Kansas looked great against Texas Tech, that's the first game they've really dominated all conference season. I'm a little worried they're going to start hitting their stride. K State needs to win this game.
Kansas @ Kansas State
- Thread starter ForeverIowan
- Start date
Dale's post in the championship scenarios thread is why I'm cheering for KSU in this game. Definitely helps us the most according to odds. Can't have Kansas pick up a game on the road.
"Scenarios for the big two early-week games:
ISU over Oklahoma; KSU over Kansas:
Iowa St.: 60.0% (36.1% outright, 23.9% tied)
Kansas St.: 25.3% (11.1% outright, 14.2% tied)
Kansas: 24.8% (8.7% outright, 16.1% tied)
Baylor: 21.4% (8.9% outright, 12.5% tied)
Texas Tech: 10.2% (2.9% outright, 7.3% tied)
ISU over Oklahoma; Kansas over KSU:
Kansas: 52.6% (28.1% outright, 24.5% tied)
Iowa St.: 52.0% (28.2% outright, 23.9% tied)
Baylor: 18.0% (7.1% outright, 11.0% tied)
Texas Tech: 8.7% (2.3% outright, 6.4% tied)
Kansas St.: 8.2% (2.5% outright, 5.7% tied)
Oklahoma over ISU; KSU over Kansas:
Iowa St.: 35.8% (15.5% outright, 20.3% tied)
Kansas: 35.5% (14.6% outright, 20.9% tied)
Kansas St.: 33.3% (15.9% outright, 17.4% tied)
Baylor: 28.6% (12.9% outright, 15.8% tied)
Texas Tech: 14.6% (4.5% outright, 10.1% tied)
Oklahoma over ISU; Kansas over KSU:
Kansas: 65.7% (40.3% outright, 25.4% tied)
Iowa St.: 28.3% (10.6% outright, 17.7% tied)
Baylor: 23.2% (9.9% outright, 13.3% tied)
Texas Tech: 12.0% (3.4% outright, 8.6% tied)
Kansas St.: 11.0% (3.6% outright, 7.4% tied)"
"Scenarios for the big two early-week games:
ISU over Oklahoma; KSU over Kansas:
Iowa St.: 60.0% (36.1% outright, 23.9% tied)
Kansas St.: 25.3% (11.1% outright, 14.2% tied)
Kansas: 24.8% (8.7% outright, 16.1% tied)
Baylor: 21.4% (8.9% outright, 12.5% tied)
Texas Tech: 10.2% (2.9% outright, 7.3% tied)
ISU over Oklahoma; Kansas over KSU:
Kansas: 52.6% (28.1% outright, 24.5% tied)
Iowa St.: 52.0% (28.2% outright, 23.9% tied)
Baylor: 18.0% (7.1% outright, 11.0% tied)
Texas Tech: 8.7% (2.3% outright, 6.4% tied)
Kansas St.: 8.2% (2.5% outright, 5.7% tied)
Oklahoma over ISU; KSU over Kansas:
Iowa St.: 35.8% (15.5% outright, 20.3% tied)
Kansas: 35.5% (14.6% outright, 20.9% tied)
Kansas St.: 33.3% (15.9% outright, 17.4% tied)
Baylor: 28.6% (12.9% outright, 15.8% tied)
Texas Tech: 14.6% (4.5% outright, 10.1% tied)
Oklahoma over ISU; Kansas over KSU:
Kansas: 65.7% (40.3% outright, 25.4% tied)
Iowa St.: 28.3% (10.6% outright, 17.7% tied)
Baylor: 23.2% (9.9% outright, 13.3% tied)
Texas Tech: 12.0% (3.4% outright, 8.6% tied)
Kansas St.: 11.0% (3.6% outright, 7.4% tied)"
Which is why, despite the fact Iowa State won the tourney 3/4 years, Kansas still got the higher NCAA tourney seed, every year.
That certainly pushes this toward must win territory in terms of breaking the streak.
It would be great if KU ended 4th behind ISU, KSU and Baylor
Don't care. And there's still too much season left to know how either outcome would affect ISU. But when in doubt, root against KU.
