Let's assume Rhoads will return in 2015. All signs seem to point that way. Since we're assuming Rhoads will be the HC in 2015, let's discuss places to find optimism for a better year in 2015.
This thread isn't to argue whether or not Rhoads should return -- we're assuming he will. This thread isn't to argue whether or not we're being overly optimistic -- that's the point.
This thread is about making lemons out of lemonade. Rhoads will be back, so let's make the most of it and find things to look forward to. I'll get things rolling:
1) The South End Zone
The most obvious place to start. The SEZ will generate excitement and enthusiasm and we should have 61,000+ screaming fans for the first few games, easily. Even the most jaded fans who are done with football this year will want to show up to see New Jack Trice Stadium.
With two jumbo scoreboards, two ribbon boards, and all-new acoustics, Jack Trice Stadium will now be a much tougher place to play. Make no mistake, this really is a big deal and it will affect passing, kicking, and noise levels significantly. JTS will play very differently than it has before. For a team that's struggled to win at home, any little advantage will help.
2) The Extremely Favorable Schedule
Have you seen our schedule for next year? It's amazing. First off, it's a great home schedule: 2 September games, 3 October games, and only 1 November game, and it's November 14th. Three of our first four games are at home, while the weather is nice and the SEZ is a novelty. We should have great crowds.
Secondly, the schedule is easiest at the front. For a team with a bruised psyche, this is a perfect way to ramp up and build confidence. UNI, Iowa, @Toledo, Kansas, @Texas Tech are the first five games. The three home games are all winnable and the road games are not difficult. I'm not making any 5-0 predictions, but the team will get a taste of winning again.
UNI loses a ton off this year's team, including stud RB David Johnson. Iowa loses a ton, too. David, Trinca-Passat, Martin-Manley, Weisman, Powell, Scherff, Bullock, Lowdermilk, and Alston are all gone.
Third, we only have one bye week. I'm putting this down as a good thing. ISU under Rhoads has been terrible coming off a bye week, so the fewer byes, the better. I think Rhoads' teams seem to do better during the steady rhythm of a season. Disjointed schedules do us no favors.
3) We Really Don't Lose That Much
Major senior losses: Bibbs, Jevohn Miller, Cory Morrisey, Wimberly, Farniok, Gannon, Jensen, and Jarvis West.
Bibbs, Wimberly, and West are the biggest losses here. The emergence of Allen Lazard will certainly help soothe the loss of Bibbs and West. Wimberly, while pretty good, didn't help improve our RB corps in any measurable way. We will still bad at RB with Wimberly, so I don't think it'll get much worse. Nealy and Syria will help provide a good one-two punch going forward.
Jensen, Gannon, Morrisey all played on lines that were pretty much dumpster fires. The line play was so bad on both sides of the ball I don't think it can get a whole lot worse.
Farniok will be missed mostly because it felt like our line play collapsed with him out of the game. But hopefully that was just due to a sudden leadership vacuum on the line, and this loss will be mitigated by grooming a successor throughout spring and fall.
Senior losses will affect WR play the most. We actually had some decent WR play this year, but we also have a superstar in the making with Allen Lazard, so...
RB, OL, DL, and LB were all so terrible that I find it hard to argue losing these seniors will hurt them that much more. They're already bad.
4) The Injury Bug Won't Hit Three Straight Years
2013 and 2014 were by-far the most injury riddled years of the Paul Rhoads era. It's hard to imagine that we'll get bit by the bug for a third straight year. At least, not at the level we've been sustaining injuries.
If we can stay healthy next year, we will have some good depth built up from all the injuries we've weathered the last two years and their replacements getting significant playing time.
The 2015 team could be a team that can actually substitute players who need a breather -- which is important in the up-tempo Big 12.
There have been a lot of folks questioning Yancy McKnight, but I've heard from folks in the S&C field who think the world of Yancy. He's considered one of the best. S&C is in good hands.
5) Mangino Gets a Full Offseason to Implement his System
We've seen flashes of brilliance from Mangino followed by frustration. It's clear he still needs time to get his system implemented and his players fully acclimated to it. With a full offseason to evaluate what he is working with, plus an opportunity to influence recruiting, I fully expected Mangino's offense to shine in his second year.
6) No QB Derby
There will be no QB Derby in the offseason. Sam's the man. Unless Lanning comes out and he's visibly, clearly, no-doubt-about-it better (which would be great), Sam will be the clear-cut starter as a Senior. He'll get all the snaps with the #1's and he'll have every opportunity to grasp Mangino's system. All the focus can be on beating the other teams instead of beating the guys on the same team.
7) Staff Continuity
We replaced an absurd number of staff members over the last offseason. Anytime this happens in any program, it's usually considered a clear sign that the next season will be a major step back. For some reason, we closed our own eyes to this. We ignored the clear warning signs. But yes, we too suffered major growing pains replacing so many coaches.
