It has Iowa as a 57% (2.4 point) favorite. The predicted final score is -1.2 to -3.7 (-4.9 total). Recommend taking the under.
Husker-Hawk Analytics (FEI)
- Thread starter besserheimerphat
- Start date
I like the thesis. But if you have a model where negative numbers are calculated for a football game then you have a stupid model. Just because… and I’m just saying….there are no negative scores in football.
Here’s rooting for a 0-0 game going into the fourth OT
Here’s rooting for a 0-0 game going into the fourth OT
He did say that his models don't usually work well for Iowa, but this year it's been pretty good predicting their outcomes.
But yes, clearly two top defenses playing against two bottom offenses is so far of an outlier that occasionally the model will go off the rails. It's almost literally 99th percentile defense versus 1st percentile offense no matter who has the ball so it's like a literal 1-in-a-million match up. It's basically saying both teams are more likely to score by not playing offense. But defensive scoring is rare so it spits out a negative score prediction. Punting is winning.
I'd rather see a goofy but explainable result than adding an arbitrary fudge factor.
Rough guess:
It's a close game throughout with the feeling like Nebraska could be up by about 2 TDs.
With two minutes left, Iowa returns a punt to about Nebraska's 35, and scores on some mundane run play.
It's a close game throughout with the feeling like Nebraska could be up by about 2 TDs.
With two minutes left, Iowa returns a punt to about Nebraska's 35, and scores on some mundane run play.
Side-bar, How mad is the big ten office. OSU and Mich play as 2 and 3. If Washington and FSU win, whoever loses between OSU and Mich has to drop to no less than 5 and out of the playoffs. You can't have 4 undefeated P5 teams in 5 different conferences and have a one loss team making the playoffs in front of them. Then if Texas does win out, even if one of the other undefeateds lose, you gotta go with the one loss P5 champ, right?
It would be hilarious if Iowa pulls off a miracle and knocks tOSU or UM out.
Does the comittee switch it to 8 teams in a week's time?
Bury?
It'll be a one score game that comes down to one or two plays.
Rhule will get Nebraska to at least have a chance.
Yep, one score game that could go either way I feel. Iowa isn't getting the turnovers this year that they usually feast on to put games away. Actually Iowa is -3 in turnover margin on the year, which is pretty remarkable considering their offense and overall record.
The model isn’t stupid. The two teams are. It’s like coming home 10 times in a row with a treat in your hand for your dog, but on the 11th time, fake like the treat is in your hand. Watch your dog’s look. The dog’s thesis isn’t stupid.
Why would that be horrific?
What a funny way for the B1G to go out as it is; the west finally wins it with a a slmewhat decent team against one of three good teams in the conference.
Sure, Iowa fans would be unbearable but they will be regardless; if they get blown out they'll still claim victory.
It's obvious to hok fans that Iowa should be in the CFP if that is the case...it would be a travesty to leave them out. After all, the refs screwed them in the Minnesota came.
Oh yeah, BF should be rehired too.
