RPI dropped after yesterday

[LivntheCyLife]

I think our rpi will go up tomorrow even if we lose.

Yep, win or lose, I think ISU's RPI is guarenteed to go up. And I see a lot of misconceptions about RPI in this thread. RPI doesn't care about who you beat and who you lost to, it only cares about your winning percentage and then how tough your schedule is. The one caveat is that the winning percentage gives a bonus to road wins and an extra penalty to home losses.

Other teams' conference games will have no effect on ISU's RPI ranking at the end of the year. Each win for a team that you play twice is exactly cancelled out by the loss of a team you played twice. The only thing that really matters is Iowa State's record and then the record of non-conference foes. But there will be the added noise of the current RPI ratings including say TCU and Texas Tech twice but KU and OSU only once until it all evens out at the end of the season.

 

[swarthmoreCY]

I think you are crazy to say that if we only win 2 more we are not in. It would take a LOT of upsets in conference tournaments to throw us out if we get to 21 wins and 11 conference wins. It doesn't matter how we get those 2 wins.

I said two wins against a tough schedule would make it 50/50 (and thus not a good spot), which is not saying "if we only win 2 more we are not in".

Our resume would not be as strong as it was last year (likely worse RPI, less conference wins in a weaker conference) when we got an 8 seed- we would be squarely on the bubble. Given the weakness of the Big 12 compared to last year, it is just as plausible the numbers fall against us as it is that we get in.

The Pac-12 only got 2 teams in last year and the SEC 4. Those two conferences will likely get a combined 9 or 10 this year. The Big 10 and ACC will likely get a team more apiece. Given that and the drop in the Big 12's RPI and perceived strength, there will not be 6 invites, and KU, KSU, OSU, and OU will be significantly ahead of us in RPI and likely at least a 2-game buffer in conference records. The question is will they take 5?

If we only win two games, which would not be bad given the schedule, we are very vulnerable to any upsets in conference tournament play. Also consider we do not do well in a comparisons to similar bubble teams that we will likely be competing with for a spot: UNLV, Cincy, and the 7th/8th place Big 10 team (aka Iowa-like or better). Finally, if Baylor likely only finishes with one or two more wins, and not only would it marginalize two of our "good wins", we would play them in the first round of the Big 12 tournament.

 

[nickcyv]

I think you are understating it. If we go 2-3 in the next five we are still just as likely to be out as we are in. There is a good chance we will be the underdog in each of the next four games and playing a toss-up game in the 1st round of the Big 12 Tournament. Considering our home games are against the toughest remaining opponents, we could easily go 1-4 in the next five as we could 3-2.
Hell, given our season, games against top-10 and top-20 teams are essentially must wins. That is a tough spot, and I love our home court advantage as much as anyone.

Think about it, if we lose one against a top-20 team, which is very possible, if not likely, we must win two games away from Hilton. We have 4 wins away from Hilton all year, three of those being against teams far worse than OU, WVU, and likely UT or WVU in the Big 12 tournament.

Realistically the only way ISU fans need to worry on selection Sunday is if ISU loses out. As of now the Cyclones are playing for seed.

 

[rasclone]

It's hard to respect your opinion when you have no clue how the Big 12 tournament brackets work. Given what you have said, we will be in the 4 vs 5 game on Thursday. Probably OU. We will not be facing Baylor or West VA or Texas.

 

[swarthmoreCY]

Realistically the only way ISU fans need to worry on selection Sunday is if ISU loses out. As of now the Cyclones are playing for seed.

1-4 in the next 5 and I will be extremely worried.

 

[rasclone]

It's hard to respect your opinion when you have no clue how the Big 12 tournament brackets work. Given what you have said, we will be in the 4 vs 5 game on Thursday. Probably OU. We will not be facing Baylor or West VA or Texas.

Replying to Swarthmore

 

[Cincyclone]

If ISU wins 2 more games they're a lock. It doesn't even matter who they come against.

 

[swarthmoreCY]

It's hard to respect your opinion when you have no clue how the Big 12 tournament brackets work. Given what you have said, we will be in the 4 vs 5 game on Thursday. Probably OU. We will not be facing Baylor or West VA or Texas.

