Nebraska and Pac 10 Seem To Hold The Cards

[Wingback]

Here is a commentary from the Dallas Morning News on the whole conference realignment situation. He seems to think that Nebraska "holds all the cards," but the Pac 10 might ultimately force everybody's hand.

As you can imagine, the Nebraska message boards are abuzz with speculation/information/rumor. One rumor had it that the University was prepared to make an announcement over the weekend, which of course didn't happen. Another story had it that Tom Osborne met with the Nebraska coaches (all sports) on Friday to bring them all up to speed. Supposedly, Baylor (through some arm twisting by Texas/Texas A & M/state legislators) is lobbying to be the sixth Big 12 school invited into the Pac 10 (replacing Colorado in that scenario). Another rumor had the Notre Dame AD meeting with the Big 10 presidents over the weeked, but that can't be confirmed.

Most agree that what is playing out is a high-stakes game of "chicken" between Nebraska and Texas. Unfortunately for Beebee and the Big 12, all they can do is wait and see which of the two flinches. To me, no matter what happens, I think the Big 12 is damaged to the point that if it doesn't implode now, it certainly will in a relatively short period of time down the road. Is there any coincidence that the Texas schools will have been a part of two major conferences falling to pieces (SWC and Big 12)?

Ah, isn't this fun?!

Big 12 braces for what could be a deadly West Coast attack | College Sports News | Sports News | News for Dallas, Texas | Dallas Morning News

 

[jdoggivjc]

Not entirely true.

The most powerful hands in this realignment game of cards is:

1. Notre Dame
2. Texas
3. Big 10
4. Nebraska
5. Pac 10
6. OU/A&M

Notre Dame gets #1 because Armageddon comes to a screeching halt if they accede to joining the Big 10.

Texas gets #2 because they have 3 conferences (Big 10, Pac 10, and SEC) pursuing them all the while holding the keys to their current conference - but essentially their true desire is to continue ruling the Big 12.

Big 10 gets #3 because they would love to have Notre Dame and/or Texas, but both ND and Texas hold all the power in that decision, ND because they are powerful enough to remain independent, Texas because they could literally force the Big 10 to take the entirety of the Big 12 South with them if they wanted them bad enough.

Nebraska gets #4 because their offer to join the Big 10 is only pure speculation at this point and their only sure fire bet at this point is to continue with the Big 12 - at least until they actually receive a solid offer from the Big 10.

Pac 10 gets #5 because since Texas truly wants to hold the Big 12 together for their own selfish purposes, they are at the mercy of what Nebraska does - if Nebraska stays, they don't get to form the Pac 10 East out of the Big 12 South.

I throw OU and A&M in this mix at #6 because they could hold the Big 12 conference together if they chose to, but with offers coming in from the Pac 10 and SEC, they have no real motivation to do so. Their actions are tied directly to what Texas and Nebraska does - if Nebraska stays, nothing happens. If Nebraska goes, Texas goes somewhere else, and OU and A&M leave as well, possibly following Texas, possibly not.

 

[Wingback]

Not entirely true.

The most powerful hands in this realignment game of cards is:

1. Notre Dame
2. Texas
3. Big 10
4. Nebraska
5. Pac 10
6. OU/A&M

Notre Dame gets #1 because Armageddon comes to a screeching halt if they accede to joining the Big 10.

Texas gets #2 because they have 3 conferences (Big 10, Pac 10, and SEC) pursuing them all the while holding the keys to their current conference - but essentially their true desire is to continue ruling the Big 12.

Big 10 gets #3 because they would love to have Notre Dame and/or Texas, but both ND and Texas hold all the power in that decision, ND because they are powerful enough to remain independent, Texas because they could literally force the Big 10 to take the entirety of the Big 12 South with them if they wanted them bad enough.

Nebraska gets #4 because their offer to join the Big 10 is only pure speculation at this point and their only sure fire bet at this point is to continue with the Big 12 - at least until they actually receive a solid offer from the Big 10.

Pac 10 gets #5 because since Texas truly wants to hold the Big 12 together for their own selfish purposes, they are at the mercy of what Nebraska does - if Nebraska stays, they don't get to form the Pac 10 East out of the Big 12 South.

I throw OU and A&M in this mix at #6 because they could hold the Big 12 conference together if they chose to, but with offers coming in from the Pac 10 and SEC, they have no real motivation to do so. Their actions are tied directly to what Texas and Nebraska does - if Nebraska stays, nothing happens. If Nebraska goes, Texas goes somewhere else, and OU and A&M leave as well, possibly following Texas, possibly not.

