Shayok Out tonight, Questionable for Sat

Cyclonepride

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the "luck" stat isnt actually measuring "luck". Its "the metric is saying this, but the results are saying this". To me, a good reason for that difference could be that the team isnt as good as the KP thinks it is.

Im sorry, no team with the kind of droughts we see routinely in games of several minutes without any sort of scoring, is a top 10 offense. I know some people treat KP like its some sort of basketball deity, but its not perfect.

That really doesn't make sense though- our terrible luck is resulting somehow in a really high offensive ranking? I could see that if our luck was tremendous.
 

alarson

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That really doesn't make sense though- our terrible luck is resulting somehow in a really high offensive ranking? I could see that if our luck was tremendous.

The opposite- us being overranked is creating a large difference between expected and results, giving us a very bad luck rating.
 
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Cyclonepride

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That’s not the contention. A team with a better KenPom offense than actual offense often leads to “bad luck” in KenPom.

That poster is looking at the wrong end of the court, but it is fair to say we’re one of the teams that has a disconnect between continuum metrics like KenPom and the situational ability to win P5 games. It’s good, but not the elite that it’s rated.

It's good enough to be highly ranked, as a team, on the season as a whole, through most metrics. The Negative Nancy's can't poo poo literally every poll, stat, and objective fact, can they?
 

Cydkar

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Apr 12, 2006
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If you look at Wiggy's high school team/tape, he was much more of a distributor and played second fiddle to multiple guys on that team. While his comments this offseason and mindset of "I'm going to the league no matter what" are somewhat selfish, I don't envy the kid going from distributor on a National Championship high school team to clear cut best player/number one option on a bad team then going to a bench role on that same team and having to navigate a situation you probably haven't been in since early in High School. Not excusing him by any means, but that's quite a roller coaster for a 19-20 year old kid being thrust into the limelight.
Coleman was the distributer on that team.
 
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Nader_uggghhh

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That seems like a very odd thing to call luck, but whatever.

Alarson is right in that luck measures the difference in expected outcome and actual outcome. Your point is that O and D ratings come from PPP which can't be argued with. Also correct.

Our luck rating is awful because we lose almost every close game. Combine that with blowing out teams more often than getting blown out and you get a horrendous luck rating.
 

huntt26

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Babb put up a 3 in this video. Doesn't mean he will play, but worth noting.

I didn't see Lindell in the video though

 

MK24Cy

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If he’s far from the main reason, what/who is the main reason?

Big 12 basketball is tough. In the overall sense, it’s understandable that all of our players would struggle. But Wigginton is getting starter minutes and a close second in usage during conference play despite being one of the more apathetic players on defense. Few things would help more than him playing to his potential as a lead guard on both ends, which imo he has yet to do.

Every one of our main 7 is culpable and need's to take a look in the mirror at this point. When I say far from the main reason, I just mean his share isn't any higher than anyone else's. You're welcome to feel differently, but the starters are the one's setting the tone for the first 8 minutes or so before Prohm usually subs for the first time and I have a hard time believing Wiggy's insertion in the lineup suddenly makes our defense fall apart or our offense go stale.

Unless the ESPN play by play is wrong, Wigginton wasn't in the game during the stretch at the end of the first half on Saturday when it went from 23-23 to 35-25 Texas and he wasn't in to start the second half when the game got out of hand and ballooned to a 20 point Texas lead in the first 4 minutes. I know that's just 1 game/example, but the starters were basically the only ones in for those stretches outside of Conditt for a few minutes to end the first half.
 

isutrevman

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I guess I don't get the Wigginton selfishness comments. His shot selection and turnover are no worse that Shayock and THT. If its more of an attitude thing in practice, then I could see Jacobson's point of view, but no one here would know that.
 

mustangcy

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Why would you start lard? What has he done to earn that?

Talley has an argument, George does too. and I think talley should. But lard has in no way shape or form earned a start with his conduct.

I know this is another one of this group think things here, but seriously?

Because he's one of the best players on the team and one of the most talented post's in the conference? I mean...really? You think Talley should start over Lard? Too each their own I guess but that's just crazy.
 