True, my mistake. If you believe that reduces the validity of the other unrelated points, that is your mistake.

 

[carvers4math]

I don't think we'll move up if we lose to KU at home. On the road, maybe, but not at home. If Cincinnati wins today, that might help our RPI a little.

Last I looked, Notre Dame was killing Cincy.

I'm going to blame this on the Hoks, whether that is rational or not.

 

[gocubs2118]

We're almost guaranteed to play OU in the first round of the Big XII touranment. The only way we won't is if we win 3 or 4 of our remaining games and in that case it most likely wont matter how we do in the tournament as we'll probably be in anyway.

 

[dbronco7sc]

Yep, win or lose, I think ISU's RPI is guarenteed to go up. And I see a lot of misconceptions about RPI in this thread. RPI doesn't care about who you beat and who you lost to, it only cares about your winning percentage and then how tough your schedule is. The one caveat is that the winning percentage gives a bonus to road wins and an extra penalty to home losses.

Other teams' conference games will have no effect on ISU's RPI ranking at the end of the year. Each win for a team that you play twice is exactly cancelled out by the loss of a team you played twice. The only thing that really matters is Iowa State's record and then the record of non-conference foes. But there will be the added noise of the current RPI ratings including say TCU and Texas Tech twice but KU and OSU only once until it all evens out at the end of the season.

Correct... non-conference games are the big factor in determining our strength of schedule. At this point all that really matters is whether we win our games and our non-conference opponents win their games.

That said, has anybody done an analysis of moving to an 18 game conference schedule vs our old 16 game format? In theory it lowers our conference's win percentage... as typically (always as far as I can remember) the Big 12's non-conference win percentage is > .500. Now we replaced some of those games with an exactly .500 winnig percentage (one Big 12 team wins and one loses).

So while our league's win percentage will go down, our strength of schedule will go up. However, statistically, what is the best ratio of non-conference games to conference games in terms of maximizing league RPI? (I'd guess this value will be directly correlated to our league non-conference win percentage which will vary from year to year)

That said... RPI isn't the end all. It's a tool and an indicator. The final decisions get made by committee.

 

[mjhavlo76]

Disagree. We beat Kansas tomorrow night, then we would be playing for a seed.

Realistically the only way ISU fans need to worry on selection Sunday is if ISU loses out. As of now the Cyclones are playing for seed.

 

[IAStubborn]

Iowa State will have to win out to get the 3 seed. Possible but unlikely. I'd rather play OU than Baylor though as Baylor will likely need to win that game to go dancing.

Thats not true, there are a number of plausable scenarios where we go 12-6 and get the 3, most likely is we lose to wvu we tie osu for 3rd (osu loses to us and ksu) we win tie breaker because osu got swept by ksu.

 

[Cy$]

Thats not true, there are a number of plausable scenarios where we go 12-6 and get the 3, most likely is we lose to wvu we tie osu for 3rd (osu loses to us and ksu) we win tie breaker because osu got swept by ksu.

@ TCU
vs Texas
vs Kansas St.
@ Iowa St.

If ISU loses one, then OSU would have to lose 2. I doubt they'd lose to KSU and the other 2 they'll win easily.

 

[mikeiastat]

If we end the season 2-2, I will not be worried in the slightest about getting in. 1-4 yes I'd be scared and would say it would be 50-50, but 2-2 and its a lock. RPI would be better than 50. Good conf and conference schedule. Lots of close games against top teams, and a solid non-conf scheduling effort all are pluses with committee. What are the factors that are going to go against that to argue that our RPI is inflated?

Even with 1-4, I think our rpi stays in the 55 range and there are a lot of positive arguments for us. I still think the clones get in given the weak bubble. No way in hell the Big 10 gets in 8 and ISU gets left out unless we lose out.

 

[IAStubborn]

@ TCU
vs Texas
vs Kansas St.
@ Iowa St.

If ISU loses one, then OSU would have to lose 2. I doubt they'd lose to KSU and the other 2 they'll win easily.

I didnt say it would happen, just said it was plausible. You said the ONLY way we get the 3rd seed was winning out, which as I stated was false. Kstate will be playing for the conference championship, I would not be shocked if they win that game.