Realignment Megathread (All The Moves)

HFCS

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Aug 13, 2010
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I mean, if Cal and/or Stanford actually wanted into the Big 12, we’d be fools not to take them. But it’s a nonstarter because we already know they’re not interested. First the Big 12 simply doesn’t have the academic profile. Second, they’d have to drop their discrimination against religious-affiliated universities, because Baylor (unfortunately), TCU, and BYU aren’t going anywhere - and if it wasn’t for that discrimination BYU would have been in the PAC decades ago.

I guess when we talk Big 12 expansion, we exclude Stanford and Cal because we already know they’re not coming, even if the move is in their best interest. They’re the types to cut off their nose just to spite their face.

I'd stop short of calling it "discrimination" but that choice they've always made is clearly gone now since they were already having serious discussions with SMU.

IMHO that moment it broke they were talking with SMU is when they were pretty much doomed and nothing like what they had been.
 

jdoggivjc

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Sep 27, 2006
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My take on this whole thing:

Colorado regrets jumping to the Pac a decade + ago and is grateful they could get back to the Big XII.

Arizona has seen the writing on the wall with the PAC for a long time now and was looking for the reason/means to jump to the Big XII. With the PAC unable to get any reasonable media deal done and with Colorado already jumping, they have it.

Oregon probably doesn’t necessarily want to move to the Big XII, but they realize a B1G invite isn’t coming and they see the writing on the wall with the PAC’s inability to get a media deal done. At this point the XII is the only reasonable option left.

Washington is a lot like Oregon but even less enthusiastic about the XII - but realizes UO is their dance partner much like UT is OU’s.

Utah became overly loyal to the PAC when they joined, and took the PAC’s snobbish attitude towards the XII. Now with the XII killing the PAC and their natural place in the XII being filled by BYU, all they really have left is their pride and their loyalty to a dying conference.

ASU I honestly have no idea what the hell they’re thinking. Arizona and ASU should be a package deal, yet they don’t see the writing on the wall like the other schools do. As a result they’re very much at risk of being left on the outside looking in.

OSU and WSU simply are looking for the same kind of miracle survival that the XII has experienced the last 15 years.

Cal and Stanford are in their own little world thinking their own things.
 

jdoggivjc

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I'd stop short of calling it "discrimination" but that choice they've always made is clearly gone now since they were already having serious discussions with SMU.

IMHO that moment it broke they were talking with SMU is when they were pretty much doomed and nothing like what they had been.

I only used “discrimination” for a lack of a better word choice in that moment. I really didn’t like the use of that word there either.
 

HFCS

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I only used “discrimination” for a lack of a better word choice in that moment. I really didn’t like the use of that word there either.

But yeah, I love every time I hear them considering SMU.

Not only is it hilarious to see them bring in a religious school...it also means they made a massive mistake not adding Houston years ago or even BYU.
 
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HFCS

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Aug 13, 2010
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Cal-Berkeley: that’s all that needs to be said. Culture and academics matter to them. It just does wrong or right. Part of the elite of the elite public institutions. Snootier than the others like UM as well.

The part of the culture that doesn't fit is zero sports fans. We don't need to get political about it, the stands are just empty.

USC has fans at games even when they are average, I see it around town. Colorado will have fans at games if they get good again. UCLA, SDSU, Stanford and Cal just flat out don't have sports fans anymore if they ever did.
 

Cloneon

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Oct 29, 2015
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And I don’t think Cal and/or Stanford would ever consider joining the B12. Heck, Cal is probably more likely to go D-3 than move to the B12.

Not that I have any inside info, I don’t, but it just seems to me neither of those schools would ever be interested.
Someone please convince me why Stanford or Cal are even mentioned. Having lived in the Bay area for a decade plus, I can honestly say they barely have a heartbeat in terms of media popularity. I don't care about the metro area because fans don't care. No way the media gobbles them up. Hence I'd be utterly shocked if the B12 was in play. Also, people are throwing ideas around with little to no fiscal justification.
 
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jcyclonee

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Apr 12, 2006
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I am not sure at all if adding 4 PAC teams makes sense. 2 might be the limit. In terms of value to ESPN/Fox (which is what matters), that one late game is decent. But that's it. The rest is meh and probably dilutive.

Adding 2 teams gives 9 more conference games and 4-5 noncons. If that is CU and AZ, you are basically getting a decent (not great) late game per week. That's probably enough to float 2 teams - my math says its ~6% lower than 31.7 but probably close enough to stay same.

Adding 4 teams gives 18 more conference games and 8-10 noncons. You get the same decent (not great) late game, but there isn't really a second spot for another decent (not great) late game. So now the value doesn't increase in proportion and it becomes more dilutive. My math shows this ~17% lower, and I don't think the TV folks would just eat that.

The caveat to this is Oregon. Oregon would bring more decent games in the regular season (since ranked often and branding), as well as probably a great noncon. My math with them shows the value goes UP about 10% over the current deal with 2 teams, and breakeven if adding 4 teams.

TLDR; I think the two most likely outcomes are:
1) Colorado and Arizona only
OR
2) Colorado, Oregon, Arizona, and #4

For the 4th team ASU is my guess. UW will wait for B1G. Utah is being a-holes, plus a 2nd team from Arizona (pop 7.5M) makes a lot more sense than a 2nd team from Utah (pop 3M)).
Coach Prime is a wild card in the media value. Just having him there should increase CO's media value for at least 2 years even if they are bad. Please note that I am probably wrong about this.
 
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