Worst case scenario is a AAC/Big 12 hybrid conference. Not optimal but the world won't stop turning.
***Official Big 12 Expansion Thread '16***
- Thread starter cyclones500
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Worst case scenario is a AAC/Big 12 hybrid conference. Not optimal but the world won't stop turning.
Expansion without adding value to the package never ever made sense. The conference holds at ten then goes after the two Arizona schools when their GOR expire a year before the Big 12's. Have long felt this would be the final outcome. Hopefully, the league gets some additional 'jack' from the networks between now and then.
There are only three AAU schools in FBS that aren't in a P5 conference: Buffalo, Tulane, and Rice.
if the Big 12 explodes, there are only three AAU schools in that conference - Iowa State, Kansas, and Texas.
So if conferences are looking to expand after UT and OU bolt somewhere, KU and ISU would look to be more attractive options than some think. If Texas, Texas Tech, Oklahoma, and Oklahoma State make the Pac-16, like we thought was going to happen in 2010 and 2011, I think that Kansas and Iowa State could make an attractive two school package to the ACC. It's not a great geographic fit, but Louisville isn't either, and the ACC is more into basketball than any other major conference.
West Virginia could be an option for the SEC, perhaps with TCU to solidify the conference's foothold in the state of Texas. I would wonder about WVU to the ACC, but their academics aren't up to snuff.
If this happened, Kansas State and Baylor would just hop into the American Conference and lose P5 status.
In the flying thread, there is discussion on whether a modern day university president should be an academic or a businessman. IMO, either of those two is preferable to a politician, which is exactly what David Boren is. The quote in the Thamel article about Boren constantly needing to have is name in the paper is dead on.
I posted about this several months ago...I think a large part of Boren's expansion grandstanding is just to get him press to help him with his political battles in Oklahoma (he has a big one this fall...the state of Oklahoma is a financial mess, and Boren is spearheading a ballot measure to increase state sales taxes to fund education). I think he overplayed his hand...apart from the LandThieves crowd, a good number of OU supporters don't want expansion, but his tax measure looks to be doing well...
I posted about this several months ago...I think a large part of Boren's expansion grandstanding is just to get him press to help him with his political battles in Oklahoma (he has a big one this fall...the state of Oklahoma is a financial mess, and Boren is spearheading a ballot measure to increase state sales taxes to fund education). I think he overplayed his hand...apart from the LandThieves crowd, a good number of OU supporters don't want expansion, but his tax measure looks to be doing well...
I don't see any way Texas goes to another conference. If anything they are going independent like Notre Dame.
Can't really see why the Arizona schools would pack up and leave the Pac-12. What's the appeal? Pac-12 network has it's issues, but it's not like Big 12 can make a claim to greater stability. The majority of their recruiting, not to mention out-of-state student body, has to be west-coast based.
I think it's possible. It's all about money. In college sports, the SEC and Big Ten are rolling in money, the Big 12 is solidly third, and the Pac-12 and ACC lag behind.
The Big 12 has two of the top eight revenue-producing schools. The Pac-12 doesn't have any in the top 20.
Arizona and Arizona State are both top-half Pac-12 schools, but more than half of the public Big 12 schools (the two privates aren't included) bring in more cash than they do. They'd stand to improve in the Big 12.
http://sports.usatoday.com/ncaa/finances/
West coast teams from the Pac12 could benefit from being able to access the central time zone and the extra eyeballs that go with the TV slots available to conferences who play earlier in the day.
This is the main reason their revenues suffer--they are on TV after 80% of the watching public turns theirs off.
My crazy thoughts
ACC: Adds Texas like Notre Dame and Texas football is independent.
BIG: Kansas and UConn
SEC: Iowa State and West Virginia
PAC12: Oklahoma and Oklahoma State (SEC won't take both)
Iowa State(if not in SEC) with Kansas State
Remaining teams merge with AAC
Baylor/TCU - Religious private schools - not attractive to other conferences
Texas Tech - Texas is done carrying them with them
Kansas State - If somehow Iowa State gets SEC place, KU will not be able to convince BIG to take KSU with them. After all, the BIG would get a better fit school academically in ISU so why would they take KSU.
