Realignment Megathread (All The Moves)

[WhoISthis]

20 years is my go-to window for such things. It certainly isn’t perfect, but it isn’t entirely arbitrary or meant to make a program look accomplished.

Typically you get a coaching change (or two). It is often enough time to soften the effects of a particularly good (or bad) recruiting class (or two).

The Nebraska comparison is off for a host of reasons. The most obvious is that until last week there weren’t any structural changes affecting Cal that landed in that window. They’ve had the same advantages/disadvantages as always.

I couldn’t disagree more on your statement that “What matters is where things stand today” in the sense you seem to mean it. It is an important factor in predicting results on a horizon of maybe 3-4 years for football and 1-2 for basketball. Hopefully it is self-evidently a near non-factor in the bigger picture of evaluating the value of a school’s athletic department.

I’m not worried about Cal’s ability to compete, I’m worried whether anyone, even on the west coast, would care much if they did. Cal’s past ability to compete doesn’t really speak it that.

If anything, the better I hear their past 20 years have been, the more I think it’s a fool’s errand to grab the name. They are a name we all like, but apparently apathetic even with success. And now you’re taking some of their closest peer groups away and putting them in the new middle class? The “care” arrow is not up.

 

[12191987]

I believe that's a far too narrow focus. There's much more than simple won-loss records. What are the facilities and other resources? fan base? alumni numbers? level of commitment to the athletic program? academics? As far as that goes, when was our last conference championship?

If you’re talking about overall valuation I’d throw in location as a major factor. If you’re looking at odds of a soft landing spot I’d include timing/luck.

I’d have taken Cal’s position right now over ISU’s in the immediate aftermath of OU/UT leaving in a heartbeat (without the benefit of hindsight). Now, I’m cautiously optimistic.

If you blew the whole thing up and drafted for two 24-team super-conferences right now? Hard to imagine a draft that doesn’t overvalue measurables and potential. I don’t think there is a question about which school that favors. Let’s just be glad it doesn’t appear to be how things are likely to play out.

 

[12191987]

I’m not worried about Cal’s ability to compete, I’m worried whether anyone, even on the west coast, would care much if they did. Cal’s past ability to compete doesn’t really speak it that.

If anything, the better I hear their past 20 years have been, the more I think it’s a fool’s errand to grab the name. They are a name we all like, but apparently apathetic even with success. And now you’re taking some of their closest peer groups away and putting them in the new middle class? The “care” arrow is not up.

ISU is a bit of an outlier nationally when it comes to fan support when the teams are terrible (at least over the last 20 years or so).

I’d argue your LA/Bay Area schools are below average, but not necessarily outliers. Cal did average >64K fans a game at home during that PAC-10 title run.

Now, if taking them was on the table, for me it’d depend on what the overall landscape looked like for the Big 12. You’re right, under some (likely) conditions they could wither. Under some they could thrive. They’ve got a lot of advantages I’d kill for as an ISU fan.

 

[Gonzo]

Conference realignment: Phil Knight resorts to cold calling for Oregon as Pac-12, Big 12, ACC seek lifelines

Resolution may come sooner than later with some well-known programs unfortunately being left out in the cold

www.cbssports.com

This is such an overreaction. It's as if Dodd wrote this 2 hours after the USC/UCLA announcement.

"Stamford"? Really DD?

 

[WhoISthis]

ISU is a bit of an outlier nationally when it comes to fan support when the teams are terrible (at least over the last 20 years or so).

I’d argue your LA/Bay Area schools are below average, but not necessarily outliers.

Now, if taking them was on the table, for me it’d depend on what the overall landscape looked like for the Big 12. You’re right, under some (likely) conditions they could wither. Under some they could thrive. They’ve got a lot of advantages I’d kill for as an ISU fan.

This is exemplary of why the Pac has been declining and is dead imo. The west coast has fallen so far behind they can’t see it.

