That's reasonable but I'm fairly certain Matt was gone even if Fred stayed. Or at least someone extremely well sourced that I talked to believes that.What I've posted above is fact, as relayed to me. The following is opinion -
Otz was brought back, by Hoiberg - not JP, knowing Hoiberg was likely leaving. Nothing was promised, but people aren't stupid and he knew he'd have a better chance at the job in that role than if he was still an assistant at UW. See the Romar comments. Also, Matt A. would not have left (even for St. John's) if Hoiberg was still the coach at ISU.
From Hoiberg's perspective, it maximized the chance that existing staff would be retained, it allowed more continuity while Hoiberg was out for surgery, it got 2016 recruiting off to a better start, helped reel in Noskowiak and if Otz didn't get the job, it'd give more options for ready made assistants to whoever did. The program was/is in a better place bringing TJ back for two months compared to if it didn't. And obviously he's proven himself if Hoiberg chose not to take an NBA job. There's really no downside from Hoiberg's perspective and it provided a built in potential successor this year or next, where there wasn't one before.
Matt A. saw that ISU was going through a traditional coaching search rather than giving the job to Otz and he knew that once that happened, the odds for Otz were worse. Matt A. put in a word for Otz to JP. He may or may not have heard something along the lines of JP is a big fan of Otz, but Leath wants to go through Parker before making any decisions, but he gave it to Rothstein in an attempt to put pressure on Leath to allow JP to do searches his normal way, which would have increased the odds for Otz and ensured that Mann, Byars and everyone else had jobs for 2016 and the players had maximum continuity.
That's my $0.02 on the whole thing.
Plus if Matt knew Fred was gone he'd certainly rather follow him to Chicago than be Otz's assistant.