How long until the NFL plays on Saturdays?

[clonedude]

Looks like they have 6 home games this year, and 6 home games in 2025 - so no, highly doubt season ticket prices would decrease. Ticket prices don't decrease when we go from 7 home games to 6 (even when the lost home game is vs Iowa) - best we can hope is they stay the same.

Fans probably expect to alternate from having 6 home games one year, and then 7 the next season, etc... so for KSU fans they now might have 3 years in a row of 6 home games... you don't think some are not happy about that?

I'm just pointing out that... this rush for the almighty dollar doesn't always have the best interests of the fan in mind, and college football may reach a point where they look back and regret screwing over the fans. Looking at you B1G and SEC.

 

[Tailg8er]

Fans probably expect to alternate from having 6 home games one year, and then 7 the next season, etc... so for KSU fans they now might have 3 years in a row of 6 home games... you don't think some are not happy about that?

I'm just pointing out that... this rush for the almighty dollar doesn't always have the best interests of the fan in mind, and college football may reach a point where they look back and regret screwing over the fans. Looking at you B1G and SEC.

Oh I agree with that 100%.

 

[SolterraCyclone]

More evidence, imo, the NFL is planting seeds to contest that law. Another Friday game on the schedule

Why is there a Friday night game in Brazil? Eagles, Packers set for Week 1 international game | Sporting News

The Eagles and Packers will head to São Paulo, Brazil, during Week 1 of the 2024 NFL season for the league's first game in South America. Rather than playing on a usual NFL night, the teams will face off on a Friday. The Sporting News explains why — and how — they can do that.

www.sportingnews.com

 

[AuH2O]

Agree, a product can be too saturated. And I feel like the NFL has hit that point:

• IMO going from 16 to 17 games was marginally OK, and definitely not a fan of 18 games. Maybe its my attention span, but having the football season stretch from Sep to late February is a turnoff for me. I tend to turn my focus to college hoops early January. I have the same issue with CFB. Having CFP run into late January is not attractive to me, I already find CFB Championship on Jan 10 anti-climatic.
• Historically, I watched 2 games on Sunday and MNF. When the NFL added a Sunday night game, I dropped MNF and get my NFL fill on Sundays. Especially after watch CFB on Saturdays. I have never picked up on watching TNF.

I don’t think your views reflect broader viewership. When the NFL can divvy up lesser games and show them regionally and have the sum of regional viewership beat all but the biggest regular season CFB games each week it suggests the networks are leaving a hell of a lot of eyeballs off their products.

The cannibalization argument doesn’t make sense. The alternative to NFL competing with college is the current model, which is splitting NFL games into regional viewership, essentially competing with itself.

There will still be networks without Sat NFL. ABC/ESPN has 6 slots for their best college games plus all the additional ESPNs. The networks with both NFL and CFB probably maximize viewers by showing their best CFB game on their flagship along with NFL in the other slot(s).

There are going to be a handful of big CFB games that can beat or be close to the lesser NFL matchups. There are still enough flagship station slots to air those, with other college games going to secondary channels and streaming.

So I don’t think the NFL competing against CFB is the NFLs concern. It isn’t like the alternative is competing against Golden Girls reruns. The alternative is losing viewers because a bunch of their games are regionally televised.

 

[isucy86]

I don’t think your views reflect broader viewership. When the NFL can divvy up lesser games and show them regionally and have the sum of regional viewership beat all but the biggest regular season CFB games each week it suggests the networks are leaving a hell of a lot of eyeballs off their products.

The cannibalization argument doesn’t make sense. The alternative to NFL competing with college is the current model, which is splitting NFL games into regional viewership, essentially competing with itself.

There will still be networks without Sat NFL. ABC/ESPN has 6 slots for their best college games plus all the additional ESPNs. The networks with both NFL and CFB probably maximize viewers by showing their best CFB game on their flagship along with NFL in the other slot(s).

There are going to be a handful of big CFB games that can beat or be close to the lesser NFL matchups. There are still enough flagship station slots to air those, with other college games going to secondary channels and streaming.

So I don’t think the NFL competing against CFB is the NFLs concern. It isn’t like the alternative is competing against Golden Girls reruns. The alternative is losing viewers because a bunch of their games are regionally televised.

It might be a plus for the NFL to show Saturday games. But the TV folks might feel cannibalism is an issue. Recently, saw football viewership data and it was roughly:

1. 55% of viewers watch both college and NFL games
2. 32% of viewers watch only NFL
3. 13% of viewers only watch college games.

So the big question is the 55%- would they choose between college or NFL in head-to-head games? TV Networks wouldn't pay the same rights fees if NFL viewership declines 15%?

Plus the NFL has 16 games of inventory, while there are 33ish P4 games each weekend and a similar # of G5 games. If the NFL decides to go head-to-head on Saturdays, colleges can go head to head on Sundays just as easily. Plus colleges have volleyball, wrestling, MBB & WBB inventory it could show on Sundays.

