I wanted to go back to this post real quick because you seemed to think you knew what you were talking about. Not trying to be rude but I want people to see the facts rather then just assume what you said above to be true. If I can save some fanatics some coin, hopefully they'll in turn donate it to Chris and the guys.
Here's the home records against the spread for college football teams the last 3 years. It's sad, but yes I keep all this stuff for modeling purposes and have some great references to help out.
CFB HOME DOGS ATS
2014-2015: 114-128
2015-2016: 115-153
2016-2017: 134-128
This does not include any bowl games, only regular season games. And if you want to dig deeper and further understand how far off your statement was, you can go back and calculate the odds and implied winning %.
I don't think I suggested betting every home dog. Furthermore, your numbers will likely vary from 0-3 point dogs, 4-7 point dogs, and 7+ point dogs.
But you can make money betting Conference home dogs especially in 7+ situations. My experience and every game is situational but I would highlight those games first and then dig deeper.
What I can certainly inform the forum is that you don't make money laying -120 on Prop bets. Especially when injuries, blowouts, etc can effect those bets more so than a side or total. Can you win prop bets here and there absolutely. Are you going to find long term success betting props? No.... and why not.
If you are betting at -108 which most reputable online sites (Heritage, etc) offer you will need to hit 52% to make the smallest of profits.
If you are betting at -110 which is standard in Vegas you have to hit 53% to make a small profit.
If you are betting -115 or -120 on prop bets then you will need to hit at a 54-55% clip to make a profit.
I've been betting games for over 15 years and the best yearly percentage that I have ever had was 57.5% and it was a fabulous year. You find me a person that consistently hits props at over 58% and I will show you a liar.