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FinalFourCy

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It's good enough to be highly ranked, as a team, on the season as a whole, through most metrics. The Negative Nancy's can't poo poo literally every poll, stat, and objective fact, can they?
I know you’re worried, but relax.

It is not being a Negative Nancy to call our offense good, but your understanding of the “luck” metric poor.

But on that note, pointing to KenPom and other metrics as the true measure of how innately good this team also frames the season as being a disappointment.
 
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ImJustKCClone

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Now, you just wrap a little tape around to cushion it. You learn these things when you break your toe dancing to "You're the One That I Want" with your BIL during a game of Just Dance.
More entertaining than mine - I kicked a packed suitcase on the floor in the dark living room, the night before a big trip. Yay me??
 

cloneteach

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Nov 19, 2009
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The opposite- us being overranked is creating a large difference between expected and results, giving us a very bad luck rating.

It is the difference between expected results and actual results. It is the result of winning in blowouts and losing close games, which would indicate that our record should be a little better than it is. Every metric rates ISU favorably. The fan base probably would as well without a couple of the close losses that realistically could have gone either way.
 
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MartinCy

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Jul 12, 2016
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Alarson is right in that luck measures the difference in expected outcome and actual outcome. Your point is that O and D ratings come from PPP which can't be argued with. Also correct.

Our luck rating is awful because we lose almost every close game. Combine that with blowing out teams more often than getting blown out and you get a horrendous luck rating.

The bolded is correct on what the luck rating is. You don't get "lucky" on what your adjusted offensive or defensive efficiency numbers are though. He is wrong in that assertion.

It is accurate to say we're leaving meat on the bone with the luck rating we have compared to our efficiency metrics, however.
 
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FinalFourCy

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Every one of our main 7 is culpable and need's to take a look in the mirror at this point. When I say far from the main reason, I just mean his share isn't any higher than anyone else's. You're welcome to feel differently, but the starters are the one's setting the tone for the first 8 minutes or so before Prohm usually subs for the first time and I have a hard time believing Wiggy's insertion in the lineup suddenly makes our defense fall apart or our offense go stale.

Unless the ESPN play by play is wrong, Wigginton wasn't in the game during the stretch at the end of the first half on Saturday when it went from 23-23 to 35-25 Texas and he wasn't in to start the second half when the game got out of hand and ballooned to a 20 point Texas lead in the first 4 minutes. I know that's just 1 game/example, but the starters were basically the only ones in for those stretches outside of Conditt for a few minutes to end the first half.
Your team generally goes as your best players and high usage guys go. Everyone makes in-game mistakes or gets beat, but Wigginton has had some real bad moments on defense. THT, Wigginton, and Shayok have struggled some in getting on the same page.
 

CycloneErik

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More entertaining than mine - I kicked a packed suitcase on the floor in the dark living room, the night before a big trip. Yay me??

I've broken mine in every way I can find. As a martial artist, against a few elbows.
Broke one walking into a desk. WebMD told me there was a chance that one was cancer, but probably just broken.
The most recent was about a year ago doing a lap in the gym. Brushed a medicine ball someone left on the floor. That one looked sweet, with the bruising and discoloration. Thing of beauty.
 
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IbSvU

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Most of the players on this team are the ****. Like, quite talented. Unfortunately, basketball is a team sport.

Sometimes it’s easier when there’s a guy way better than everyone else like Monte, Georges, Royce, etc. Leads to fewer pissing contests.
 
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fsanford

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You let Lard have numerous strikes, and now you may start guys who were involved in a locker room fight

My David Banner persona towards Prohm is turning into a Jereseib,

Seriously though this team probably lacked that leader that can say knock **** off..
Lots of talent, but lots of new guys playing their first season together..

 
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jbhtexas

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Oct 20, 2006
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Because he's one of the best players on the team and one of the most talented post's in the conference? I mean...really? You think Talley should start over Lard? Too each their own I guess but that's just crazy.

What is your definition of talent? Making highlight reel plays? Ok...he's got that.

Is it playing sound, fundamental basketball in such a way that doesn't leave his team vulnerable when he is on the floor? If so, not so much then.

Lard is gifted athlete who right now struggles with some basic basketball things that cause problems for his team when he is on the floor.
 

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