No, you are an outlier. The Pac is mostly an outlier. Nowhere else would such names be so irrelevant. They need to be exported to Midwest and south to have any chance. Optimally the BIG to capitalize on traditional relationships, but the Big 12 would still result in valuation bump

The perception of advantages are rooted in nostalgia for past eras. If nothing else, the era in which PAC was top billing in CA, but also when apathy wasn’t strong, and growing.

These advantages you kill for, in a P5 setup mind you, yet a falling knife? Not great indications for the new P2 era. To survive outside the P2 will take either the model ISU has, or the UCF type model. Cal has never been either, and the institution and Bay Area isn’t conducive for that to change.

Moreover, it’s not ISU or Cal. It’s Cal or no Cal. TV may be in favor of the latter.

Cal has agency right now. That changes if one more school leaves PAC. If they want to remove risk they are left behind, especially given Stanford flight risk, Cal should be begging and the first to jump. They need to uncouple from OSU and WSU. They may not want Big 12, but it removes the chance they’ll be playing with Boise and a Cal St system school for less.

 

[JM4CY]

Conference realignment: Phil Knight resorts to cold calling for Oregon as Pac-12, Big 12, ACC seek lifelines

Resolution may come sooner than later with some well-known programs unfortunately being left out in the cold

www.cbssports.com

This is such an overreaction. It's as if Dodd wrote this 2 hours after the USC/UCLA announcement.

So we’re all supposed to feel bad for Oregon and their billionaire donor? Cry me a ******* river.

 

[Acylum]

This is exemplary of why the Pac has been declining and is dead imo. The west coast has fallen so far behind they can’t see it.

No, you are an outlier. The Pac is mostly an outlier. Nowhere else would such names be so irrelevant. The need to be exported to Midwest and south to have any chance.

The perception of advantages are rooted in nostalgia for past eras. If nothing else, the era in which PAC was top billing in CA, but also when apathy wasn’t strong, and growing.

These advantages you kill for, in a P5 setup mind you, yet a falling knife? Not great indications for the new P2 era. To survive outside the P2 will take either the model ISU has, or the UCF type model. Cal has never been either, and the institution and Bay Area isn’t conducive for that to change.

Moreover, it’s not ISU or Cal. It’s Cal or no Cal. TV may be in favor of the latter.

Cal has agency right now. That changes if one more school leaves PAC. If they want to remove risk they are left behind, especially given Stanford flight risk, Cal should be begging and the first to jump. They need to uncouple from OSU and WSU. They may not want Big 12, but it removes the chance they’ll be playing with Boise and a Cal St system school for less.

You’re assuming the Cal administration and fans even care. I’m not convinced they do. I think it’s even money whether Cal and Stanford are playing CFB in five years.

 

[2speedy1]

Only on CF can you learn about the civil war and genealogy while checking in on realignment BS.

Never change. All of you!!!

I mean if we don't let ourselves get a little side tracked during all of this sometimes, we would go crazy..if we aren't already.

 

[Cyforce]

You’re assuming the Cal administration and fans even care. I’m not convinced they do. I think it’s even money whether Cal and Stanford are playing CFB in five years.

I think Stanford goes independent if the conference breaks up. I agree Cal could drop football. Only way I see both in a new conference is if they want to join the ACC which fits their academic standards but travel would suck.

 

[2speedy1]

Came across this update via youtube. Unknown how accurate.

The guy goes by Mhver3 and other BS twitter posters so, I would take what he says as mostly bs. He might have some truth sprinkled in here and there, but most of it is just straight up guessing.

 

[acgclone]

The guy goes by Mhver3 and other BS twitter posters so, I would take what he says as mostly bs. He might have some truth sprinkled in here and there, but most of it is just straight up guessing.

He did tweet about USC/UCLA to the B1G back in April.

 

[cyatheart]

You’re not necessarily wrong about Cal.