 

[SolterraCyclone]

It might be a plus for the NFL to show Saturday games. But the TV folks might feel cannibalism is an issue. Recently, saw football viewership data and it was roughly:

1. 55% of viewers watch both college and NFL games
2. 32% of viewers watch only NFL
3. 13% of viewers only watch college games.

So the big question is the 55%- would they choose between college or NFL in head-to-head games? TV Networks wouldn't pay the same rights fees if NFL viewership declines 15%?

Plus the NFL has 16 games of inventory, while there are 33ish P4 games each weekend and a similar # of G5 games. If the NFL decides to go head-to-head on Saturdays, colleges can go head to head on Sundays just as easily. Plus colleges have volleyball, wrestling, MBB & WBB inventory it could show on Sundays.

I have no data to support this, but I'd be willing to bet that the majority of those 55% of viewers who watch both college and NFL, prioritize NFL. NFL ratings, and the percentage of users who watch only NFL versus only College support this assertion.

 

[isucy86]

I have no data to support this, but I'd be willing to bet that the majority of those 55% of viewers who watch both college and NFL, prioritize NFL. NFL ratings, and the percentage of users who watch only NFL versus only College support this assertion.

The majority of the 55% would based on the 32% vs. 13% ratio. That's a 70/30 ratio. But can the NFL afford to lose 16% of it's viewers (30% of 55%)? And I have a feeling some NFL franchises would be hurt more than others. Can't tell me schools like Penn State, Michigan, Ohio State, Georgia, Bama, Tennessee, etc. wouldn't impact franchises in those states significantly.

Also, if the NFL goes after college football viewers, that will impact CFB revenue. And does that impact how P4 schools invest in both sports? Colleges serve as a no-cost minor league system for the NFL and NBA. Do both professional leagues want to invest in a robust minor league system?

 

[SolterraCyclone]

The majority of the 55% would based on the 32% vs. 13% ratio. That's a 70/30 ratio. But can the NFL afford to lose 16% of it's viewers (30% of 55%)? And I have a feeling some NFL franchises would be hurt more than others. Can't tell me schools like Penn State, Michigan, Ohio State, Georgia, Bama, Tennessee, etc. wouldn't impact franchises in those states significantly.

Also, if the NFL goes after college football viewers, that will impact CFB revenue. And does that impact how P4 schools invest in both sports? Colleges serve as a no-cost minor league system for the NFL and NBA. Do both professional leagues want to invest in a robust minor league system?

I think the NFL would gladly sacrifice 16% of potential viewers for these games, because Saturday games would be generating impressions the NFL otherwise wouldn't be receiving. So, you'd have roughly the same number of people watching games on Sunday, plus ~70% of that audience also watching on Saturday.

It's also better for TV networks, because you would have more people watching NFL games than a college game would garner. Additional eyeballs allows them to charge higher advertising rates.

And I don't think the NFL is scared one iota of any of college program, blue blood or not. Because any filtering off of blue blood fan bases (Michigan, Ohio State, etc.) watching their teams on Saturday, would be more than made up by the increase in casual viewers nationwide on the NFL game.

Let's say an NFL game competed with Alabama and Tennessee, ok you lose ~2M TV households between those two states. But by offering the NFL you pick up New York (7.3M TV households), and Boston (3M TV households), and Los Angeles (5.9M TV households), and San Francisco (2.6M TV households), and Denver (1.7M TV households) etc, etc.

Maybe it's because I live in Denver which is definitely a pro town. But you realize when you get out college towns how small college sports is compared to their professional brethren.

 

[SolterraCyclone]

Looks like the NFL is terrified of CFB

 

[isucy86]

I think the NFL would gladly sacrifice 16% of potential viewers for these games, because Saturday games would be generating impressions the NFL otherwise wouldn't be receiving. So, you'd have roughly the same number of people watching games on Sunday, plus ~70% of that audience also watching on Saturday.

It's also better for TV networks, because you would have more people watching NFL games than a college game would garner. Additional eyeballs allows them to charge higher advertising rates.

And I don't think the NFL is scared one iota of any of college program, blue blood or not. Because any filtering off of blue blood fan bases (Michigan, Ohio State, etc.) watching their teams on Saturday, would be more than made up by the increase in casual viewers nationwide on the NFL game.

Let's say an NFL game competed with Alabama and Tennessee, ok you lose ~2M TV households between those two states. But by offering the NFL you pick up New York (7.3M TV households), and Boston (3M TV households), and Los Angeles (5.9M TV households), and San Francisco (2.6M TV households), and Denver (1.7M TV households) etc, etc.

Maybe it's because I live in Denver which is definitely a pro town. But you realize when you get out college towns how small college sports is compared to their professional brethren.

I don't think we are talking the NFL losing 2M households. Sure singular college games don't draw as well as singular NFL games. But remember college viewership is spread across 33ish P5 and 33ish G5 games each weekend. Add up the viewership on any college football weekend and it is over 50M people. And that doesn't count people at the CFB games.