Your points are well thought-out and certainly well-taken by yours truly, but I would most certainly disagree with Notre Dame being at the top of the list. Yes, there is no question that the Big 10 wants the Irish badly, but there also seems to be little doubt that they are prepared to move forward with or without them. And moving forward most definately appears to be in the direction of Missouri and Nebraska. If Nebraska goes to the Big 10, I think you will see the defection of the Big 12 South to the Pac 10 to come at lightning speed. Texas and Nebraska are in a game of "cat and mouse" at this point. If Nebraska accepts a Big 10 offer (which I think there is little question that there has been at very least an initial offer, of sorts), there is absolutely no remaining reason for Texas to remain in he Big 12. At that point, the Pac 10 becomes the Pac 12 and all you-know-what breaks loose.

 

[DaddyMac]

I think NU is really kinda screwed.

They don't seem to have an offer in hand from the Big 10 and 4 days til they have to make a commitment to the Big XII. What do they do?

There doesn't seem to be any urgency for Texas to move. They almost certainly are content with the as-is of the Big XII. In fact, if what you say is true about Baylor and CU, they still have that wrangling to do with the Pac 10. But if NU bolts, they head to the Pac 10. Seems they're safe either way with only Baylor at risk.

The only one under the gun right now is NU (and Mizzou who nobody really cares about)

 

[benjay]

Nebraska is a player, but they're not holding the cards. The Big 10 and Texas are still in control of the Big 12's fate.

 

[linkshero]

Your points are well thought-out and certainly well-taken by yours truly, but I would most certainly disagree with Notre Dame being at the top of the list. Yes, there is no question that the Big 10 wants the Irish badly, but there also seems to be little doubt that they are prepared to move forward with or without them. And moving forward most definately appears to be in the direction of Missouri and Nebraska. If Nebraska goes to the Big 10, I think you will see the defection of the Big 12 South to the Pac 10 to come at lightning speed. Texas and Nebraska are in a game of "cat and mouse" at this point. If Nebraska accepts a Big 10 offer (which I think there is little question that there has been at very least an initial offer, of sorts), there is absolutely no remaining reason for Texas to remain in he Big 12. At that point, the Pac 10 becomes the Pac 12 and all you-know-what breaks loose.

Notre Dame and Texas most certainly hold the cards, anyone that thinks it's Nebraska is very short sited, or a Cornhusker fan. ND could just about put a stop to the 'mega conference' by joining the Big Ten. Texas basically controls the collapse of the Big 12 as we know it. The only way Nebraska becomes any kind of player is if ND and Texas do nothing, or if they become a secondary part of expansion to 16 team leagues.

Regardless of what the Pac 10 thinks they might be able to do, the Big 10 would be perfectly happy with 12 if they get ND. If you don't agree with that, talk to just about any legal professional. Any conference that expands beyond 14 teams will open themselves up to billions in future litigation. If you think the Big 10 or PAC 10 will pull that off in the next few years, you are crazy.

Beyond those two schools, all the others are just pawns.

 

[JY07]

Why is it if mizzou left a couple months ago, they can be replaced... but now if nebraska left, the whole conference has to fall apart? what am i missing? are they they only ones with the keys to the office?

 

[BryceC]

To me it seems like everything hinges on Texas, the Pac-10, and the Big 10. If there is any truth to the Big 10 Presidents article from earlier today there is nothing for sure from the Big 10 at all.

 

[Arkansas Cyclone]

I agree with jdoggivjc on this one - Notre Dame is the one holding the power. If they join the B10 then I think the B10 is done with expansion for now and the dust settles. If they pass, then all hell could break loose and they could be the ultimate reason that super conferences begin to form. Which leads me to believe that ND has to seriously entertain an invite or risk not being in one of the 'supers'.

 

[DaddyMac]

To me it seems like everything hinges on Texas, the Pac-10, and the Big 10. If there is any truth to the Big 10 Presidents article from earlier today there is nothing for sure from the Big 10 at all.

I think JDog is pretty spot on above.

ND is the key. IF they go to the Big 10, good chance they stop there. No Big 10 offer for NU or Mizzou, then they stay put. Texas still gets to rule the Big XII same as always. Pac 10 is looking else where for teams, if they do anything at all.

Outside chance that the 10 year rumor of CU to the Pac 10 happens, but I don't think it'll be too hard to replace them.

 

[Wingback]

Mark my words, if Notre Dame ends up in the Big 10 it certainly doesn't end there. In spite of what is being said publicly, there is a push towards 16-team conferences. I have said all along that the only way to effectively get to a playoff system is with super conferences and I think the Presidents can save face if the super conference concept becomes reality.

The Big 10, behind closed doors, wants more than Notre Dame. The Pac 10 certainly wants to expand. And by expansion, I certainly don't think they are talking only a couple of teams. They want to be pro-active and I think they will be.

And beyond that, there is little doubt that the Big 12 is and always has been a dysfunctional conference. If it doesn't implode today, it will in a relatively short period of time.

