Y
Some Pac-12 fans are criticizing the analysis so I'm not sure if it's accurate, but yeah if that is accurate then the B12 will be able to add any Pac-12 school that it wants.
But given how wide the revenue gap is - and the fact that it's caused by the Pac-12 having lower-value schools - the Big 12 might be wise to reconsider who it wants to add. Would the best move be to take just two of the four corner schools plus Oregon and Washington? The two highest value in TV money are likely Arizona State and Utah. (That might explain the reports that Arizona and Colorado are more ready to jump now than are ASU and UU.) But maybe Arizona State and Colorado is a better play to get the Big 12 into more states. Then Wazzu, Oregon State, Stanford, Cal, Arizona, and Utah can rebuild a Pac-10 with Boise State, San Diego State, UNLV, and SMU. Good luck.
What are they disagreeing with?
-What we know though is that with OUT the Big 12 was solidly 3rd, higher than the Pac12. So if the conferences had roughly the same departure hit in terms of %, one would expect the Big 12 to remain ahead.
-Also, these deals tend to be front loaded in value from the conference's perspective. So the conference gets overpaid at first, then underpaid on the backend (assuming rights keep escalating, which will eventually stop). If the PAC is unwilling to sign a long GOR because of the uncertainty, the jump from now is going to be lower than we typically see.
-One counter may be that the Pac12 (with USC/UCLA) was on the backend of a longer deal, so they could have been expecting a bigger jump than the Big 12, to narrow that original gap. But the Big 12 jump in 2025 should have about the same given ratings/performance. So not much change in positioning.
Have the PAC 12 fans seen their ratings and performance? Now without AT LEAST USC and UCLA? A PAC without CA. What network wants to bet on that?
The PAC needs to be much less PAC in order to maximize valuation. Which is why the top going to the Big 12 is a higher valuation than the top of the Big 12 going to the PAC.
I mean, the west coast won't even watch PAC schools, and the apathy is only going to get worse as a west coast conference that functionally doesn't have CA, but they're going to watch some 2nd tier Texas schools and Midwest programs? There is no way around that even with USC/UCLA was trending downwards. And the fundamentals causing that likely to only get worse.