Summary of Cal’s last 20 football seasons:

1 x Conference Championship
4 x Top 25 final national rankings
1 x Top 10 final national ranking (#9)

7-4 record in bowl games

2 x 10 win seasons
1 x 9 win season
5 x 8 win seasons

128-115 overall record

You don’t want to compare this to ISU.

Summary of Cal’s last 20 basketball seasons:

8 x NCAA tournament berths (4 wins total)
4 x NIT tournament berths (4 wins total)

This compares a bit more favorably.

None of this matters though. Nobody watches it.

 

[WhoISthis]

You’re assuming the Cal administration and fans even care. I’m not convinced they do. I think it’s even money whether Cal and Stanford are playing CFB in five years.

If they don't care, they should just jump to Big 12 so they make certain they can pay off all that debt they're carrying. Better do that, then doing the same while playing Boise and SDSU.

I'm likely nuts, but I still think they end up in the BIG. I hope they do, it brings down the per school revenue little, but more importantly gives the P2 another mouth to feed. Better to have that, then another one competing for the P2 scraps. Exclusivity on P2 scraps is important, and the numbers to get leftovers into a single conference, is already tight. If Cal, Stanford, OSU, WSU are out, and you remove Wake, BC, and Cuse the numbers work a lot better. 22 in Big 12 is probably best. I don't think it works out that way, but Cal and Stanford would be the best for ISU in terms of the BIG getting to 20+ (ND and ACC)

If they are not able to go BIG, I am for the Big 12 getting Cal and Stanford, but most think they would not join. Getting them would be good for perception, and that's what matters to the 3rd conference, more than incremental differences in revenue.

 

[Cyforce]

The guy goes by Mhver3 and other BS twitter posters so, I would take what he says as mostly bs. He might have some truth sprinkled in here and there, but most of it is just straight up guessing.

So all of his sources are himself?

 

[JM4CY]

You’re not necessarily wrong about Cal.

Summary of Cal’s last 20 football seasons:

1 x Conference Championship
4 x Top 25 final national rankings
1 x Top 10 final national ranking (#9)

7-4 record in bowl games

2 x 10 win seasons
1 x 9 win season
5 x 8 win seasons

128-115 overall record

You don’t want to compare this to ISU.

Summary of Cal’s last 20 basketball seasons:

8 x NCAA tournament berths (4 wins total)
4 x NIT tournament berths (4 wins total)

This compares a bit more favorably.

Lol if “you don’t want to compare this to ISU”

If you think you need to educate us on how horsesh!t the football team was pre-campbell, you are much mistaken.

 

[simply1]

He did tweet about USC/UCLA to the B1G back in April.

Now list the ones that were wrong

 

[jbhtexas]

I've seen rumors for every possible team talking with every other conference in the past week, definitely feel like some of these "journalists" are taking this opportunity to write some click bait to generate clicks while the CFB world is in chaos.
Not much we can do but wait and see which rumors were true

I haven't dredged every last media outlet on the planet, but I haven't seen reports of the other Big 12 teams talking with other conferences.

This OkSU story has been around for several days now. Interesting that there have been no official denials or "We are entrenched" statements from the conference.

 

[Cyforce]

I haven't dredged every last media outlet on the planet, but I haven't seen reports of the other Big 12 teams talking with other conferences.

This OkSU story has been around for several days now. Interesting that there have been no official denials or "We are entrenched" statements from the conference.

I think most aren't surprised Okie St would of reached out. The suprise would be the SEC being receptive.

 

[CloneJD]

I haven't dredged every last media outlet on the planet, but I haven't seen reports of the other Big 12 teams talking with other conferences.

This OkSU story has been around for several days now. Interesting that there have been no official denials or "We are entrenched" statements from the conference.

Lol, we don’t need official statements on every internet rumor out there.

 

[JM4CY]

I haven't dredged every last media outlet on the planet, but I haven't seen reports of the other Big 12 teams talking with other conferences.

This OkSU story has been around for several days now. Interesting that there have been no official denials or "We are entrenched" statements from the conference.

Of course they did, why not? They aren’t going anywhere.