ISU and Big 12 - SP+, FPI, and Sagarin 2023

[BMWallace]

I wanted to see how some of the rating systems are viewing ISU and the Big 12 over the course of the year. I have compiled some of the weekly rating from SP+, FPI, Sagarin, and Massey.

After week 8, these rankings show a consistent distinction with OU and Texas at the top and KSU as the third team. The middle tier is muddy with ISU, Kansas, OSU, TCU, Tech, and UCF shuffling around from week-to-week. While the bottom tier is being further separated with Baylor, BYU, Cinci, Houston, and WVU struggling in recent weeks.

ISU Weekly Rankings


SP+


FPI


Sagarin

 

[nrg4isu]

TCU, UCF, Texas Tech and OkState ahead of us? I can kinda get behind Oklahoma State because their trend has been very positive lately, but TCU seems to be a complete mess. UCF could be good, but they really haven't really shown it in conference play. And Tech has been a dumpster fire this year. WVU is better than their ranking in these.

 

[khardbored]

Cool info!

Supports what we've been seeing -- after UT and OU (and, to a degree, KSU), the rest of the Big 12 is wide open.

 

[BMWallace]

SP+, FPI, Sagarin, and Massey Composite updated following week 11.

ISU weekly rating


SP+


ESPN's FPI


Sagarin

 

[cyman05]

Interesting to see it evolve into a three tiered over time-

UT, OU and KSU at the top
Houston, Baylor, BYU, Cincy at the bottom
The rest lumped in the middle

 

[stateofmind]

Cool data. How does TT go down in SP+ and KU go up after last week?

 

[besserheimerphat]

Cool data. How does TT go down in SP+ and KU go up after last week?

It starts going into the season based on returning production and preseason polls. We started out in the 70s or 80s because of all the production we lost and our poor record from last year.

As games occur, the preseason stuff is phased out gradually - takes like 8 weeks to reach minimum influence. The in-season ranking is based on play-by-play (SP+) or drive-by-drive (FEI/F+) data. NOT by scores and win/loss. So if you play well but lose against a good team, your rating can increase. Play poorly against a bad team and win, your rating can decrease. Everything is opponent/SOS adjusted. Okie State's run has continued to help us as they continually look like a win over a better team. Even the Iowa loss isn't terrible as they are ranked in the mid-to-high thirties.

It's not intended to be a rating of how well a team has done so far, but a tool for predicting future results. And for that it usually does pretty well. The SP+ guy has a separate rating call Resume SP+ which is intended to predict the CFB poll, which is reactive to prior games.