Here's what Chat GPT said:
What would a media rights deal be valued at for the original Big 12 members if they were all in the conference today?
ChatGPT said:
To estimate the value of a
media rights deal for the
original Big 12 members (i.e., the 12 schools that made up the conference at its founding in 1996), we need to consider current market dynamics, value drivers (like TV viewership and brand strength), and recent media rights trends in college sports.
Original Big 12 Members (1996):
- Texas
- Texas A&M
- Oklahoma
- Nebraska
- Colorado
- Missouri
- Kansas
- Kansas State
- Iowa State
- Baylor
- Texas Tech
- Oklahoma State
Assumption: All 12 are
still in the same conference today.
Key Variables in Valuation
1. Comparable Conference Deals (as of 2024–2025):
- Big Ten (2023–2030): ~$1.1B/year (Fox, CBS, NBC) → 16 teams → ~$70M+ per school
- SEC (starting 2024): ~$710M/year (ESPN/ABC only) → 16 teams → ~$60–65M per school
- Big 12 (new version) (2025–2031): ~$380M/year → 16 teams → ~$31.7M per school
2. Original Big 12’s Market Power (Hypothetical Today):
If the original Big 12 still existed today, it would include
blue bloods like:
- Texas and Oklahoma (huge ratings drivers)
- Nebraska (strong history, though less relevant now)
- Texas A&M, Colorado, and Missouri (top 25 potential)
- Strong rivalries and footprint across TX, OK, MO, CO, KS, NE, and IA
This lineup would arguably be the
third-most valuable conference behind the Big Ten and SEC, possibly even competing for second if it retained Texas and Oklahoma.
Estimated Media Rights Valuation (2025 Market)
| Metric | Estimate |
|---|
| Estimated total value | ~$700M–$850M/year |
| Number of teams | 12 |
| Estimated per-school payout | ~$58M–$71M/year |
Assumptions Behind Estimate:
- Valuation assumes Tier 1 & Tier 2 rights only (TV + digital)
- Does not include conference-owned networks or third-tier rights (like Longhorn Network)
- Assumes current 2025–2030 media rights landscape, not a future-shifted scenario
- Uses recent valuations of comparable college football brands and viewership
Conclusion:
If all
original Big 12 schools were still in the conference today and negotiating a new deal for 2025+, the
media rights deal would likely be valued between $700M and $850M per year, with
per-school payouts approaching $60–70 million annually, rivaling or surpassing the SEC.
