Predict Our NCAA Tournament Seed

[every_yard]

I thought I would throw a poll out for predicting our NCAA tournament seed. A few nuggets:

Our current RPI is 13.
We currently have 6 Top 50 RPI wins with 4 regular season games left against the Top 50 (actually all 4 of those are Top 25 currently). K-State & Cinci could possibly sneak in and Tech could drop out.
We are currently 7-5 in Road/Neutral games.

Based on RPI forecast, our RPI be as follows based on finish (does not include B12 tourney):
Win out: 7-8
Lose 1: 11-12
Lose 2: 14-16
Lose 3: 18-20
Lose 4: 24-26
Lose 5: 34-36
Lose out: 46-48

 

[LindenCy]

We will end up a 4-6 seed. I'll guess 5, and I don't like it.

 

[mjhavlo76]

I will guess a 6 seed. What if we completely implode though (extremely unlikely that will happen), but if we are sitting at 19-20 wins, that 9-10 seed is likely. I would say, worst case scenario 10.

 

[CycloneJoe]

Beat : TCU Kansas St Texas Okie St
Lose : Baylor, WV Kansad

21-10 Win one lose on in the tournament 22-11 5 Seed

10-8 in Conference

I do think 3 of the 4 home games are locks Texas is the though one
Could steal Baylor game maybe go 22-9

 

[WastedTalent]

Beat : TCU Kansas St Texas Okie St
Lose : Baylor and WV

21-9 Win one lose on in the tournament 22-10 5 Seed

Forgot ku

 

[BigBake]

I'm going the dreaded 8/9 line. Purely my view (no science based numbers) but seems the committee has taken a more "what have you done lately" approach to seeding. Our early season wins (and even the conf ones) are losing some serious luster. If we can pull off an upset or two (and win the ones we should) maybe we sneak back up to 5 or less line.

 

[CyTwins]

5 seed seems most realistic right now

 

[awd4cy]

6 or a 7 seed.

 

[Gunnerclone]

6 or a 7 seed.

And this one...you're predicting our RPI to fall to the low 20's and possibly even 30?

Since 2005, the RPI predicted 363/526 (69%) teams within one of their actual seeds.

 

[LindenCy]

I'm going the dreaded 8/9 line. Purely my view (no science based numbers) but seems the committee has taken a more "what have you done lately" approach to seeding. Our early season wins (and even the conf ones) are losing some serious luster. If we can pull off an upset or two (and win the ones we should) maybe we sneak back up to 5 or less line.

I don't think we drop that far unless we implode. If we get to 10 wins in conference, I think it is good enough for at least a 6. We've got a lot of quality wins, no blowout losses, and only one "bad" loss.

 

[WastedTalent]

I said 6 seed when we lost to Baylor and Texas back to back. I'll stick with that.

 

[clones26]

This is obviously a bad day to ask this, if we win the next 3 and ask next Sunday I'm sure we'll be a 3 seed to most on here. I am thinking we end up a 4 or 5, but hoping we get it together for March as we showed last year all that really matters is winning in the NCAA tourney

 

[awd4cy]

And this one...you're predicting our RPI to fall to the low 20's and possibly even 30?

You do realize that the tourney committee doesn't just go through and seed everyone as is? 1-4 aren't all 1s, 4-8 aren't all 2s, etc. Also, I still see is losing Texas, @WVU, @Baylor, @KU

 

[CycoCyclone]

4 seed and it could have been so much higher

 

[Gunnerclone]

You do realize that the tourney committee doesn't just go through and seed everyone as is? 1-4 aren't all 1s, 4-8 aren't all 2s, etc. Also, I still see is losing Texas, @WVU, @Baylor, @KU

Yet 69% of the time that is what ends up happening according to the data. This isn't like my opinion I pulled that quote from the RPI history website.

 

[BigBake]

I don't think we drop that far unless we implode. If we get to 10 wins in conference, I think it is good enough for at least a 6. We've got a lot of quality wins, no blowout losses, and only one "bad" loss.

Yeah, I hope I'm wrong.

 

[WastedTalent]

The only way I could see it better than a 5, is if we win at least one remaining road game. Or if they go on a run in the Big 12 tournament, which I don't see as likely.

 

[fsanford]

I will guess a 6 seed. What if we completely implode though (extremely unlikely that will happen), but if we are sitting at 19-20 wins, that 9-10 seed is likely. I would say, worst case scenario 10.

With ISU's RPI, if we have 20 wins 6 or better.

 

[BigBake]

The only way I could see it better than a 5, is if we win at least one remaining road game. Or if they go on a run in the Big 12 tournament, which I don't see as likely.

You know, this is a good point. Right now with our depth I'm almost hoping to get bounced round 1 of Big 12 tourney and get rested/healthy for tournament. I'd much rather trade for a Sweet Sixteen or better type tourney run than end it like we did the last couple years.

 

[wonkadog]

I'm going the dreaded 8/9 line. Purely my view (no science based numbers) but seems the committee has taken a more "what have you done lately" approach to seeding. Our early season wins (and even the conf ones) are losing some serious luster. If we can pull off an upset or two (and win the ones we should) maybe we sneak back up to 5 or less line.

This is painfully obvious going 8/9.