Another Damn Simulation

With Williams and Blum putting out a CF Preseason Ranking, I figured I would start putting together a conference record modeler. Obviously this is just for fun and I don't really think this is indicative of how the season will go. I started with their rankings, O/U from CBS, and the conference schedule. I used that information to create the distribution parameters from which I drew the random numbers that represent how well a team plays in a particular game. Whichever team gets the higher number "wins" the game, and the result of that game updates the distribution parameters. When you win, your random numbers skew higher and when you lose your random numbers skew lower. For everyone's first game, I equally weighted the preseason information. As games were played, I phased out the impact of preseason information. Then I simulated 5k seasons and plotted histograms of conference winning percentage. This way the unbalanced schedule gets modeled - who you play and when you play them matters.

I ran several different versions where the preseason-phase-out-period set to 1, 3, 6, and 9 games. Basically that means that by the end of the season only the records count, but how quickly the record overtakes the preseason information changes. I also ran one version with a "12 game phase out" which practically means even at the end of the season the preseason gets a 25% weight.

There wasn't much difference between the 6, 9 and 12 game phase outs - ASU, KSU, ISU and Tech were consistently towards the top. West Virginia and Arizona were at the bottom. As expected, phasing out the preseason information faster resulted in more variation.

12GamesPhaseOut.jpg 9GamesPhaseOut.jpg 6GamesPhaseOut.jpg

With only 3 games of preseason influence, the impact of unbalanced schedules started to appear more strongly. Suddenly Kansas and BYU, who's first three games are against the bottom teams, are in the top 3 of the league. As they win those early games and their preseason ranking influence goes to 0, they look like great teams. Conversely, ISU, KSU and Tech take pretty big hits as ISU and KSU play each other in a toss-up and Tech plays three top-half teams. When the preseason information goes away so quickly, a single early loss can lead to a spiral.

3GamesPhaseOut.jpg
And for you guys who think only results matter, here is the version where preseason info is only used for the first game. After that, it's all 100% driven by game results. Total chaos, with nearly every team capable of finishing almost anywhere. Again you can see the impact of schedule on Kansas and BYU, as well as Colorado and OSU.


1GamesPhaseOut.jpg


As I have time I might try this again with other conferences. I can also try different weighting for both the CF Ranking and CBS O/U, or I can incorporate other sites' preseason information.

A Cyclone's Guide to the NBA Summer League

The Las Vegas NBA Summer League tips off today with six former Cyclones on rosters. Here's an Iowa State fan's guide to the Summer League.

Conference Schedule

I was really digging into the schedule for this upcoming year, and noticed that between byes and non-con some teams won't play their first conference game until 9/27 - nearly a month after Irish Farmagedon. There will only be 5 total Big 12 conference games prior to that week (6 if you count the weird KSU/Arizona technically non-con game).

Is that an abnormally long time to wait for conference play to begin? Have I just not been paying attention?

ISU Football Pre-Sale

Single game tickets went on sale to the current Cyclone Club members and football season ticketholders Tuesday. Just went in this morning to see what is available for Iowa State/Iowa. There are lots of tickets available. Hopefully our fans step up and buy, don't want those mouthbreathers stealing our oxygen at JTS.
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Adaptive Open

Wondered if any of you have heard of the Adaptive Open? It’s a golf tournament for individuals with various disabilities. It was at Woodmont CC in Rockville, MD this year. My son is the Director of Golf Courses and Grounds so I went out and volunteered for the 3 day event. Some incredible golfers! The winning score was -24 by a golfer with cerebral palsy. Shot a 61-64-65! If interested look it up on USGA.org.

Why did the Big 12 let Microsoft butcher their marketing with AI slop?

On Monday the Big 12 released embarassing "marketing" images of every school's stadium. They were created by Big 12 sponsor Microsoft's copilot AI. Each picture had eregious errors. Ex:

'V MUNTAINEERS
TEooF TFrn
TCU STANHIK
SILLI.WATER
KSU plays on a 55 yard field
ISU icon JACE IIIBCIGMANIA
HOUSTOS A(rocket)
BUFFAL DES
SPA KNIGHTS
8YU

and

* (Yes that's the Baylor logo)

https://bsky.app/profile/sickoscommittee.org/post/3ltfwfa6ad226

https://bsky.app/profile/smokingmusket.bsky.social/post/3ltfw5ijgl22r

There's more on twitter but I refuse to link there. Terrible look for the Big 12. If you're gonna take money from Microsoft, at least care a little bit? Modicum? Smidgen? It's bad enough that AI is ruining our environment and the lives of people, but for this crap?

CFTV: Who steps up on the D-Line? Plus, Rocco raves about Sowell and Townsend

Hear from Matt Campbell on what he expects out of the defensive line. Rocco Becht talks about the strengths of transfer receivers Chase Sowell and Xavier Townsend.

Indy Car at Iowa Speedway this weekend to help We Will

Hey all!

Wanted to pass along that We Will is partering with the Iowa Speedway this weekend and will have several athletes in attendance on both Saturday and Sunday for autographs. Joshua Jefferson is also the grand marshall on Saturday and will tell the drivers to start their engines.

Ticket link here, make sure to use the code and We Will gets $10 per ticket:

http://www.indycaratiowa.com/wewill

Lexi Donarski

Nice article about where she’s going now and her basketball career.

CFTV: Championship Hunger, Depth at Linebacker and Rocco's New Weapons

The entire football program still feels the 2024 Big 12 Championship loss, Matt Campbell is confident in the linebacker depth and Rocco Becht is ready to spread the wealth. Jake Brend has more in his report from Texas. All coverage is presented by Fareway Meat & Grocery.

FB: What Matt Campbell, Rocco Becht, Jontez Williams, Dom Orange, Jeremiah Cooper and Tyler Miller said at Big 12 Media Days

Matt Campbell and several team leaders opened up Big 12 Football Media Days with a lot to say about the upcoming season.

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