No, we don;t. I'm sorry but I hate that argument in sports.
Because you then presume the rest of the game goes EXACTLY the same way other than those 4 passes. Iowa could say, well, if you got those 4 passes, then we get OUR 4 passes or blocks to make a bigger run, etc.
Its a pointless argument and one that teams that lose games make. Its like, if I told my crush in 2019 I liked her in 2019 instead of screwing around, does she end up with me instead of some other guy she's currently with? Maybe, but maybe something happens and we don't end up together anyways. Or maybe we do.
My point is - you simply can't say I'm going to change 4 things and then expect that the rest of the game goes the same way. Things only went the way they did because those catches WEREN'T made. If they had been made, we have no idea what would have happened. Maybe we win. Maybe Iowa gets a pick six on the next play and they score 27 instead of 13. Its impossible to say.