Am I crazy?
Admittedly this is very very very simple logic, but here's what I'm basing this on.
First what we've heard:
-Over the course of the last 2 seasons I have heard the coaches use the term 'guys we can win with' a number of times. Most of the time the number of guys we had in our weaker positions barely covered the starters (if they were even 1 deep at each position). Now Aside from maybe the Safety position, we have enough guys we can put on the field and 'win with' from what I've heard from the coaches. WR being the only position that jumps out that doesn't have enough players that if a starter drops we have someone who is serviceable that can come in. (Kicker also, but I'm choosing to ignore that)
-Josh Lenz during a spring interview said something along the lines of how the last scrimmage before the spring game they had had about 18 explosive plays. CPR if I remember this correctly defines an explosive play as 10+ yards running or 20+ passing. As has been pointed out this is against what we could consider our strongest defense in 10 years (highlighted by what some have described as potentially the best LB corps in the league), and against a defense who knows what plays are coming. As we have seen the last 2 years our Defense has been what has won us games, and if our Offense is finally clicking along with the best Defense we've had we are in excellent shape.
-We have what i think could shake out to be the best running back group since I have followed ISU. Obviously we don't have a Troy Davis or an A-Rob, but the depth is huge, and Herman has said he will get 3 of them on the field at once because they're our best players.
Who we play (this is where I oversimplify):
-We have 4 teams on our schedule who we notched a win against last year. Obviously history isn't going to just repeat, but for the sake of argument lets say it does. Basing this on the fact that i think our team will be significantly better than last year and I question that any teams could have improved much more than what ISU will have over the course of the last year.
-From there we need only 2 more wins to make a bowl. Those wins have to come from Baylor (winnable), Uconn (Winnable), Iowa (it's at jack trice stranger things have happened in this series), A&M (probably a loss), and OSU (probably a loss), Mizzou (probably a loss but they lose an NFL QB).
It's apparent that the schedule does us few favors by having the more manageable games on the road. Most will note that it's unlikely that we will beat the longhorns again. To that I say it's just as likely that we beat K-State so those two are a wash.
We will learn a lot in the non-conference season this year. But even with a tougher schedule I think Bowling is in the cards for the 2011 Cyclones. I'd put it at probably 50-60% chance, and if the results we've seen from Rhoads coached teams is an indicator the high end is usually the outcome.
Admittedly this is very very very simple logic, but here's what I'm basing this on.
First what we've heard:
-Over the course of the last 2 seasons I have heard the coaches use the term 'guys we can win with' a number of times. Most of the time the number of guys we had in our weaker positions barely covered the starters (if they were even 1 deep at each position). Now Aside from maybe the Safety position, we have enough guys we can put on the field and 'win with' from what I've heard from the coaches. WR being the only position that jumps out that doesn't have enough players that if a starter drops we have someone who is serviceable that can come in. (Kicker also, but I'm choosing to ignore that)
-Josh Lenz during a spring interview said something along the lines of how the last scrimmage before the spring game they had had about 18 explosive plays. CPR if I remember this correctly defines an explosive play as 10+ yards running or 20+ passing. As has been pointed out this is against what we could consider our strongest defense in 10 years (highlighted by what some have described as potentially the best LB corps in the league), and against a defense who knows what plays are coming. As we have seen the last 2 years our Defense has been what has won us games, and if our Offense is finally clicking along with the best Defense we've had we are in excellent shape.
-We have what i think could shake out to be the best running back group since I have followed ISU. Obviously we don't have a Troy Davis or an A-Rob, but the depth is huge, and Herman has said he will get 3 of them on the field at once because they're our best players.
Who we play (this is where I oversimplify):
-We have 4 teams on our schedule who we notched a win against last year. Obviously history isn't going to just repeat, but for the sake of argument lets say it does. Basing this on the fact that i think our team will be significantly better than last year and I question that any teams could have improved much more than what ISU will have over the course of the last year.
-From there we need only 2 more wins to make a bowl. Those wins have to come from Baylor (winnable), Uconn (Winnable), Iowa (it's at jack trice stranger things have happened in this series), A&M (probably a loss), and OSU (probably a loss), Mizzou (probably a loss but they lose an NFL QB).
It's apparent that the schedule does us few favors by having the more manageable games on the road. Most will note that it's unlikely that we will beat the longhorns again. To that I say it's just as likely that we beat K-State so those two are a wash.
We will learn a lot in the non-conference season this year. But even with a tougher schedule I think Bowling is in the cards for the 2011 Cyclones. I'd put it at probably 50-60% chance, and if the results we've seen from Rhoads coached teams is an indicator the high end is usually the outcome.
