NCAA Spots Cashed & At Large

[Judoka]

Sulzer wins 5-2. Had been hoping Ramos might be able to get him a second time but no luck.

 

[buf87]

Now that Sulzer redeemed his loss to Ramos, I think #1 is Dieringer, #2 Sulzer, #3 Moreno, #4 I Jordan, #5 Bo Jordan.

I think a bit of a drop after the top 5 and on opposite sides of Dieringer.

 

[Judoka]

Now that Sulzer redeemed his loss to Ramos, I think #1 is Dieringer, #2 Sulzer, #3 Moreno, #4 I Jordan, #5 Bo Jordan.

I think a bit of a drop after the top 5 and on opposite sides of Dieringer.

Redeeming the loss doesn't matter per the seeding criteria. He's 1-1 against Ramos, the order doesn't matter. He has two losses. Though the other side of that - Moreno has 3 losses. And the fact that two of them are to Dieringer also probably doesn't matter. Just that he has 3. Have to check out the quality wins every in that top 5 has to get the full criteria though.

I think Moreno still should be 2nd in the coaches panel, which should help him a tiny bit.

 

[buf87]

As long as he stay #2 or #3, I would be fine with

 

[Judoka]

Starting to look at the at large situation at 125. To be eligible for consideration for an at large, Larson has to remain in the coaches panel (he was 33rd out of 33 in the last one, so no margin to drop).

There are 9 at large spots available. I count 11 guys who were in the last coaches panel that did not earn an automatic bid.

+-----+----+---------+-----------+----------------------+---------------+
| 125 | 10 |  Eddie  |  Klimara  |    Oklahoma State    |    Big 12     |
| 125 | 12 | Tim     | Lambert   | Nebraska             | Big Ten       |
+-----+----+---------+-----------+----------------------+---------------+
| 125 | 22 | Zeke    | Moisey    | West Virginia        | Big 12        |
| 125 | 23 | Joe     | DeAngelo  | North Carolina State | ACC           |
| 125 | 25 | Dominic | Parisi    | Appalachian State    | SoCon         |
| 125 | 26 | Evan    | Silver    | Stanford             | Pac 12        |
| 125 | 26 | Brandon | Jeske     | Old Dominion         | MAC           |
| 125 | 28 | Carson  | Kuhn      | Boise State          | Pac 12        |
| 125 | 30 | Scott   | Parker    | Lehigh               | EIWA          |
| 125 | 31 | William | Watterson | Brown                | EIWA          |
| 125 | 33 | Kyle    | Larson    | Iowa State           | Big 12        |
+-----+----+---------+-----------+----------------------+---------------+

• Klimara is a lock
• Lambert got bumped one shy of qualifying in the Big Ten because of Delgado, he's a lock
• Joe DeAngelo lost in the 3rd place match at the ACC to #32 Dom Forys of Pitt. Forys was already in the rankings so him moving up won't hurt Larson.
• Domonic Parasi took 4th at the SoCon, with two losses to unranked wrestlers. With luck, he'll drop out of the rankings.
• Evan Silver advanced to the Pac-12 finals via a forfeit from Kuhn and then lost the true second match to Ares Carpio of Arizona State. Larson has a win over Carpio.
• Brandon Jeske lost to Peters of UNI in the MAC semis and then lost to unranked Fleetwood from CMU in the consolation semis before finishing with a win over an unranked guy to take 5th. With luck, he'll drop out of the rankings.
• Carson Kuhn injury defaulted out of the Pac-12 tournament. Not sure how the ranking panel, or the at large committee, will treat that.
• Scott Parker took 4th, one shy of qualifying, at EIWAs. Dunno if he'll drop for that.
• William Watterson took 5th at EIWAs, including a loss to Parker. Hopefully he drops out of the rankings.
• Larson took 3rd at Big XIIs with a loss to #10 Klimara and then a win via forfeit in the 3rd place match.

