Bowl Predictor - Odds by the numbers

[CyFan61]

I came across a cool website called bowlpredictor.com and wanted to share it.

It uses numbers used in the BCS computer formula to simulate games 10,000 times and come up with expected outcome percentages. Then it gives the odds of a team going to a specific bowl.

They just changed their layout, which makes it a lot harder (almost impossible now) to read, but the data is still good.

Iowa State has a well over 50% chance of playing in the Meineke Car Care Bowl. The Pinstripe Bowl looks like about 25% and then there is a hodgepodge of other bowls and a "No Bowl" option making up the rest. This is surprising to me, because I thought ISU had a decent shot at the Holiday Bowl.

Just thought I would share this since I like projections based on numbers and data instead of just guessing like most of the prognosticators across the internet.

Here is the image visualizing ISU's chances. The navy blue on the left is for Pinstripe and the yellow is for Meineke Car Care.

 

[ISUAgronomist]

The navy blue on the left is for Pinstripe

Not going to happen.

 

[Rogue52]

Predicting bowl destinations based on numbers is horribly bad. There are too many human elements involved.

 

[Bader]

Not going to happen.

Pinstripe picks second to last, so if it goes

BCS - K-State
BCS - OU
Cotton - UT
Alamo - OSU
BWW - TTU
Holiday - TCU
Meineke - WVU

we're back in NYC, unless the Pinstripe is able to lobby Meineke to take us instead of WVU (in this scenario). Obviously winning out improves our position

 

[CY88CE11]

Northern Illinois has a better chance of playing in the National Championship than Oregon? Am I reading that right? If so, this is awfully inaccurate.

 

[CyFan61]

Northern Illinois has a better chance of playing in the National Championship than Oregon? Am I reading that right? If so, this is awfully inaccurate.

Just saw that myself as well.

They also don't have the Big 12 getting two into the BCS. OK, now I'm mad I wasted time looking at this.

Holiday Bowl still alive!

 

[ISUAgronomist]

Pinstripe picks second to last, so if it goes

BCS - K-State
BCS - OU
Cotton - UT
Alamo - OSU
BWW - TTU
Holiday - TCU
Meineke - WVU

we're back in NYC, unless the Pinstripe is able to lobby Meineke to take us instead of WVU (in this scenario). Obviously winning out improves our position

No bowl outside the BCS bowls will pick the same team two years in a row. They live on having different matchups. Pinstripe will absolutely want and get WVU over ISU for the Big East match up.

 

[CyFan61]

Pinstripe picks second to last, so if it goes

BCS - K-State
BCS - OU
Cotton - UT
Alamo - OSU
BWW - TTU
Holiday - TCU
Meineke - WVU

we're back in NYC, unless the Pinstripe is able to lobby Meineke to take us instead of WVU (in this scenario). Obviously winning out improves our position

Barring a collapse from somebody, it's fairly clear that it will be some combination of:

Iowa State
TCU
West Virginia

fighting over some combination of these bowls:

(Holiday) - if Big 12 gets two in the BCS
Meineke Car Care
Pinstripe
(Heart of Dallas) - if Big 12 gets one in the BCS

I think it's likely we get two, and I think the way the geography works gives us the inside shot at the Holiday - especially if we finish 7-5

 

[Bader]

No bowl outside the BCS bowls will pick the same team two years in a row. They live on having different matchups. Pinstripe will absolutely want and get WVU over ISU for the Big East match up.

Right, but they pick second to last so they may not have a choice unless they lobby the Car Care Bowl to take us

 

[CyFan61]

Right, but they pick second to last so they may not have a choice unless they lobby the Car Care Bowl to take us

I think it is fairly common for bowls to do this with matchups they really want, and strike deals with bowls that are ahead of them in the pecking order.

I imagine that West Virginia and Iowa State with the Pinstripe Bowl would be one of those times. One is the best team possible for that bowl, the other was just there a year ago.

However I am interested in this scenario. WVU finishes 7-5, we finish 6-6, TCU is 6-6. The Holiday Bowl wants WVU for the brand and better record and takes them. The Pinstripe Bowl doesn't really care about these last two teams enough to strike a deal, assuming neither would travel well, and Meineke Car Care might see it as a wash - ISU might travel better, but TCU is closer and more of a TV draw.

