Is our first game a must win?

[ahaselhu]

Well, last season, ISU went 7-6, with a win in the Insight bowl over Minnesota. They were 6-6 regular season, and 3-5 Big 12. However, you really have to consider a couple things.

1) Their non-conference schedule last year consisted of Kent State, Army, North Dakota State and Iowa. This year they face Northern Illinois, Northern Iowa, Utah and Iowa. Northern Iowa has beaten ISU, and nearly beat Iowa last year. Utah's pretty good... Point is, while last year ISU's non-con record was 3 solid wins and 1 solid loss, they don't have that sort of 'guarantee' of wins this season.

2) They replace Baylor, Ok State and Tx A&M with Texas, Oklahoma and Tx Tech.

A&M may be better than Tech this year, but Tech is still pretty good. But point is, ISU only has so many "probable wins" this year, in NIU, UNI, Kansas, perhaps Colorado or KSU. That's only 5 wins. You already need an upset of sorts just to make it to 6 wins. Lose to NIU in week 1 and you're going to have to upset two teams to make it to 6 wins. Not impossible, but definitely not the pressure you want to place on your guys just to reach 6-6.

The one thing we have going for us with this schedule is that the tough games that are winnable are at home or neutral. Nebraska, Missouri, Texas Tech, Utah, KSU. All at home or at a neutral site. I think if we start 1-2 with a win against KSU, we still have a good shot at 6 wins. Less margin for error, sure, but still a good shot. That's why I don't think this is a must win from a fan's perspective.

I would say that we need to win at least one of NIU and KSU.

 

[junckerl]

I said no, will it really hurt us if we don't win, yes. Does it make it impossible to go to a bowl no. After we lost to Iowa last year I heard people say there was no way we were going to a bowl, I don't think any of them predicted we would beat Nebraska and finish with 6 wins after that. If we want to comfortably go to a bowl game I think we need to start off the year by winning at least 2 of the first 3. This will give us the momentum and confidence necessary to get to being bowl eligible.

With all of the close loses we had last year in our big 12 north games I think the combination of another years experience for our guys and whole lot of new coaches and starting players on those other teams we should have a good chance of pulling off some good solid conference wins.

 

[ZJohnson]

Does a bear **** in the woods? Is the pope Catholic? Was Abe Lincoln an honest man?

I mean seriously, what kind of poll is this?

 

[edr247]

I said no, will it really hurt us if we don't win, yes. Does it make it impossible to go to a bowl no. After we lost to Iowa last year I heard people say there was no way we were going to a bowl, I don't think any of them predicted we would beat Nebraska and finish with 6 wins after that. If we want to comfortably go to a bowl game I think we need to start off the year by winning at least 2 of the first 3. This will give us the momentum and confidence necessary to get to being bowl eligible.

With all of the close loses we had last year in our big 12 north games I think the combination of another years experience for our guys and whole lot of new coaches and starting players on those other teams we should have a good chance of pulling off some good solid conference wins.

Yeah, I wouldn't write off the Cyclones if they lose to NIU on week 1. But it certainly makes the road to a bowl game much more difficult to attain. NIU is a must win, IMO, because it sits in that 'easy' win category.

(Yes, I know "Any given Saturday" and all that, but doesn't take away that on paper, it should be a ISU victory.)

Anyway, if you guys are curious, I did some quick look ups on College Football Data Warehouse (great resource, btw), and apparently, you guys have faced both UNI and NIU in the same year before.

In 2003, Iowa State beat UNI 17-10 and lost to NIU 16-24. The following year, they beat UNI 23-0, and beat NIU 48-41.

ISU also has a 4-0 record against Utah, but haven't played them since '76

 

[candg4ever]

Maybe not a must win, but it would be a real good confidence builder against a supposedly good mid-major team to start an awfully tough season.

 

[jdoggivjc]

We have 5 "must win" games on this schedule: Northern Illinois, K-State, Northern Iowa, Colorado, and Kansas. As it is, we're still going to have to pull out at least one out of the "plausible wins": Iowa, Utah, Texas Tech, Nebraska, and Missouri to qualify for a bowl, but losing from the "must win" set of teams means we have to win more of our plausibles. Of course, if we happen to knock off either Texas or Oklahoma it'll change the entire dynamic of our season. However, I'm a big believer in winning the games on the schedule that you "should" win. I'm a big believer in if we sweep the 5 "must wins" we'll find at least one more win.

 

[stlcardinals5]

it almost is. Brutal schedule this year. when you play 4 top 10 teams you know youre in for a grind. when you have a year like that you have to win the games like these at home. its what separates good teams from average-mediocre teams. and i agree a loss could mean no bowl.

 

[Wesley]

All games are a must win.

:biglaugh:HELL :biglaugh:YES!:biglaugh:

 

[Cyclone42]

It's kind of like this last men's basketball season. Remember, for example, the Northwestern game? We lost it, and that should have been an indicator of the kind of season that was to come. But, too many people excused it, saying "We'll still be good, we lost because Northwestern is a really good team, a shoe-in for the NCAAs!!" Of course, Northwestern ended up losing in the first game of the NIT. Hardly the powerhouse they were supposed to be when we lost to them.

Anyway, if we lose this game, it will be an indicator that we are not very good. We could still recover, but that won't be very likely, IMO. So, it is a "must win", in that it will indicate a lot of things about us if we don't win it.

 

[Cydkar]

I'm not saying that the football team should consider this a must win. Obviously, for the team every game should be a must win.

For us fans however, no need to be writing off this season if we lose a close one.

If we lose it will do a lot of harm to the program.

 

[justcynn]

No single game is a must win, but of course it makes it that much tougher if you let a "winnable" game get away. Last year I thought KState was the must win, missed on that but later made up for with a surprise win at Nebbie. This year the surprise wins could be tougher, but I bet the players believe they can compete in every game, and if they can - another surprise win could become an indication of just how special a coaching staff we have right now

 

[CycloneErik]

Coach pointed out how important that first win is. Losing this would be very, very bad for the season outlook.

 

[Aclone]

No, it is a "Will win on the way to a bowl game".

 

[everyyard]

I think if we lose this first game making a bowl game could become increasingly difficult.

save for eddie robinson type games, aren't our first games always "must wins?"

 

[ruxCYtable]

I think if we lose this first game making a bowl game could become increasingly difficult.

With our schedule there is no margin for error. Every winnable game must be won.

A season-opening loss to NIU would be devastating, IMO. I am reminded of two season-opening losses in the late 90's, in which we choked on big leads and lost to Oklahoma St. and Wyoming. Those two losses set the tone for their respective seasons. I still feel Dan McCarney's Cyclones might have gone bowling a year or two earlier than they did if either of those two games had been won and the momentum seized-upon.

 

[EveryYardForISU]

It will be very hard for both the team and the fanbase to recover from a season opening loss to one of the weaker teams on our schedule. I personally would be very disappointed and have a grim outlook on the season. I am really holding my breath for this one, hoping everything goes well and the defense holds its own.

 

[TedKumsher]

No. Until you're 1 loss away from being inellible for a bowl game, there is no must win

Seriously. Doesn't anyone remember last year? Really? Iowa was a "must win" to look at a bowl game. Oops. Wait -- Kansas State is a "must win" if we want to see a bowl game. Oops again. No no -- wait! KANSAS is a "must win" if we want to see a bowl game.

Nebraska? Can't win. No bowl game for us. Ultimate oops.