I think you are underestimating the passion of some college football fan bases. Sure Denver is a pro town and people watch the Broncos over CU. But there are a lot of NFL franchises that would be impacted if fans have to choose between their NFL and college team. I am sure there is a lot of overlap between Penn State and Steeler/Eagle fans. Same goes for Ohio State and Cleveland & Cincinnati or Tennesseee and the Titans, etc.

I'm not sure the NFL picks up more fans than today. Just because a Bronco game is on Saturday doesn't guarantee that fans in New York or Boston will watch that game when their teams are playing on Sunday. A product can be over-saturated. Maybe you watch all 5 NFL time slots, but I would expect most people are 2-3. So adding games in 3 time slots on Saturday doesn't mean the casual fan in LA or NY will watch those games.

IMO the NFL adding Saturday games would be a lose/lose for the NFL, CFB and the TV Networks.

 

[AuH2O]

I don't think we are talking the NFL losing 2M households. Sure singular college games don't draw as well as singular NFL games. But remember college viewership is spread across 33ish P5 and 33ish G5 games each weekend. Add up the viewership on any college football weekend and it is over 50M people. And that doesn't count people at the CFB games.

I think you are underestimating the passion of some college football fan bases. Sure Denver is a pro town and people watch the Broncos over CU. But there are a lot of NFL franchises that would be impacted if fans have to choose between their NFL and college team. I am sure there is a lot of overlap between Penn State and Steeler/Eagle fans. Same goes for Ohio State and Cleveland & Cincinnati or Tennesseee and the Titans, etc.

I'm not sure the NFL picks up more fans than today. Just because a Bronco game is on Saturday doesn't guarantee that fans in New York or Boston will watch that game when their teams are playing on Sunday. A product can be over-saturated. Maybe you watch all 5 NFL time slots, but I would expect most people are 2-3. So adding games in 3 time slots on Saturday doesn't mean the casual fan in LA or NY will watch those games.

IMO the NFL adding Saturday games would be a lose/lose for the NFL, CFB and the TV Networks.

But I think you are missing the most important point. The NFL showing games on Saturdays means games that would’ve been doubled or tripled up in regional coverage gets a national slot.

 

[isucy86]

But I think you are missing the most important point. The NFL showing games on Saturdays means games that would’ve been doubled or tripled up in regional coverage gets a national slot.

It might be the only pro game during that Saturday slot, but it's going against potentially a dozen P5 college games at that specific time.

The NFL on Saturday being a similar audience to Sunday or even incremental audience isn't a given. The NFL has Sunday captive for its fans. People will watch 2 or 3 games. But if a fans primary NFL team plays on Saturday, will they also watch on Sunday? IMO a lot of NFL fans aren't going to spend both their weekend days on NFL.

 

[isucy86]

Looks like the NFL is terrified of CFB

I think you have it backwards. The NFL has been playing Saturdays in 2nd half of December for 40-50 years. Nothing new.

What's new is CFB 12 team playoff and P4 games being played on Saturday's in late December.

I will be curious what viewership looks like. I guess we now know why FOX let ESPN spend $1.2B annually on the CFP. Their happy to show NFL. Wonder if they are showing the games under their existing NFL TV deal or this is incremental $ for NFL.

 

[Sousaclone]

I think you have it backwards. The NFL has been playing Saturdays in 2nd half of December for 40-50 years. Nothing new.

What's new is CFB 12 team playoff and P4 games being played on Saturday's in late December.

I will be curious what viewership looks like. I guess we now know why FOX let ESPN spend $1.2B annually on the CFP. Their happy to show NFL. Wonder if they are showing the games under their existing NFL TV deal or this is incremental $ for NFL.

It'll depend on the CFP matchups, but I'd bet pretty heavily on the NFL wiping the floor with the CFP playoffs. Ravens/Steelers is a big rivalry game and will interest most of the east coast markets. Houston / KC could be pretty good assuming the Texans don't regress horribly (granted the chiefs are still the chiefs).

Last years game would have been:

No. 12 Liberty at No. 5 Florida State
No. 11 Ole Miss at No. 6 Georgia
No. 10 Penn State at No. 7 Ohio State
No. 9 Missouri at No. 8 Oregon

Only two of those games have decent draw IMO.

 

[AuH2O]

It might be the only pro game during that Saturday slot, but it's going against potentially a dozen P5 college games at that specific time.

The NFL on Saturday being a similar audience to Sunday or even incremental audience isn't a given. The NFL has Sunday captive for its fans. People will watch 2 or 3 games. But if a fans primary NFL team plays on Saturday, will they also watch on Sunday? IMO a lot of NFL fans aren't going to spend both their weekend days on NFL.

Viewership doesn’t have to be similar to a nationally televised game on Sunday. Every new slot they get into on Saturday moves a game that would’ve been available to 1/3 or 1/4 of the country to now being televised in the entirety of the US. Seems like that alone is going to more than offset competition from CFB.

 

[ClubCy]

The NFL can do whatever they want whenever they want. In 2023, they averaged over 17 million per game. The least watched game of week would still be one of if not the most watched college games in any particular week.

Even the early Sunday morning Europe games averaged over 5 million views and half the country is still in bed.