It looks like we should keep almost all of the coaching staff in place over this offseason. This will give the program much-needed stability and continuity, and the team will be better for it.
8) Recruiting Will Be Okay
Yes, there have been a few de-commitments as of late. Most of these guys were verbally "committed" to Iowa State while continuing to take visits. These guys weren't all-in on Iowa State and suddenly jumped ship. They were with us as long as we were the best option.
We still have three great recruiting weapons at our disposal:
a) Playing Time
b) New Jack Trice Stadium (third biggest stadium in the Big 12)
c) The Football Building
Kids love bells and whistles. Getting to play in a brand-new stadium with gigantic scoreboards, ribbon boards, and the 3rd largest capacity in the Big 12 is a big deal. Our Football Building is still very new and very impressive. And we most definitely can sell Playing Time.
When all's said and done, recruiting will be just fine. It's a marathon, not a sprint. Playing at Iowa State is tough; it's not easy, and our recruits will need to reflect that toughness, too. I'm not saying we wouldn't have loved to get those recruits (we would have); I'm just saying that we need a certain type of player to succeed at Iowa State. Jumping ship because we lost to a Kansas isn't going to help.
9) The One Season Turnaround Has Been Done Before
2003 was a 2-10 dumpster fire of a season. 2003 was McCarney's 9th season and the momentum was already trending downward at that point -- every season was downhill from 2000.
The very next year, we were Big 12 North Co-Champions. Certainly, the addition of Bret Meyer was a major factor, but so were a few major JUCO recruiting pickups who became stalwarts of our 2004-2005 defensive core.
2008 was a 2-10 dumpster fire of a season. The very next year, we went 7-6 without any major change in the personnel on the field.
Over the last 11 years, we have gone 2-10 twice, and both times we followed up 2-10 seasons with a 7 win season.
Past performance is not indicative of future performance. I get that. Just because we've had a tendency to follow up 2-10 seasons with bowl-winning seasons doesn't mean we will this time. But to say it can't be done or that it's impossible or that it won't happen at Iowa State... well... that's not true. (Yes, the Big 12 season is harder now.)
...
It's entirely possible we continue to suck next year. By Senior Day, the new South End Zone is already empty and deserted. Paul Rhoads is shown the door right after Thanksgiving 2015. All of that is entirely possible.
But maybe, just maybe, there are some reasons to be hopeful. After all, we're Iowa State. We're experts in hope. Maybe Lucy won't pull the football away from us this time.
This thread isn't to argue whether or not Rhoads should return -- we're assuming he will. This thread isn't to argue whether or not we're being overly optimistic -- that's the point.
This thread is about making lemons out of lemonade. Rhoads will be back, so let's make the most of it and find things to look forward to. I'll get things rolling:
1) The South End Zone
The most obvious place to start. The SEZ will generate excitement and enthusiasm and we should have 61,000+ screaming fans for the first few games, easily. Even the most jaded fans who are done with football this year will want to show up to see New Jack Trice Stadium.
With two jumbo scoreboards, two ribbon boards, and all-new acoustics, Jack Trice Stadium will now be a much tougher place to play. Make no mistake, this really is a big deal and it will affect passing, kicking, and noise levels significantly. JTS will play very differently than it has before. For a team that's struggled to win at home, any little advantage will help.
2) The Extremely Favorable Schedule
Have you seen our schedule for next year? It's amazing. First off, it's a great home schedule: 2 September games, 3 October games, and only 1 November game, and it's November 14th. Three of our first four games are at home, while the weather is nice and the SEZ is a novelty. We should have great crowds.
Secondly, the schedule is easiest at the front. For a team with a bruised psyche, this is a perfect way to ramp up and build confidence. UNI, Iowa, @Toledo, Kansas, @Texas Tech are the first five games. The three home games are all winnable and the road games are not difficult. I'm not making any 5-0 predictions, but the team will get a taste of winning again.
UNI loses a ton off this year's team, including stud RB David Johnson. Iowa loses a ton, too. David, Trinca-Passat, Martin-Manley, Weisman, Powell, Scherff, Bullock, Lowdermilk, and Alston are all gone.
- We should always expect to beat FCS schools like UNI, and they'll be down next year.
- We beat Iowa this year at Kinnick and they lose a ton.
- We beat Toledo this year, and we tend to play fine on the road.
- Kansas will be breaking in a new HC; they won't retain Bowen.
- We had our chances against Texas Tech this year and we've beaten better teams in Lubbock under Rhoads.
Third, we only have one bye week. I'm putting this down as a good thing. ISU under Rhoads has been terrible coming off a bye week, so the fewer byes, the better. I think Rhoads' teams seem to do better during the steady rhythm of a season. Disjointed schedules do us no favors.
3) We Really Don't Lose That Much
Major senior losses: Bibbs, Jevohn Miller, Cory Morrisey, Wimberly, Farniok, Gannon, Jensen, and Jarvis West.
