WrestleStat Rankings - Week 5 2018-2019

[Andegre]

As expected, there's quite a bit of movement in this weeks rankings after the CKLV tournament last weekend.

Looking through these, there are a couple confusing movements, but keep in mind that the low number of match results for some wrestlers will skew their ranking. Once a wrestler gets to the "equilibrium" match count [14], their ranking should become more accurate.

I'll provide an example where it's "tough" for the algorithm....Gable Steveson has propelled to #1 at 285 after an impressive start to his college career. He is currently 13 - 0 (12 - 0 vs D1) so he is ALMOST at his equilibrium, and rightfully-so, his ranking is pretty close to reality.

On-the-other-hand, Anthony Cassar from Penn State is also undefeated this year, where he just majored #6 Jordan Wood, while Cassar is still at #8. The reason for this is because he's well past his equilibrium match count, so those big upsets will not move the wrestler as much.

Here are the rankings for the week.

Wrestler Rankings: https://www.wrestlestat.com/rankings/starters

Dual Rankings: https://www.wrestlestat.com/rankings/dual

Tournament Rankings: https://www.wrestlestat.com/rankings/tournament

Statistical Rankings: https://www.wrestlestat.com/rankings/statistical

Don't forget you can project out the NCAA Championships for all top 120 placements to see who will win this year.

https://www.wrestlestat.com/tourney/projection

Lastly, the Pick'Em leaderboard has been updated for this week, and the race is getting a little tighter!

https://www.wrestlestat.com/pickem/leaderboard

 

[condor]

Andegre,

Now that I understand a little better on how your rankings work, I have a couple of questions for you.

Austin Gomez was #42, and he beat #4 DeSanto. He moves up 29 places to #13 and Desanto stays at #4. Jarrett Degen was #35 during Week 4, and he beat #8 Lugo. Degen stays the same at #35 and Lugo goes down 4 spots to #12. Why did this win have no benefit to Degen in the rankings? Also, why is Lugo penalized more in the rankings for a loss in a closer match against a higher ranked opponent than Desanto?

Miklus stays the same at #5 after his loss to #6 Warner who stays the same at #6 after his win against #5 Miklus. Thoughts?

 

[Primetime26]

Andegre,

Now that I understand a little better on how your rankings work, I have a couple of questions for you.

Austin Gomez was #42, and he beat #4 DeSanto. He moves up 29 places to #13 and Desanto stays at #4. Jarrett Degen was #35 during Week 4, and he beat #8 Lugo. Degen stays the same at #35 and Lugo goes down 4 spots to #12. Why did this win have no benefit to Degen in the rankings? Also, why is Lugo penalized more in the rankings for a loss in a closer match against a higher ranked opponent than Desanto?

Miklus stays the same at #5 after his loss to #6 Warner who stays the same at #6 after his win against #5 Miklus. Thoughts?

Must have had FloWrestling do custom formulas for DeSanto

 

[Andegre]

Andegre,

Now that I understand a little better on how your rankings work, I have a couple of questions for you.

Austin Gomez was #42, and he beat #4 DeSanto. He moves up 29 places to #13 and Desanto stays at #4. Jarrett Degen was #35 during Week 4, and he beat #8 Lugo. Degen stays the same at #35 and Lugo goes down 4 spots to #12. Why did this win have no benefit to Degen in the rankings? Also, why is Lugo penalized more in the rankings for a loss in a closer match against a higher ranked opponent than Desanto?

Miklus stays the same at #5 after his loss to #6 Warner who stays the same at #6 after his win against #5 Miklus. Thoughts?

Mostly relates to that equlibrium number. If a wrestler has less than 14 matches, then they move up in the rankings MUCH faster since there ranking hasn't been "established", or proven yet. While Degen and the others that have more than 14 matches will move at the "normal" speed.

The equlibrium was put in place to help the super freshman move up faster to get to their more accurate ranking.

 

[cywr89]

Mostly relates to that equlibrium number. If a wrestler has less than 14 matches, then they move up in the rankings MUCH faster since there ranking hasn't been "established", or proven yet. While Degen and the others that have more than 14 matches will move at the "normal" speed.

The equlibrium was put in place to help the super freshman move up faster to get to their more accurate ranking.

The main problem is there is nothing in Parker’s or Degen’s past performance history for them to start so low in the first place.

 

[crablegs]

The main problem is there is nothing in Parker’s or Degen’s past performance history for them to start so low in the first place.

Really?

In Paker’s last 15 matches he has lost to #40 Turk, #23 Alber, and #64 Pohlneyer.

Similarly Degen has recent losses to #24 Mauler, #71 Olivas, #41 Jeffries. He only has one win against a top 20 guy in his career #20 McChrystal.

Both guys are sold, but their careers do not warrant high rankings.

 

[HitItHard58]

Really?

In Paker’s last 15 matches he has lost to #40 Turk, #23 Alber, and #64 Pohlneyer.

Similarly Degen has recent losses to #24 Mauler, #71 Olivas, #41 Jeffries. He only has one win against a top 20 guy in his career #20 McChrystal.

Both guys are sold, but their careers do not warrant high rankings.

Do you disagree with where Intermat, Flo, and TOM have them ranked currently?

 

[condor]

I don't love where some of these guys (Parker, Degen, Colbray) are in these rankings, but at the risk of sounding like my mother after throwing a game controller, it doesn't make any sense to get angry at a computer program. It comes down to our guys consistently beating the guys they are supposed to beat as well as winning a couple of upsets along the way. It makes sense why consistency is one of Dresser's three main bullet points this year. 3 solid upsets in one meet? Already sounds more consistent than last year.

 

[crablegs]

Do you disagree with where Intermat, Flo, and TOM have them ranked currently?

I lean more towards the wrestlestat rankings tbh. They’ve all had 1 good win recently, but inconsistency has been a big problem for Parker and Degen especially in the past. I take more of a wait and see approach. These guys have potential and are good enough to compete with all Americans, but also have shown that they will lose matches to non-NCAA qualifiers. Maybe that will change this year. We will see. But I’m good with a lower ranking until they prove that inconsistency is behind them. Scuffle will be a great test to see if they can not only beat some of the top guys, but avoid losses to guys a little lower down the ladder.