 

[jdoggivjc]

Your points are well thought-out and certainly well-taken by yours truly, but I would most certainly disagree with Notre Dame being at the top of the list. Yes, there is no question that the Big 10 wants the Irish badly, but there also seems to be little doubt that they are prepared to move forward with or without them. And moving forward most definately appears to be in the direction of Missouri and Nebraska. If Nebraska goes to the Big 10, I think you will see the defection of the Big 12 South to the Pac 10 to come at lightning speed. Texas and Nebraska are in a game of "cat and mouse" at this point. If Nebraska accepts a Big 10 offer (which I think there is little question that there has been at very least an initial offer, of sorts), there is absolutely no remaining reason for Texas to remain in he Big 12. At that point, the Pac 10 becomes the Pac 12 and all you-know-what breaks loose.

The Big 10 would only move on without Notre Dame if ND once again said "no" to the offer, at which point the Big 10 would expand to 16 and start Armageddon. And I'm a firm believer that ND saying "no" to this and allowing Armageddon to take place would be the final death blow to the relevance of ND football in FBS. This is why it's rumored that ND is actually seriously considering it this time, as they can't afford to just let their ego get in the way anymore. They may very well say no again, but they can't afford not to blindly say no this time. Their relevance as a football power is on the line.

It's quite simple - if ND says yes to the Big 10, Armageddon ends (the Big 10 does not expand any further, at least for now), and the impact on the Big 12 is minimal (the Pac-10 may pluck Colorado from us in their quest to becoming the Pac-12, but with Nebraska and to a much lesser extent Mizzou going nowhere, Texas doesn't blow up the conference). If ND says no, however, CFB will look completely different 5 years from now.

 

[jbhtexas]

NU is holding an Ace, 2, 4, 6, and 7. What would you do with that hand in a game of straight up draw poker with no wilds and all the drawing is done???

 

[JY07]

Mark my words, if Notre Dame ends up in the Big 10 it certainly doesn't end there. In spite of what is being said publicly, there is a push towards 16-team conferences. I have said all along that the only way to effectively get to a playoff system is with super conferences and I think the Presidents can save face if the super conference concept becomes reality.

Why? how is picking a team from each of these four 16-team groupings any more effective than just picking the top 4 or 8 teams in the nation? besides benefiting the weakest of the four conferences every year?

 

[LutherClone]

This just exploded:

Pac-10 Expected To Invite New Schools Into Conference This Week - cbs4.com

MIAMI (CBS4) ―
For college football fans waiting on the first domino in conference realignment to fall, the wait may be over. According to a report from Rivals.com, Pac-10 commissioner Larry Scott is expected to start extending formal invitations to several Big XII teams to join a new Pac-10 conference.

If you're still a bit confused about what could be about to happen; here's a quick recap. Originally, the Big Ten started the expansion talk by saying it wanted to expand. Nebraska, Missouri, and possibly Notre Dame were believed to be the targets.

However, as Nebraska and Missouri were left blowing in the wind while the Big Ten began work on possible expansion; the Pac-10 moved in with a ground-shaking move last week. The Pac-10 is prepared to invite Texas, Texas A&M, Texas Tech, Oklahoma, Oklahoma State, and Colorado to join its league.

In essence, the Pac-10 would raid the Big XII and destroy the entire southern division of the conference. Assuming Missouri and Nebraska were invited to the Big Ten; that would leave what used to be the Big XII with Kansas, Kansas State, Iowa State, and Baylor.

...

Needless to say, college football fans and a fascinated press corps will likely begin to get answers this week. It could be a tough week for the Pac-10 as well, because USC is set to get its report from the infractions committee at any time during the next few weeks. Until the first domino falls though, everyone will have to wait to see where their favorite team lands.

I still don't know that I trust Orangebloods as anything but a UT mouthpiece.

 

[Wingback]

Why? how is picking a team from each of these four 16-team groupings any more effective than just picking the top 4 or 8 teams in the nation? besides benefiting the weakest of the four conferences every year?

Because in my opinion, and by the way it is an opinion I expressed on boards nearly a year ago (well before any of this realignment talk surfaced), there eventually will be more than four Super Conferences.

 

[isuforlife]

Nebraska has nocards , Pollack from hawkeye nation says noway Nebraska comes to big10

 

[isuforlife]

TEXAS HOLDS ALL THE CARDS A ROYAL FLUSH!! THEY CONTROL THE WHOLE DEAL

 

[DaddyMac]

NU is holding an Ace, 2, 4, 6, and 7. What would you do with that hand in a game of straight up draw poker with no wilds and all the drawing is done???

suited?

(agree, NU isn't sitting in the best spot right now)

 

[jbhtexas]

suited?

I think only if Osborne and Perlman are colorblind and have trouble distinguishing geometric shapes...