In that situation I think we could be headed back to NYC.

 

[ISUAgronomist]

Right, but they pick second to last so they may not have a choice unless they lobby the Car Care Bowl to take us

Where they "pick" only matters for the top few bowls. Premier matchups>>>>>Picking order.

Think about alumni bases.

Relative to NYC: WVU>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>ISU
Relative to Houston: ISU>>>>>>>>>>>>>WVU

More tickets sold for each bowl and a different team at each bowl. That Big East - WVU matchup is a huge factor.

 

[JP4CY]

No bowl outside the BCS bowls will pick the same team two years in a row. They live on having different matchups. Pinstripe will absolutely want and get WVU over ISU for the Big East match up.

That is absolutely correct.

 

[Cycsk]

I'm one of those who loved going to New York. Watching CW do his pregame from the field and on the videoboard was great. I think the fans and players had a great time, except for the outcome of the game.

Yet, recruiting in Texas probably trumps all. I like the idea of pounding Purdue in Houston with lots of recruits and their families in attendance. Hope we have lots of great fan activities wherever we go, both to build the fanbase, but also to impress recruits. Needed much more of that in New York.

 

[cyclonepower]

Where they "pick" only matters for the top few bowls. Premier matchups>>>>>Picking order.

Think about alumni bases.

Relative to NYC: WVU>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>ISU
Relative to Houston: ISU>>>>>>>>>>>>>WVU

More tickets sold for each bowl and a different team at each bowl. That Big East - WVU matchup is a huge factor.

So in your opinion if we get to 6-6 you think the worst we would do is the Houston Bowl?

 

[CycloneWarning]

That is absolutely correct.

Not if WVU beats us and finishes 7-5. They may not be available for Pinstripe if Holiday takes them. If TCU and ISU are left at 6-6, not sure the Pinstripe would not prefer ISU over TCU. Said another way, not sure there is any reason TCU would be expected to travel better to NYC than ISU.

Key is to go 7-5 and pretty much lock up Holiday.

 

[ISUAgronomist]

So in your opinion if we get to 6-6 you think the worst we would do is the Houston Bowl?

If we're bowl eligible its either Houston or Dallas (shot at Holiday @ 7-5):

Following is the Big 12's selection order:BCS - Tostitos Fiesta
AT&T Cotton (SEC)
Valero Alamo (Pac-12)
Buffalo Wild Wings (Big Ten)
Bridgepoint Holiday (Pac-12)
Meineke Car Care of Texas (Big Ten)
New Era Pinstripe (Big East)
Heart of Dallas (Big Ten)

 

[cyclonepower]

Funny some are saying at 7-5 that we are a lock for the Holiday and some that we have a shot...If TCU and WV finish at 6-6 you would think that we would get selected I just dont know if we have a good enough brand to be selected, I know we have been on the "right" end of being selected over other teams I would hate to be on the "wrong" end...

 

[cyhiphopp]

Funny some are saying at 7-5 that we are a lock for the Holiday and some that we have a shot...If TCU and WV finish at 6-6 you would think that we would get selected I just dont know if we have a good enough brand to be selected, I know we have been on the "right" end of being selected over other teams I would hate to be on the "wrong" end...

I don't think either WVU or TCU are known for travelling particularly well, especially to California from West Virginia.
This would be ISUs first Holiday bowl ever and our fan base has built their reputation well. I think there would be a LOT of ISU fans heading to Cali for this one and the bowl reps know that too.

 

[Cycsk]

Not if WVU beats us and finishes 7-5. They may not be available for Pinstripe if Holiday takes them. If TCU and ISU are left at 6-6, not sure the Pinstripe would not prefer ISU over TCU. Said another way, not sure there is any reason TCU would be expected to travel better to NYC than ISU.

Key is to go 7-5 and pretty much lock up Holiday.

TCU has a national fanbase because it draws students widely from across the country. Therefore, they travel, period, even if just for school. They are used to going to better bowls in recent years, but I think their fanbase would enjoy going to New York City. It is an awesome place to visit with so much to do, especially if the weather is fantastic like last year. I could see the Pinstripe Bowl wanting them over us because they have a national fanbase that might like to come to New York.

 

[CTTB78]

Let's just say we finish 6-6. If they really want us, can't the Holiday Bowl pick 'out of order' and still take the Cyclones?