First two are enough of a lock I wouldn't even consider them in the group. So essentially there are 9 guys for 7 spots. That is assuming that there aren't any shakeups in the coaches panel. Hopefully any that do happen involve Larson staying where he is at or moving up. Joaquin Marquez of The Citadel and Ares Carpio of Arizona State were the only two currently unranked guys who earned automatic spots.

 

[Judoka]

I suppose it would be better to actually go through the criteria

Secondary Criteria
On March 9, wrestlers in each weight class will receive an updated Win %, RPI and coaches’ ranking that includes all competition through the qualifying events. Wrestlers who meet or exceed any two of the following criteria will be labeled “Bronze Standardâ€:

• .700 Win %
  
• Top 33 RPI
  
• Top 33 CR
  
• .700 winning percentage against all competition
  
• One win against a wrestler receiving automatic qualification via an earned position (pre-allocated)
  
• Qualifying event placement one below automatic qualification

Only Bronze Standard wrestlers will be eligible for selection as at large qualifiers. A wrestler must have participated in his respective conference or regional qualifying tournament in order to be considered for at-large selection to the championships. The NCAA Wrestling Committee will use the following weighted criteria, in priority order, to evaluate the Bronze Standard wrestlers

• Head-to-head competition — 25 percent
  
• Quality wins — 20 percent
  
• Results against common opponents — 10 percent
  
• RPI — 10 percent
  
• Qualifying event placement — 10 percent
  
• CR — 10 percent
  
• Win % — 10 percent
  
• Number of matches contested at that weight class — 5 percent

Since it isn't easy anymore to check out everybody's record (RIP NWCA Scorebook) I'm going to assume that anybody who meets two of the criteria will meet at least one of the coaches panel, RPI, and 1 spot below qualification criteria.

 

[buf87]

Are they all in the RPI?

 

[Judoka]

Are they all in the RPI?

According to the sexy spreadsheet that I just filled out, there are a total of only 9 wrestlers who would be eligible for the at large spots if they came out today. However - I did not review the record of every single Gold/Silver guy who successfully cashed in their ticket to NCAAs. There could be a guy or two lurking with a win over one of them. Additionally, I did not review every D1 guy's record to see if they were above .700 overall. So again, there could be a guy or two lurking with that going for them.

And remember there will be a new coaches poll tomorrow as well as a new RPI calculation, so new guys could get in via those, and some of those nine could fall out. I'm not sure if we'll see those before at large bids are announced. But, as long as Larson stays in the coaches panel, I think he's got a very good chance of getting in. If he is not in the final coaches panel then he isn't eligible for consideration. Which is crap - in a normal year Klimara and Moisey would have gotten allocations, and his 3rd place would have been "1 below automatic qualification". So he wouldn't require a coaches panel ranking to be eligible for an at large, he'd meet the RPI and "1 below" criteria.

Of the nine, Klimara and Lambert are the only two that are set in stone regardless of the new panel/RPI. Though I'd consider Moisey and DeAngelo to be pretty much locks as well.

edit: Lizak of Minnesota has a 2-1 win over Rodriguez of Air Force, so he's a 10th guy who is eligible for an at large bid.

 

[buf87]

I could see Lisak jumping in the coaches poll in replace of Watterson

 

[Judoka]

I could see Lisak jumping in the coaches poll in replace of Watterson

Agree on that. I'm thinking Kuhn drops out and hopefully Jackson is lobbying today to point out that Larson's loss was to the #10 ranked wrestler and his win over Carpio is looking better than it did a week ago. Maybe enough to jump Silver, at least. I don't care where he's at in the coaches panel as long as he's in it.

 

[Judoka]

I checked and Kuhn has a win over Trey Andrews of Northern Colorado. So if he stays in the coaches poll he will be eligible for an at large. Bill Watterson has been to busy focusing on his comics, and it doesn't look like he has any.

Since quality wins are such a big chunk of the At large equation, we'll really need Kuhn to drop out of the coaches poll and not be eligible for consideration.

 

[Judoka]

I'm going to start looking at seeding sometime today. I'll do at least Moreno, but I'll look at Gadson and Hall if I have time. I'm not going to worry about Weatherman and Gabe unless I get really bored.

