MONDAY MUSINGS: Season predictions

[awd4cy]

This should be the thing that scares you the most. Is there anything more ISU football than losing at home to a KU team widely regarded to be the worst football team in B12 history?

Exactly. I will never mark it as a guaranteed win. I kinda understand why some want to, but they shouldn't.

 

[SouthJerseyCy]

Way more to do with KU than it does to us. A chance this KU team is the worst in Big 12 history.

Admittedly I haven't followed the Jaybirds offseason, but they did blitz us by 3 TDs last year. Whats changed so much?

 

[justgetcy]

My predictions w/ scores as of Monday 8/17 (with the right to change up to the opening kickoff):

UNI: Win 30-17 (1-0)

Iowa: Win 23-17 (2-0)

@ Toledo: Win 34-27 (3-0)

Kansas: Win 34-17 (4-0)

@ Texas Tech: Loss 27-29 (4-1)

TCU: Loss 24-51 (4-2)

@ Baylor: Loss 20-52 (4-3)

Texas: Win 40-37 2 O.T. (5-3)

@ Oklahoma: Loss 27-49 (5-4)

Oklahoma State: Loss 17-37 (5-5)

@ Kansas State: Win 28-23 (6-5)

@ West Virginia: Loss 30-36 (6-6)

* We play some Big10 team in a bowl game and take a very frustrating loss to go 6-7

Thoughts?

 

[RedDog]

Exactly. I will never mark it as a guaranteed win. I kinda understand why some want to, but they shouldn't.

When I post my predictions, do I need to attach a non-guarantee clause?

 

[norcalcy]

My predictions w/ scores as of Monday 8/17 (with the right to change up to the opening kickoff):

UNI: Win 30-17 (1-0)

Iowa: Win 23-17 (2-0)

@ Toledo: Win 34-27 (3-0)

Kansas: Win 34-17 (4-0)

@ Texas Tech: Loss 27-29 (4-1)

TCU: Loss 24-51 (4-2)

@ Baylor: Loss 20-52 (4-3)

Texas: Win 40-37 2 O.T. (5-3)

@ Oklahoma: Loss 27-49 (5-4)

Oklahoma State: Loss 17-37 (5-5)

@ Kansas State: Win 28-23 (6-5)

@ West Virginia: Loss 30-36 (6-6)

* We play some Big10 team in a bowl game and take a very frustrating loss to go 6-7

Thoughts?

The popular position seems to be 4-8 to 6-6. I think it's either really bad (2-10/3-9) or really good by ISU standards (7-5/8-4). If the rosy scenario occurs, I'm not sure how we get there, probably with a frustrating loss and a another "out of nowhere" win or two.

 

[Cyclophile1]

Based on my probability distribution from above, Chris Williams, your scenario has a .2% chance of happening. But a 27.56% chance of going 5-7.

I ran a 5000 simulation Monte Carlo analysis of the season using these win % by game:

UNI	IOWA	atToledo	KU	atTech	TCU	at Baylor	TEXas	atOU	OSU	atKSU	atWVU
90%	55%	75%	65%	45%	5%	5%	40%	2%	30%	45%	40%

It produced the following aggregate likelihoods,

# of Wins	Likelihood
1	0.44%
2	3.46%
3	10.76%
4	22.46%
5	26.43%
6	21.88%
7	10.44%
8	3.36%
9	0.66%
10	0.10%
11	0.00%
12	0.00%

which come out to a 4.99 Win and 7.01 Loss.

It would be cool to have a bunch of us pool our win %s by game and run that.

 

[SerenityNow]

I, too, am picking 5-7.

However, if we lose to UNI, I reserve the right to change it to 0-12.

 

[SouthTulsaPoke]

I dunno, Chris, it looks like you're visibly trying NOT to drink the Koolaid in those first five games. :yes:

All I'll say about Toledo is, I'd like to know how good their offensive line will be, having lost all five starters. Well, that versus how good our D-Line will be. If the ISU pass rush/run defense is improved, it could change the complexion of the game quickly.

