled there. They raised sheep and cattle. Grew vegetables. Traded sealskins and rope made from walrus hide to get timber and other things they needed. The colony thrived. By 1100, more than 3,000 people called Greenland home. They had 12 churches. Even had their own bishop.
The Vikings, though they could not have known it, were beneficiaries of the Medieval Warming. For 400 years, the temperatures in Northern Europe were 2 degrees warmer than before. Unfortunately for the Vikings, the Little Ice Age soon followed this period of warming - and lasted for 500 years.
As the Little Ice Age unfolded, ice formed a crust around Greenland's shores. Supply ships soon struggled to make their way to Greenland's coast. Winters grew longer. Summers grew shorter. Storms became more violent. The Vikings could no longer farm as they once did. In desperation, they ate their last milk cows. Inuit people came across the ice from the north. Struggles ensued over a smaller number of seals.
In 1410, the last supply ship broke through the ice. Soon thereafter, the settlers perished. Denmark recolonized Greenland in 1721 - more than 300 years later - after the Little Ice Age loosened its grip on the island.
The Viking experience shows how the temperature of the planet ebbed and flowed over the course of hundreds of years. In addition to the Vikings, we have evidence from other early civilizations. The Romans recorded a warming period between 200 B.C. and A.D. 600. They grew grapes in Great Britain and Northern Europe.
Evidence mounts from many sources. Ice cores give us climate histories going back 900,000 years. Seabed sediments, stalagmites, tree rings, fossilized pollen - all point to a roughly 1,500-year cycle of warming and cooling stretching back nearly a million years.
"The Earth continually warms and cools," the authors note.
"The cycle is undeniable, ancient, often abrupt and global. It is unstoppable." What causes it? Small changes in the irradiance of the sun. Boiled down to its barest essentials, a weaker sun creates a cooler Earth. A more active and stronger sun warms the planet. In short, solar variations drive the Earth's surface temperatures.
Scientists found a 95% correlation between sunspot numbers and global temperatures. That means that the two move in tandem nearly all of the time. This is a far better predictor than carbon dioxide emissions, which do not explain long periods in which carbon dioxide levels rose while the planet cooled, nor do they explain long stretches when the planet warmed as carbon dioxide levels fell.There are many more flaws in the popular greenhouse theory, detailed in the book. But the bottom line is that the theory does a poor job of explaining the temperature variations of the Earth's history.
In any event, the Earth has been warming slowly since about 1850. It will have an impact on human civilization. That impact is not as frightening as global warming advocates such as Al Gore want you to believe. In fact, human history tells us that the warming periods were prosperous times.Warmer climates in Canada and Russia will aid food production. The higher levels of carbon dioxide will stimulate plant growth and increase crop and forest yields. Longer growing seasons, fewer frosts, more rainfall - all of this will be good for agriculture.
There will be fewer storms in warm weather. A warmer planet means the temperature gap between the poles and the equator is smaller - lending less power to winds, waves and currents.
The fiercest storms occurred during periods of cooling, when those temperature gaps were large. During the Little Ice Age, from 1701-1850, the Caribbean experienced three times as many hurricanes as from 1950 to today. This evidence comes from numerous sources, including the meticulous records of the British navy - because of Britain's large sugar plantations in the region, its navy was also active in the area. Colder climates actually kill far more people than warmer climes, the authors show.
Yet, not all the effects of warming are good. For example, Avery said that as the tropical rain belts moved north, Canada and Siberia would get wetter, while the Southern U.S. would get drier. Some places would experience more flooding, others more drought.
One final thought: The authors point out the real fear should be the next ice age, which is inevitable. Then, places including Ohio and Indiana (forget Canada) would be covered with ice sheets a mile thick. California and the Great Plains would suffer century-long droughts.
The good news? As Avery and Singer note, "It may still be thousands of years away..."