 

[Judoka]

Going to start by looking at quality wins for the top five. I think there is a clear cut between 2-5 and the next tier. For the purposes of at-large selection, a quality win is defined as a win over a wrestler who was Gold/Silver and earned an automatic bid to NCAAs. Which means that the following guys who were gold/silver and did not earn an automatic bid are not considered quality wins. It is possible the seeding committee uses a different definition of "quality win" than the at large committee does. But that's the best definition I have so what I will use.
Big Ten: Moore, Hammond, and Wanzek did not claim their spots
Pac-12: Fierro did not claim his spot
ACC: Rohskopf did not claim his spot
SoCon: Trott did not claim his spot
WWC: Friest did not claim his spot

I don't think I missed any of their matches, but I might have. Let me know if I did and I'll add them in.

Alex Dieringer (28-0) has 7 quality wins and is 7-0 against guys who meet that standard. He's #1 in the pre-conference tourney coaches panel and #1 in the pre conference tourney RPI.
14-4 W over #19 Garrett Hammond
TF #13 Payton Walsh (Navy)
8-2 W over #4 Nick Sulzer (Virginia)
15-3 W over #24 Mikey England (Missouri)
17-6 over #10 Ethan Ramos (UNC)
13-3 W over #2 Mike Moreno (Iowa State)
14-4 W over #2 Mike Moreno (Iowa State)

Mike Moreno (22-3) has 4 quality wins and is 4-3 against wrestlers who meet that standard. He's tied for #2 in the pre-conference tourney coaches panel and #2 in the pre conference tourney RPI.
14-6 W over #13 Peyton Walsh (Navy)
LBF to #6 Taylor Walsh (Indiana)
WBF over #11 Cooper Moore (UNI)
13-3 L TO #1 Alex Dieringer (Oklahoma State)
5-2 W over #11 Cooper Moore (UNI)
WBF over #5 Isaac Jordan (Wisconsin)
14-4 L to #1 Alex Dieringer (Oklahoma State)

Bo Jordan (19-1) has 3 quality wins and is 3-1 against wrestlers to meet that standard. He's tied for #2 in the pre-conference tourney coaches panel and was not inlcuded in the pre conference tourney RPI. He will have an RPI in the post-conference tournament calculation.
10-2 W over #13 Peyton Walsh (Navy)
6-4 (OT) over #6 Taylor Walsh (Indiana)
8-1 W over #7 Pierce Harger (Northwestern)
3-2 L to #5 Isaac Jordan (Wisconsin)

Nick Sulzer (26-2) has 3 quality wins and is 3-2 against wrestlers who meet that standard. He's #4 in the pre-conference tourney coaches panel and #5 in the pre conference tourney RPI.
13-6 over #11 Cooper Moore (UNI)
4-2 over #6 Taylor Walsh (Indiana)
8-2 L to #1 Alex Dieringer (Oklahoma State)
6-4 L (OT) to #10 Ethan Ramos (UNC)
5-2 W over #10 Ethan Ramos (UNC)

Isaac Jordan (22-2) has 6 quality wins and is 6-2 against wrestlers who meet that standard. He's #5 in the pre-conference tourney coaches panel and #6 in the pre conference tourney RPI.
2-0 L to #16 Jesse Stafford (Air Force)
8-0 W over #23 Harrison Hightower (Ohio)
3-1 W over #6 Taylor Walsh (Indiana)
WBF over #7 Pierce Harger (Northwestern)
5-1 W over #8 Jackson Morse (Illinois)
LBF to #2 Mike Moreno (Iowa State)
6-5 W over #6 Taylor Walsh (Indiana)
3-2 W over #2 Bo Jordan (Ohio State)

 

[Judoka]

They are all close in coaches ranking, quality wins, overall record, RPI, and so on. So I think it'll really come down to how they determine the pool of people they are considering for "head to head competition". Here's how that could give Moreno the 2 or 3 seed:
-Dieringer is removed from the pool as the clear #1
-Taylor Walsh (the #6 ranked guy) is not included in the head to head consideration but instead only looked at as a common opponent.