Of course, Toledo isn't the only program we face with questions on the OL. Texas, WVU and OSU all had problems last year, and pass protection/run blocking could be the Cowboy's Achilles' heel.

Of course, the same applies to us. Dang, I hope those guys stay healthy!

Our offensive line problems began when our RG (Crabtree) went down against you guys. You could feel the gas go out of our offense, and you guys started hanging around with us. When Crabtree came back, and Rudolph became QB1, we looked like a new team: competitive in the rain against Baylor, beating OU in Norman, and running roughshod over a Washington Husky defense with three All-Americans.

This year, we have UAB transfer Salako at LT. Our line is experienced and bigger. We got a new OL coach from the Buffalo Bills, and Gundy raves about the improvement he has brought. Reports out of Fall Camp are saying that the line is much improved, with six quality players. We're a bit thin after those six, but outside observers are saying they will look better than the line that took down the Sooners and the Huskies.

 

[bosco]

Our offensive line problems began when our RG (Crabtree) went down against you guys. You could feel the gas go out of our offense, and you guys started hanging around with us. When Crabtree came back, and Rudolph became QB1, we looked like a new team: competitive in the rain against Baylor, beating OU in Norman, and running roughshod over a Washington Husky defense with three All-Americans.

This year, we have UAB transfer Salako at LT. Our line is experienced and bigger. We got a new OL coach from the Buffalo Bills, and Gundy raves about the improvement he has brought. Reports out of Fall Camp are saying that the line is much improved, with six quality players. We're a bit thin after those six, but outside observers are saying they will look better than the line that took down the Sooners and the Huskies.

I hope Gundy isn't talking about having a winning culture, because if he is then we are boned for sure.

 

[SouthTulsaPoke]

LOL...no mention of a winning culture, but the guy has been one of the lowest key, don't talk good about the team to the press guys, every fall camp, for four years.

This year, he's just short of giddy about how good he thinks we'll be. It's actually a little off-putting, like pod people switched our coach.

Story from Daily Oklahoman

 

[thrillcat]

Five wins would match the last two years....

Really? ****. Why has this not been mentioned before?

 

[dualthreat]

I'd be curious to know if this is Chris's actual opinion or just his published opinion. He has a reputation to uphold unlike any of us. 5-7 is a nice middle ground like he alluded to in the opening of the article.

 

[Wesley]

Really? ****. Why has this not been mentioned before?

It would show major improvement.

 

[Dandy]

Five wins would match the last two years....

Math!

 

[TruClone]

I predict I will be at every home game, enjoy the day of tailgating and cheer on our Cyclones.

 

[RedDog]

LOL...no mention of a winning culture, but the guy has been one of the lowest key, don't talk good about the team to the press guys, every fall camp, for four years.

This year, he's just short of giddy about how good he thinks we'll be. It's actually a little off-putting, like pod people switched our coach.

Story from Daily Oklahoman

That was after your spring game, so I assume he's even more giddy this fall. I'm lowering my win percentage prediction against OSU.

 

[go1970cy]

I predict we lose to UNI and the season goes down from there. Next year we are coached by P J Fleck.

 

[dualthreat]

I predict I will be at every home game, enjoy the day of tailgating and cheer on our Cyclones.

Amen!

I predict we lose to UNI and the season goes down from there. Next year we are coached by P J Fleck.

I really hope this doesn't happen. But, if winning 6 or 7 games is out of the question, I'd almost rather the season totally tank. I don't want to get caught in some sort of limbo with 5 wins; retain Rhoads and tank the following year. Rip the bandaid off.

 

[Palmer]

We will be 4-0 going into the Texas Tech game. That is far my crystal ball will take me....so everyone is on their own after that.

 

[CascadeClone]

This should be the thing that scares you the most. Is there anything more ISU football than losing at home to a KU team widely regarded to be the worst football team in B12 history?

To answer your question: losing to Kansas in November when the conference title is on the line.

You gotta put the sweet taste of victory within grasp before you receive the nut shot.



That said, no way they lose to KU. They will be turrible, especially early on.