Early Thoughts On Next Season?

[BringBackJohnny]

Interesting stats thanks Surly! Love the numbers.

That is almost 60 pts per game between the 5 players listed.

If someone showed me this stat last spring and it showed Wigs and Cam only having 2 starts I would have never believed it.

I would have also not guessed THT would have double digit ppg. and be close to averaging 30 min.

 

[surly]

Interesting stats thanks Surly! Love the numbers

It's going to be nuts trying to figure the preseason ranking for next season because so much talent is leaving the conference. But this was a 'down' year too and TxT ends up in the final game. So, who knows?

 

[ScottyP]

for some reason, I am confident that we will be fine next season. We just need some guys to step up. I appreciate what Cam and Lindell did for the program, but i think we might improve as a team. Front court depth is fine. We just need one or two guys to take the reigns and be leaders. I'm usually pessimistic but I have a good feeling about next year's team.

 

[jbindm]

Agreed. Let's see how the roster finishes out. The roster as is is at least made up of P5 guys and not desperation moves.

Yep. If Prohm doesn't land an impact grad transfer or two then they'll need several guys to be ahead of schedule in their development to be competitive next year. But the dust won't totally settle for over a month with the transfer market. Should have a much better idea in about 4-6 weeks.

 

[RustShack]

It’s hard to say what players like Griffin, Lewis, and Conditt will do for us because we were so stacked they didn’t get much playing time. Most teams run 7-8 players regardless of how good the other players are.

We know what we have in Haliburton, SoYo, and Jacobson. It’s also pretty easy to assume Nixon will start and be a good player for us.

Conditt, Lewis, and Griffin will likely get more of a chance now.

Throw in Jackson, Anderson, and potentially the most talented guy on the team Leach.

Let’s see what we do with the remaining three scholarships, but I’d bet we are at least back in the tournament when it’s all said and done.

I also wouldn’t rule out Wigginton returning. Obviously he wants to go Pro, just like he did last year. Monte Morris planned on going Pro after his sophomore year(he said that before even playing a game with us) and he ended up sticking around.

 

[Sigmapolis]

I would take the heck out of that. I would consider that a virtual coup.

10-8 after everybody lost their minds over 9-9 in conference last year? Yes, please.

I know we lost a lot, but we have a lot of talent in reserve (on paper) and coming in. Plus, the conference is just losing a lot going into next season, if you look at it.

Every man on the first-team all-conference squad is gone.

I think Derek Culver is the only man on the second-team either not graduating for sure and/or not putting his name into the NBA draft. So that is 1/10 so far.

I think the only third-team guys back are Dotson, Doolitte, and Moretti.

That leaves so much room at the top. I could see the all-Big 12 team as something like...

Doston
Moretti
Haliburton
Clark
Azubuike

...which is very different from last year, obviously. Yes, calling my shot with Haliburton.

Something like #33 in the country would be like a 7-10 seed next season.

Quite the logjam at the top -- a three-way tie at 11-7 between Kansas, Texas Tech, and Baylor? I will give these projections, which are computer- and analytics-based, points for some boldness. The human rankings too often just repeat the standings from the previous season. I would agree that Kansas looks vulnerable again, but still a favorite, and I guess the model likes Baylor's returning talent as well as Beard and Drew as coaches. If Prohm can swing a #4 seed in Kansas City with what we have returning, then the haters should STFU forever.

 

[Hayes30]

I dont see how we even make the tournament at this point in time. Wigginton and THT dont come back theres no way this roster plus incoming class as it stands makes up for that scoring.

I have a feeling Lewis, Nixon, Jackson, and Leech will be more than enough to replace their scoring. I predict Lewis takes the Big 12 by storm.

 

[ForbinsAscynt]

The one thing that makes me optimistic is all the freshman and sophomores need to battle it out for playing time. This will lead to scrappy, at all costs type players and more importantly role players.

 

[FinalFourCy]

I dont see how we even make the tournament at this point in time. Wigginton and THT dont come back theres no way this roster plus incoming class as it stands makes up for that scoring.

It’s likely to have a drop off anytime you lose 5 or your top 7. 1st team All-Big 12 guys like Shayok are hard to come by.

