How would Iowa State have been in the Big East this year

[LutherClone]

I'm not a guy who likes to look at what could have been, but watching the UCONN/OK game, I got to thinking. It sounds like we were pretty close to heading east with Mizzou, K-State, and KU if they Big 12 broke up. Since the sky didn't fall, it didn't happen. Would we have gone bowling if we played in the Big East + Forgotten IV? I'm inclined to thank that we would have. Thoughts?

 

[jbhtexas]

I'm not a guy who likes to look at what could have been, but watching the UCONN/OK game, I got to thinking. It sounds like we were pretty close to heading east with Mizzou, K-State, and KU if they Big 12 broke up. Since the sky didn't fall, it didn't happen. Would we have gone bowling if we played in the Big East + Forgotten IV? I'm inclined to thank that we would have. Thoughts?

Maybe. But then again, ISU couldn't beat KSU and CU, so maybe not...

 

[CYinPA]

8-4 at least.

 

[theshadow]

Divisional play (12 teams).

Same 4 non-conference (NIU, Iowa, UNI, Utah). 2-2
3 same conference (KU, KSU, MU) as division mates. 1-2
2 westernmost BE team (Louisville, 7-6; Cincinnati, 4-8) as 5th and 6th division teams. 1-1/2-0

4-5 or 5-4 projected record at this point.

Then 3 of these eastern teams:
West Virginia (9-4), Connecticut (8-5), South Florida (8-5), Syracuse (8-5), Pittsburgh (7-5), Rutgers (4-8)

 

[CyFan61]

Divisional play (12 teams).

Same 4 non-conference (NIU, Iowa, UNI, Utah). 2-2
3 same conference (KU, KSU, MU) as division mates. 1-2
2 westernmost BE team (Louisville, 7-6; Cincinnati, 4-8) as 5th and 6th division teams. 1-1/2-0

4-5 or 5-4 projected record at this point.

Then 3 of these eastern teams:
West Virginia (9-4), Connecticut (8-5), South Florida (8-5), Syracuse (8-5), Pittsburgh (7-5), Rutgers (4-8)

Based on this I see us at 5-7 again as the most likely scenario. No different.

 

[Wesley]

Based on this I see us at 5-7 again as the most likely scenario. No different.

So, we would still have to win. Maybe the grass is not greener on the other side. Folks, we have to get better if we want to go bowling anywhere.

Even with three easy non conf games, we would probably have to dump the Iowa game and win two in conference. We just need to get better in any conference.

 

[Al_4_State]

After watching Syracuse drop 36 on KSU, I don't think we'd be all that better off.

 

[HFCS]

Based on this I see us at 5-7 again as the most likely scenario. No different.

Northern Illinois and Texas Tech are better or the same as a lot of those teams. Texas was better or the same as a lot of those teams.

There is no way this ISU team doesn't win six games in the weakest BCS conference with 5 non-conf games to schedule.

ISU's computer ranking was 1st-4th place almost the entire year among the Big East teams. UConn is barely in front of ISU right now.

 

[CyFan61]

Northern Illinois and Texas Tech are better or the same as a lot of those teams. Texas was better or the same as a lot of those teams.

There is no way this ISU team doesn't win six games in the weakest BCS conference with 5 non-conf games to schedule.

ISU's computer ranking was 1st-4th place almost the entire year among the Big East teams. UConn is barely in front of ISU right now.

I'm not talking about throwing us in with those teams. We wouldn't play 5 non-conf games as adding us to the Big East would make it a 9 team league. I used the scenario that theshadow posted.

We would play 7 of the same teams and assuming we had the same record, we would be 3-4 there. Then add games against Louisville and Cincinnati and I predict we go 1-1 against them, making us 4-5. Our final three games are against some combination of West Virginia (9-4), Connecticut (8-5), South Florida (8-5), Syracuse (8-5), Pittsburgh (7-5), Rutgers (4-8). Being realistic I'm picking us to have gone 1-2 against that competition most likely (depending on scheduling of course, but the most likely outcome). That's a 5-7 record.

Remember that this is a team that could not beat Colorado. This is a team that got embarassed by Oklahoma. Our only positive showing on the road was against a bad, bad Texas team. I'm not saying that we aren't headed in the right direction but it is laughable to suggest that we could have won the Big East or even 8 games in that conference.

 

[HFCS]

I'm not talking about throwing us in with those teams. We wouldn't play 5 non-conf games as adding us to the Big East would make it a 9 team league. I used the scenario that theshadow posted.

We would play 7 of the same teams and assuming we had the same record, we would be 3-4 there. Then add games against Louisville and Cincinnati and I predict we go 1-1 against them, making us 4-5. Our final three games are against some combination of West Virginia (9-4), Connecticut (8-5), South Florida (8-5), Syracuse (8-5), Pittsburgh (7-5), Rutgers (4-8). Being realistic I'm picking us to have gone 1-2 against that competition most likely (depending on scheduling of course, but the most likely outcome). That's a 5-7 record.

Remember that this is a team that could not beat Colorado. This is a team that got embarassed by Oklahoma. Our only positive showing on the road was against a bad, bad Texas team. I'm not saying that we aren't headed in the right direction but it is laughable to suggest that we could have won the Big East or even 8 games in that conference.

Adding Missouri, KState and ISU this year would have drastically improved the conference, they'd have been 3 of the top 5 teams in the new 12 team league this year. Even with KU being bad it would have been a huge improvement to add those 4. I'm using computer rankings to make that statement, not my opinion.

I still think taking Oklahoma/Texas/Texas Tech/Nebraska/Colorado off the schedule for any five Big East teams results in at least one more win.

West Virginia, Pitt and UConn could give us a game at Jack Trice but we could have beat any of them at home too. Any of the other Big East teams we beat at Jack Trice and have a 50/50 chance on the road.

I'm guessing our division would have been ISU, KU, KSU, Missouri, Louisville, Cincinatti? Then let's say our non-conf is the best team, a medium team, and the worst team.

KU-W
KSU-loss, even though in this hypothetical it could be a real home win
Missouri-loss
Louisville-home win/road toss up
Cincinatti-home win/road toss up
WV-road loss/home toss up
South Florida-home win/road toss up
Rutgers-win

That schedule is easier than OU, Texas, Nebraska, Tech, Missouri, KSU, CU, KU even with Texas being down. If Texas were Texas in a normal year that Big East schedule is much easier.

*Example of how much tougher Big 12 was than Big East using Sagarin numbers:
Big East victories over top 30 teams: 2
Big 12 victories over top 30 teams: 12
Big Ten: 10

 

[CrossCyed]

It's moot. Even if the Big 12 would have fallen apart, we wouldn't have been in the Big East till next year anyways.