Bibbs, Wimberly, and West are the biggest losses here. The emergence of Allen Lazard will certainly help soothe the loss of Bibbs and West. Wimberly, while pretty good, didn't help improve our RB corps in any measurable way. We will still bad at RB with Wimberly, so I don't think it'll get much worse. Nealy and Syria will help provide a good one-two punch going forward.
Jensen, Gannon, Morrisey all played on lines that were pretty much dumpster fires. The line play was so bad on both sides of the ball I don't think it can get a whole lot worse.
Farniok will be missed mostly because it felt like our line play collapsed with him out of the game. But hopefully that was just due to a sudden leadership vacuum on the line, and this loss will be mitigated by grooming a successor throughout spring and fall.
Senior losses will affect WR play the most. We actually had some decent WR play this year, but we also have a superstar in the making with Allen Lazard, so...
RB, OL, DL, and LB were all so terrible that I find it hard to argue losing these seniors will hurt them that much more. They're already bad.
4) The Injury Bug Won't Hit Three Straight Years
2013 and 2014 were by-far the most injury riddled years of the Paul Rhoads era. It's hard to imagine that we'll get bit by the bug for a third straight year. At least, not at the level we've been sustaining injuries.
If we can stay healthy next year, we will have some good depth built up from all the injuries we've weathered the last two years and their replacements getting significant playing time.
The 2015 team could be a team that can actually substitute players who need a breather -- which is important in the up-tempo Big 12.
There have been a lot of folks questioning Yancy McKnight, but I've heard from folks in the S&C field who think the world of Yancy. He's considered one of the best. S&C is in good hands.
5) Mangino Gets a Full Offseason to Implement his System
We've seen flashes of brilliance from Mangino followed by frustration. It's clear he still needs time to get his system implemented and his players fully acclimated to it. With a full offseason to evaluate what he is working with, plus an opportunity to influence recruiting, I fully expected Mangino's offense to shine in his second year.
6) No QB Derby
There will be no QB Derby in the offseason. Sam's the man. Unless Lanning comes out and he's visibly, clearly, no-doubt-about-it better (which would be great), Sam will be the clear-cut starter as a Senior. He'll get all the snaps with the #1's and he'll have every opportunity to grasp Mangino's system. All the focus can be on beating the other teams instead of beating the guys on the same team.
7) Staff Continuity
We replaced an absurd number of staff members over the last offseason. Anytime this happens in any program, it's usually considered a clear sign that the next season will be a major step back. For some reason, we closed our own eyes to this. We ignored the clear warning signs. But yes, we too suffered major growing pains replacing so many coaches.
It looks like we should keep almost all of the coaching staff in place over this offseason. This will give the program much-needed stability and continuity, and the team will be better for it.
8) Recruiting Will Be Okay
Yes, there have been a few de-commitments as of late. Most of these guys were verbally "committed" to Iowa State while continuing to take visits. These guys weren't all-in on Iowa State and suddenly jumped ship. They were with us as long as we were the best option.
We still have three great recruiting weapons at our disposal:
a) Playing Time
b) New Jack Trice Stadium (third biggest stadium in the Big 12)
c) The Football Building
Kids love bells and whistles. Getting to play in a brand-new stadium with gigantic scoreboards, ribbon boards, and the 3rd largest capacity in the Big 12 is a big deal. Our Football Building is still very new and very impressive. And we most definitely can sell Playing Time.
When all's said and done, recruiting will be just fine. It's a marathon, not a sprint. Playing at Iowa State is tough; it's not easy, and our recruits will need to reflect that toughness, too. I'm not saying we wouldn't have loved to get those recruits (we would have); I'm just saying that we need a certain type of player to succeed at Iowa State. Jumping ship because we lost to a Kansas isn't going to help.
9) The One Season Turnaround Has Been Done Before
2003 was a 2-10 dumpster fire of a season. 2003 was McCarney's 9th season and the momentum was already trending downward at that point -- every season was downhill from 2000.
The very next year, we were Big 12 North Co-Champions. Certainly, the addition of Bret Meyer was a major factor, but so were a few major JUCO recruiting pickups who became stalwarts of our 2004-2005 defensive core.
2008 was a 2-10 dumpster fire of a season. The very next year, we went 7-6 without any major change in the personnel on the field.
Over the last 11 years, we have gone 2-10 twice, and both times we followed up 2-10 seasons with a 7 win season.
Past performance is not indicative of future performance. I get that. Just because we've had a tendency to follow up 2-10 seasons with bowl-winning seasons doesn't mean we will this time. But to say it can't be done or that it's impossible or that it won't happen at Iowa State... well... that's not true. (Yes, the Big 12 season is harder now.)
...
It's entirely possible we continue to suck next year. By Senior Day, the new South End Zone is already empty and deserted. Paul Rhoads is shown the door right after Thanksgiving 2015. All of that is entirely possible.
But maybe, just maybe, there are some reasons to be hopeful. After all, we're Iowa State. We're experts in hope. Maybe Lucy won't pull the football away from us this time.
