First off, there's a big difference between the "chances" of winning versus how "confident" you are of winning.
I would give ISU a 55% chance of winning the game, mostly because UNI loses their best player and the game is in Ames and we'll be opening the new and improved Jack Trice Stadium.
But my "confidence" in ISU winning the game isn't very high. In other words, it wouldn't surprise me one bit if UNI won.
IMO... ISU has the better players overall. Sure, UNI might have an individual player here or there that's better than their ISU counterpart, but overall, I'd say ISU's talent level as a team is quite a bit higher. It has gotten to be less so over the years though, as UNI is now getting a LOT of 4* kids that don't work out at their P5 school, so they transfer to UNI to play right away.
With that being said, then why would I not be very confident on an ISU win, right? The only word I can come up with is..... "coaching". Our guys will not be ready once again for this game IMO. I watch ISU play football, and it just boggles one's mind. We look like a complete mess out there.
Nobody seems to know where to line up, nobody seems to know the basic fundamentals of blocking, tackling, running routes, taking correct angles, playing the ball and making a play on the ball. And I'm being dead serious. It is abysmal. And no, I didn't notice any improvement in these areas last year on the offensive side with Mangino at the helm. I wish I would have, but I didn't.
This team is generally so unprepared it makes one wonder if they practice at all, or if they do, what they are working on? Numerous games last year, we just had guys running around on defense doing nothing. The OU game was a complete and utter embarrassment defensively for ISU. They could have put 100 pts on us that day if they had wished..... and over 1,000 yds of offense. That is how bad it was folks.
And that is why... if we lose to UNI, Rhoads and this entire staff wouldn't deserve to coach another day here IMO. Having a poor record is one thing, but when the team looks like a complete mess and has no idea what they are doing, that's an entirely different matter. I know Rhoads won't get fired midseason this year, but that doesn't mean it shouldn't happen. If we lose to UNI again, it will be a long, dark year of ISU football.