ACC: Adds Texas like Notre Dame and Texas football is independent.
BIG: Kansas and UConn
SEC: Iowa State and West Virginia
PAC12: Oklahoma and Oklahoma State (SEC won't take both)
Iowa State(if not in SEC) with Kansas State
Remaining teams merge with AAC
Baylor/TCU - Religious private schools - not attractive to other conferences
Texas Tech - Texas is done carrying them with them
Kansas State - If somehow Iowa State gets SEC place, KU will not be able to convince BIG to take KSU with them. After all, the BIG would get a better fit school academically in ISU so why would they take KSU.
The Pac 12 is not taking KSU, OSU (academic snobbery) or TCU, Baylor or BYU (religious snobbery) The Pac 12 will stand pat before expanding with those schools. It is not 2010 anymore and these guys (the California schools specifically) want nothing to do with this. If they cared, they would have fired Larry Scott and tried to find a way to make $$$ off of that trainwreck of a network that they have. Without bursting any bubles- especially those in the media, the 4x16 model is such a stretch to believe. There may well be four major conferences one day but there will be more than 64 schools involved.
Regardless, nothing is happening for five years. Nothing to see here
Regardless, nothing is happening for five years. Nothing to see here
I have no doubt this conference will fall apart in 2023. Our conference leadership is full of incompetence. I'm not looking forward to when that day comes.
Boren probably doesn't care about expanding because he figures why have another team eat into a piece of the pie? He figures he will have Oklahoma in the Big 10 or SEC in less than 10 years.
Yep. Pretty clear that Texas and OU are only for expansion as a quick money grab, but won't extend the GOR because they're likely to bolt in 2024
The ONLY play here for ISU is no expansion without GOR extension. Good for ISU for standing firm. Whatever happens was going to happen anyway without a GOR extension. These seeds were sewn 10 years ago.
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Boren is 75!!! He'll be dead by the time all this ends.
Ever run a business where your budget goes from $80m to $30m? It won't be pretty, and I feel badly for everyone involved with isu athletics.
Ever run a business where your budget goes from $80m to $30m? It won't be pretty, and I feel badly for everyone involved with isu athletics.
Texas and OU can probably maximize their revenue by joining the Big 10 and SEC conferences respectively, but they will need to ask do they want to be just another school and maybe even a secondary school (since they are the new kid) in those conferences.
I think the Pac 12/Big 12 consolidation discussions that almost happened in 2011 could come to fruition in 2023. IMO this would be a win/win for most members of each conference. The benefit as you mentioned is getting Pac 12 games played in the Central time zone where more eyeballs will see Pac 12 teams play and enhance their TV revenue potential. The other key will be getting prime TV slots. IMO the conference should play 1 night game on Thu, 2 night games on Friday and remaining games on Saturday. Currently, it is hit or miss on the quality of Thu/Fri night games, but if the new conference took ownership of those nights, it could be a great branding opportunity.
I also think a key in structuring the new conference is to allow schools to keep their 3rd tier rights. It can be a point of contention, but I also think it would be a point of differentiation in allowing schools like Texas, USC, UCLA, etc to maximize their TV rights revenue.
The downside, I don't think it is a given ISU would be part of the consolidation. However, we do enhance the TV market and visibility for the new conference in the upper Midwest. In the end, the PAC 12 has strong TV potential because of the large metro areas where most of their schools exist. Consolidation would create a very competitive conference along with strong academics. However, some state schools conference relationships would cease: Oregon St., Wash. State, Texas Tech and K-State
Pac 12 Schools (10)
- Washington - Seattle
- Oregon - Nike
- Stanford - No Cal
- California - No Cal
- UCLA - LA
- USC - LA
- Arizona - Hoops
- ASU - Phoenix
- Colorado - Denver
- Utah - SLC
- Texas - Austin
- TCU - Dallas
- OU - OKC
- OSU
- KU - KC/AAU/Hoops Tradition
- ISU - AAU
Huh? Boren graduated Phi Beta Kappa from Yale - in the top 1% of his class - then was a Rhodes Scholar at Oxford where he got his masters - that qualifies as an "academic" in my book..