Wigginton’s best attributes of 3P shooting and FTs can be replaced by perceived lesser players. What we hope THT would be next year will be missed, but what he was a year ago is upgradable.

 

[Sigmapolis]

It’s likely to have a drop off anytime you lose 5 or your top 7. 1st team All-Big 12 guys like Shayok are hard to come by.

Wigginton’s best attributes of 3P shooting and FTs can be replaced by perceived lesser players. What we hope THT would be next year will be missed, but what he was a year ago is upgradable.

You mean him driving into traffic and throwing his hands up like he got fouled, but really just turning it over and not getting back on defense, was NOT great basketball?

 

[IASTATE07]

I have a feeling Lewis, Nixon, Jackson, and Leech will be more than enough to replace their scoring. I predict Lewis takes the Big 12 by storm.

I'm really hoping Lewis can make a big jump. Good size and athleticism.

 

[ZB4CY]

I believe if we can land one of these good grad transfers we'll be a tournament team. I'd like to see 1 grad transfer and 1 sit out guy then probably take in a fresh.

 

[FinalFourCy]

You mean him driving into traffic and throwing his hands up like he got fouled, but really just turning it over and not getting back on defense, was NOT great basketball?

No, but also maybe.

It was potentially the worst part of an on-average very efficient offense. How improved is the offense if those possessions are converted to systematically creating looks, not to mention more readily able to get back on defense? I’m optimistic a few players of average handle, passing, and good shooting can effectively replace the combined 24 points in 52 minutes on 19 FGA. More of a Naz, Hogue, and Thomas offense, with the benefit of also staying in front of guys on defense (with Conditt to erase mistakes).

But defenses are good so there’s implicit value in the relatively high failure rate of guys like Wigginton (maybe even THT, but much less so). Short of finely tuned team ball, how stagnant does an offense become if guys like Wigginton, Shayok, or maybe THT don’t force the issue?

 

[Halincandenza]

It’s likely to have a drop off anytime you lose 5 or your top 7. 1st team All-Big 12 guys like Shayok are hard to come by.

Wigginton’s best attributes of 3P shooting and FTs can be replaced by perceived lesser players. What we hope THT would be next year will be missed, but what he was a year ago is upgradable.

I would say in theory, what you said is true. In reality, the odds are against those guys being replaced by better players.

 

[FinalFourCy]

1.) I would say in theory, what you said is true. 2.) In reality, the odds are against those guys being replaced by better players.

1.) The cone is wide for not only ISU, but the Big 12 right now, although odds are that the season goes poorly when so many guys are stepping up into prominent P5 roles for the first time, like it did for Babb, DJ, Wigginton, Lard, and Young in 2017-18. Next year we return more than 2017-18 imo, with Haliburton, Jacobson, Young, and even Conditt and Lewis having some tangible experience. Nixon should be more prepared than Wigginton as a freshman.

2.) My contention was that they don’t need to be replaced by what most would claim as “better” players (although the bar isn’t high for THT). Royce was probably the most talented player in a generation, but we were able to improve on offense without him (and Scotty) the next year. We were better overall after losing Kane and Ejim, having a more complete team adding lesser college players in BDJ, Nader, and McKay. Better overall after losing Georges, Nader, McKay (adding Long, and role players in DJ, Babb, Young). Guys step up and you win differently. This team under-performed imo, allowing for an over-performance next year closing the would be "drop-off:.


Losing so many contributors will be harder to replace than losing any of them individually imo. If either Shayok or Wigginton were back, it’s a significantly different outlook.

-Lard was already essentially gone.
-THT was inconsistent, valuable when on as a 3P shooter, unplayable at other times. Imo his biggest value was positionally/scheme based.
-Babb was steady, but the fact we couldn’t afford to rest him is indicative of what we lacked with THT, Wigginton, and even Shayok.

 

[AuH2O]

1.) The cone is wide for not only ISU, but the Big 12 right now, although odds are that the season goes poorly when so many guys are stepping up into prominent P5 roles for the first time, like it did for Babb, DJ, Wigginton, Lard, and Young in 2017-18. Next year we return more than 2017-18 imo, with Haliburton, Jacobson, Young, and even Conditt and Lewis having some tangible experience. