Realignment Megathread (All The Moves)
- Thread starter ISUcyclones11
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Well that wont improve next year with the west coast. This shiy is so stupid.
I understand schools have to basically find ways to spend extra cash for a rough net neutral, but how the **** does it take $50 million to run the league for one year?
Can’t read the argument so going to assume they’re either incompetent or have some capital development expenditures. Based on the league, going to expect incompetence.
Nah it’s from the selling of part of the big ten rights to fox and paying for the media negotiations. It’s expected and is expected to shift next year. Each school still got their 60mil and the conference still has over $250 mil in the bank. Next year is when the new media deal kicks in.
The model that made college sports what they are was regional conferences with the accompanying rivalries with the conferences then being represented in bowl games and the NCAA tournament and other championships. I'm glad ISU is in a stable conference in which we can be competitive, but everything being equal, I'd rather be playing our old Big 8 rivals rather than UCF and BYU. The current system is designed by greed. It's yet to be seen whether such a system is sustainable long term.
i agree it looks like a bookkeeping thing. The conference is as strong as ever and the schools are being paid more than ever. The threat is in the future with the lawsuits and revenue sharing.
I agree with a lot of this, but it has fatal flaw. Our recruiting territory was much smaller then too. I don’t think we would be near as successful in any sports pulling only from mostly the Midwest for recruits.
When we play games in Ohio, Florida, Texas, Arizona, etc… it allows us better footing to recruit those states.
The article states that at the end of the deal, each school will be getting between $80 to $100 million from the media rights. Maryland and Rutgers are still not getting full shares but are close, USC and UCLA are coming on board as full members and no one has a clue how long it will be for Oregon and Washington to get their full share if ever.
And that's the problem the fanfic realignment proposals with strict geographical bases. Any idea that starts with most or all of the old Big 8 and goes from there would put ISU in a terrible recruiting position.
The motivation is ESPN not wanting to pay premium $$$ (if anything at all) for the ACC once Virginia and UNC are no longer in the equation. Granted, I don't think this is likely at all as I see all four of UVA, UNC, Clemson, and FSU in either the Big 10 or SEC if they want them... just saying.
I doubt it is, the bubble bursts on damn near everything in time. We shall see.
The question that no one seems to know the answer to is "how big is the SEC and B10 going to be?" Both are at 18 schools this coming year, and giving out roughly $60 million per school. That number is going to go up to between $80 to $100 per school by the end of the contract in 2027. Its looking more and more like teams will be leaving the ACC, so say they take 4 of those school, throw in ND and one other school that are only at 42 schools total. There would be no schools in either league between Lincoln to the West Coast.
Football is a very regional game, and it's going to ask a lot to stay at 42 teams and become an NFL light version. I know the league only has 32 teams, but they are spread out a little better. So do the networks want 60 teams, 6 ten team divisions or 64 teams of 8 team leagues. ESPN and FOX would be leaving a lot of quality programs out if they stay around the 40 number.
Football is a very regional game, and it's going to ask a lot to stay at 42 teams and become an NFL light version. I know the league only has 32 teams, but they are spread out a little better. So do the networks want 60 teams, 6 ten team divisions or 64 teams of 8 team leagues. ESPN and FOX would be leaving a lot of quality programs out if they stay around the 40 number.
Ultimately its going to end up one of two ways, imho.
1. Essentually 2 divisions, one the big brand super league of appx 24 teams pulled from SEC and B1G (plus like FSU and Clemson, maybe Miami). The other would be the 50ish other former P5 schools. 2nd group would be less money and prob much different rules on NIL etc.
2. More or less status quo, but with the ACC falling apart, the B1G and SEC taking a few teams and most of the rest going to Big12. P2 would be about same as they are now and Big12 would be the coast to coast "other guys". Have to hope Big12 can use bball to keep the money gap from getting too wide. And that the system isnt totally gamed in P2 favor so that Big12 isnt screwed. On the last point i am not optimistic based on how its starting.
I still think #1 most likely since thats what tv money wants.
Maybe in 20 years football is fading and bball is ascendant, and then the Big12 is on top. But i wont care then, i will be dead or close to it.
1. Essentually 2 divisions, one the big brand super league of appx 24 teams pulled from SEC and B1G (plus like FSU and Clemson, maybe Miami). The other would be the 50ish other former P5 schools. 2nd group would be less money and prob much different rules on NIL etc.
2. More or less status quo, but with the ACC falling apart, the B1G and SEC taking a few teams and most of the rest going to Big12. P2 would be about same as they are now and Big12 would be the coast to coast "other guys". Have to hope Big12 can use bball to keep the money gap from getting too wide. And that the system isnt totally gamed in P2 favor so that Big12 isnt screwed. On the last point i am not optimistic based on how its starting.
I still think #1 most likely since thats what tv money wants.
Maybe in 20 years football is fading and bball is ascendant, and then the Big12 is on top. But i wont care then, i will be dead or close to it.
I think we're heading towards #2.
The Big 10 and SEC will only add a few more ACC schools and Notre Dame and the rest of the ACC will join up with the Big 12. There will be a playoff comprised of those 3 conferences/groupings/divisions (I think the conference model as we knew it is basically dead). The Big 12/ACC conference will have similar on paper access, but will receive less money. The Big 10 and SEC will also adopt uneven revenue sharing.
Like always, the biggest brands will have a decided advantage financially, but we'll retain a place in the ecosystem with a chance (on paper) of always playing our way into the mix.
It gives the big brands the money and exposure they crave, and keeps the smaller brands invested in the total product with minimal disenfranchisement.
You could be right.
My guess is #1, mostly because I think that is what the big money wants. But also because for #2, you almost need some level of cooperation among the conferences wrt all the changes that are happening (NIL, settlement, collective bargaining, et al). And it's all so "every many for himself" that I can't imagine the B1G or SEC agreeing to anything that helps the other, and certainly not anything that helps the Big12. Look at what they did on the CFP payouts, e.g.
Honestly I am not sure which would be better for ISU, or which I'd prefer. Just depends how it all shakes out I suppose.
The Big 12 gets less of the playoff cut, but is still allowed in. That would continue.
My preference is something like #1, but with the top cut being whittled down to 16-18 schools. Iowa wouldn't make that cut, and Nebraska might not either. That would allow the remaining 50+ former P5 schools to reorganize geographically.
You would see the top division look like this:
OSU
Michigan
Penn State
Notre Dame
USC
Oregon
Texas
Oklahoma
Florida
Bama
Georgia
FSU
Clemson
Tennessee
Aggy
LSU
Miami
Auburn
Then everyone else is left in another division that can organize along geographical and historical lines. Maybe have the remaining 54 teams of the former P5 organize into 6 9 team divisions. Our division would be something like this:
ISU
Iowa
Kansas
Kansas State
Nebraska
Mizzou
Minnesota
Wisconsin
Okie State
I would prefer this to basically any arrangement ISU's ever been a part of.
Honestly, me too. Compete with your actual peers, not the super-mega schools. But still big enough that people nationwide care. I'd miss the occasional App St over Michigan, or Boise over OU, but with the way things are changing those will become more rare I suppose.
I'd add Washington for sure, and one of Nubs or UCLA to make it 20 teams. Probably UCLA, just to have 4 teams on the west coast. They'd have 5 divisions of 4, take the 5 winners and 3 wildcards and have a huge playoff.
There's your NFL-lite, right there. That's a TV exec's wettest dream.
11 game regular season (3 in your div, plus 2/4 of the other 4 divs). Plus 1 or 2 games out of league vs left behinds (e.g. Clemson vs SCar, Wash vs Wazzu, etc).
So you have 8 to 10 games a week, which matches your supply of prime networks and timeslots to maximize revenue. Make about $3B on the games, give each school $100M, and net a cool $1B every year.
Don't give me "someone has to lose" arguments. Which one of those fanbases and AD's is going to say "this is too hard for us, let's drop out and win games and only make $25M annual" - I will hang up and listen.
The argument "fans of other schools won't watch and ratings will be less than projected" - now that I won't argue. But I think the TV execs don't believe it and/or think its manageable or will change in their favor over time.