I'm not sure what happened to K-State at Texas AM, but their seniors (Brown, Stokes, Wade) seem pretty tough to me.
Let's win at OU then I'll care about the K-State/KU game. If we lose, does it really matter? Kind of a toss-up who I dislike more/less. Who knows, maybe Baylor is the team to beat?
Let's win at OU then I'll care about the K-State/KU game. If we lose, does it really matter? Kind of a toss-up who I dislike more/less. Who knows, maybe Baylor is the team to beat?
Could be, although they have maybe the toughest schedule left - K State twice, at TT, @ ISU, and @ KU to close out the regular season. It feels like Scott Drew is pulling this off with smoke and mirrors, and it'll catch up with him.
K-State's beat writer is a Ku alum. He takes every opportunity to turn the knife.
Ku has dominated the series to a point where it wears on the players' mojo. Two wins were for the taking the last couple years in AFH that resulted in one shot loses.
Yes, this is the year if ever there was one. No doubt. K-State's seniors ought to have the pee-down-leg syndrome under control. They are healthy, finally. Ku is missing some parts. The gym will be rockin'. F-B-I should be loud and clear. But whether that's enough remains to be seen. Ku is favored by one.
Exactly, losing to KSU would be a huge blow in KU's hopes to win even just a share.
Also helps us out pretty immensely if we were to slip up against OU.
Well there you have it. Go Kansas State! Although I do think the computers vastly underrate K-State for whatever reason.
Games that Kansas is least likely to win the rest of the way on Barttovik...
38% @ Texas Tech
48% @ Kansas State
49% @ TCU
52% @ Oklahoma
69% @ Oklahoma State
77% H Kansas State
77% H Baylor
89% H Oklahoma State
90% H West Virginia
Remaining record projected at 5.89 - 3.11, but this drops to 5.37 - 3.63 with a loss on Tuesday. If they win against K-State, their win expectation is up to 6.41.
Ours is 6.06 - 2.94 remaining. Win? 6.49 wins. Loss? 5.49.
Iowa State wins, Kansas wins = +0.09 game lead for ISU
Iowa State wins, Kansas loses = +1.12 game lead for ISU
Iowa State loss, Kansas loss = +0.12 game lead for ISU
Iowa State loss, Kansas win = +0.92 game lead for Kansas
These two are big ones.
Good news -- they have five road games to go and only four at home.
Bad news -- we have the same.
They have to start dropping those most difficult road games up there for somebody else to win the conference. They start sweeping through them, and they win.
38% @ Texas Tech
48% @ Kansas State
49% @ TCU
52% @ Oklahoma
69% @ Oklahoma State
77% H Kansas State
77% H Baylor
89% H Oklahoma State
90% H West Virginia
Remaining record projected at 5.89 - 3.11, but this drops to 5.37 - 3.63 with a loss on Tuesday. If they win against K-State, their win expectation is up to 6.41.
Ours is 6.06 - 2.94 remaining. Win? 6.49 wins. Loss? 5.49.
Iowa State wins, Kansas wins = +0.09 game lead for ISU
Iowa State wins, Kansas loses = +1.12 game lead for ISU
Iowa State loss, Kansas loss = +0.12 game lead for ISU
Iowa State loss, Kansas win = +0.92 game lead for Kansas
These two are big ones.
Good news -- they have five road games to go and only four at home.
Bad news -- we have the same.
They have to start dropping those most difficult road games up there for somebody else to win the conference. They start sweeping through them, and they win.
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There's a morbid part of me that hopes that Kansas wins the conference and we finish second. However, the day after the season ends, Kansas is forced to vacate all of their wins and ISU wins the title.
This way, we can say the streak ended and the KU fan meltdown (especially their silly defenses of their program) would be fantastic.
This way, we can say the streak ended and the KU fan meltdown (especially their silly defenses of their program) would be fantastic.
My second choice for winning the conference is KState. So yes I want Kstate to win tuesday.
No way. That would just give KU fans the ability to say it wasn’t a legit conference title.