If the pool is just Moreno, both Jordans, and Sulzer then Moreno will get the 2 or 3 seed.

Buuuuut.... this is how he get's Gadson'd
-Dieringer is included in the head to head pool
-Taylor Walsh (who pinned Moreno) is included in the head to head consideration

That pushes Moreno to the 5 seed and a semifinals appointment with Dieringer.

 

[Judoka]

At larges will be announced on Wednesday starting at noon and the bracket release show is at 5.

 

[Judoka]

The percentage weight of each of the criteria is the same for seeding as it is for at larges. But depending on how exactly the values are determined (i.e. RPI is 10%, but how many points is an RPI of two worth vs an RPI of five? How many points is a coaches panel of 2 vs 4? etc.) I could see Moreno getting a seed anywhere from 2 to 5.

 

[Judoka]

I realized that Hammond from Penn State took 10th at Big Tens. Meaning he also did not qualify so is not a quality win. I updated the seeding info for that. That helps Moreno.

 

[HGoat]

Im going to be **cking mad if they Give Macintosh the 2 seed over Kyven. I could see them doing it, too.

 

[Judoka]

Im going to be **cking mad if they Give Macintosh the 2 seed over Kyven. I could see them doing it, too.

I expect Kyven to get the #2 seed. In fact, I wouldn't be shocked if he got the #1 seed. I don't expect him to. But I could see how it could happen. There's zero chance he's below two and here's why. Look at the seeding criteria

• Head-to-head competition — 25 percent
  

• Quality wins — 20 percent
  
• Results against common opponents — 10 percent
  
• RPI — 10 percent
  
• Qualifying event placement — 10 percent
  
• CR — 10 percent
  
• Win % — 10 percent
  
• Number of matches contested at that weight class — 5 percent

"Bad losses" does not factor in, at all. And his one loss was really, really bad. So bad in fact that the wrestler he lost to didn't wrestle against a single other guy who will be at NCAAs. Not a one. That's how last year Kyven got the #5 seed while a wrestler with a similarly bad loss on their record, and fewer good wins, got #1. And it is also the reason I'm really worried about Moreno getting screwed over with a 4 or 5 seed.

Moreno is probably going to get penalized immensely for losing twice to the overwhelming favorite in the weight class, just like Gadson was penalized last year for losing multiple times to Schiller. Gadson isn't going to even be touched for losing to a scrub. What matters is his quality wins and his head to head results. And those put him ahead of everybody except Cox, who I think will get the #1 seed on the strength of having more top 10 wins.

 

[HGoat]

I expect Kyven to get the #2 seed. In fact, I wouldn't be shocked if he got the #1 seed. I don't expect him to. But I could see how it could happen. There's zero chance he's below two and here's why. Look at the seeding criteria


"Bad losses" does not factor in, at all. And his one loss was really, really bad. So bad in fact that the wrestler he lost to didn't wrestle against a single other guy who will be at NCAAs. Not a one. That's how last year Kyven got the #5 seed while a wrestler with a similarly bad loss on their record, and fewer good wins, got #1. And it is also the reason I'm really worried about Moreno getting screwed over with a 4 or 5 seed.

Moreno is probably going to get penalized immensely for losing twice to the overwhelming favorite in the weight class, just like Gadson was penalized last year for losing multiple times to Schiller. Gadson isn't going to even be touched for losing to a scrub. What matters is his quality wins and his head to head results. And those put him ahead of everybody except Cox, who I think will get the #1 seed on the strength of having more top 10 wins.

Thanks, Judoka. Was listening to the Flo radio Live earlier and they thought it was a possibility. Since Kyven got screwed on seeding last year, I thought there would be a good chance it happens this year, too!

Mike really needs the 2 or 3 seed. 4 or 5= bad bad news.

I wonder where they will put Earl at? He could go just about anywhere 2-10 I think. Depends upon how much merit they give brewer having 1 win over a top guy (earl) all year...