Peace Tree is for sale

frackincygy

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BillBrasky4Cy

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That industry has to be giving the people involved major levels of anxiety right now. I hope they’ve made their nut and can get out while the getting is still good.

I said it several years ago and I was absolutely mocked by it by all of the beer geeks on here nut the number of small breweries that popped up over the last 10 years simply isn't sustainable. Drinking habits change and craft beer drinkers in particular are not brand loyal at all. Seltzers and Ready to Drink cocktails are absolutely crushing the beer market right now. Couple that with the fact that young drinkers consume alcohol much differently than we do/did and the craft beer segment is losing market share fast.
 

Al_4_State

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I said it several years ago and I was absolutely mocked by it by all of the beer geeks on here nut the number of small breweries that popped up over the last 10 years simply isn't sustainable. Drinking habits change and craft beer drinkers in particular are not brand loyal at all. Seltzers and Ready to Drink cocktails are absolutely crushing the beer market right now. Couple that with the fact that young drinkers consume alcohol much differently than we do/did and the craft beer segment is losing market share fast.
I've said for a long time that the most sustainable brewery model is the neighborhood taproom model.

Peace Tree is caught right in that spot of being a production/distribution brewery that isn't on the level of their higher end competitors in the state namely TG, Singlespeed, Big Grove, and Backpocket.

I think all of those 4 places are going to be fine. I think smaller breweries with good reputations and loyal customer bases, and very limited distribution (Alluvial, 515, Pulpit Rock) are going to be fine. The people who are scaling up production without being beer geek havens (Peace Tree, Keg Creek types) are in a tough spot. They either have to reel it in and just be a small brewery, or develop a following on the level of a TG/BG, which seems almost impossible in this current climate.
 

JP4CY

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I've said for a long time that the most sustainable brewery model is the neighborhood taproom model.

Peace Tree is caught right in that spot of being a production/distribution brewery that isn't on the level of their higher end competitors in the state namely TG, Singlespeed, Big Grove, and Backpocket.

I think all of those 4 places are going to be fine. I think smaller breweries with good reputations and loyal customer bases, and very limited distribution (Alluvial, 515, Pulpit Rock) are going to be fine. The people who are scaling up production without being beer geek havens (Peace Tree, Keg Creek types) are in a tough spot. They either have to reel it in and just be a small brewery, or develop a following on the level of a TG/BG, which seems almost impossible in this current climate.
Yeah I feel like 5k-10k populated towns are a nice model. I've stopped at Franklin in Manchester and they have some decent stuff and it felt "neighborhoody."
 

Frak

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Yeah I feel like 5k-10k populated towns are a nice model. I've stopped at Franklin in Manchester and they have some decent stuff and it felt "neighborhoody."
Even smaller towns than that can work. I've seen a lot of people in small town western Iowa drinking craft beers that I NEVER would have thought would do anything other than the big domestics. But you need a brewer that likes to try new fun things and then they need to have an easy drinking lager or pilsner that the Busch Lite crowd can stomach. Of course, when you are bottling and distributing like Peace Tree, that's a whole different ballgame.
 
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CascadeClone

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What's something like this go for.
Probably about 3x free cash flow. Unless the FCF is really low, then it might be just net book value of the assets. Google guesses their revenue is between 1-5m annual, that's about all I can get for financials. So wild ass guess... $1M. Maybe $500k to $2M as a range. That assumes no significant debt.

Sounds to me like it is making money, but she is just looking to do something else. If someone wants to buy the operations, recipes, and branding... and pour in $10M for production, marketing, and distribution... maybe they could make it much much bigger.
 

cycloneworld

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It is a REALLY saturated market and you need a good niche/following. You can't just be another beer anymore or you'll get run over by places like Big Grove (their DSM location has to print money because of their patio/setup/food) or Toppling Goliath (cult following).

Peace Tree was an early leader in the craft beer movement but they've been passed by many, many others. I wouldn't be investing without a plan to change their current business model.
 
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CloniesForLife

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Two of the long time breweries up here in the cities are closing. I think one is more by choice than anything but I do think the market was due for a correction. I think most cities are pretty saturated now so if you're going to open one in a city then you better have something unique or have damn good beer. I agree that the suburbs or mid-sized towns are where you are going to see new ones. The ones I go to 15 - 30 minutes outside the cities are usually very busy since they're the only option in the area.
 

Al_4_State

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Two of the long time breweries up here in the cities are closing. I think one is more by choice than anything but I do think the market was due for a correction. I think most cities are pretty saturated now so if you're going to open one in a city then you better have something unique or have damn good beer. I agree that the suburbs or mid-sized towns are where you are going to see new ones. The ones I go to 15 - 30 minutes outside the cities are usually very busy since they're the only option in the area.
Which ones?
 

CascadeClone

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It is a REALLY saturated market and you need a good niche/following. You can't just be another beer anymore or you'll get run over by places like Big Grove (their DSM location has to print money because of their patio/setup/food) or Toppling Goliath (cult following).

Peace Tree was an early leader in the craft beer movement but they've been passed by many, many others. I wouldn't be investing without a plan to change their current business model.
Big Grove is almost going with the old UK model where the brewer owns the pub. They are doing another giant place in CR as well, and it's going to be packed and that's a great way to move quantity of product and keep all the margin in house. Assuming you can run both businesses well.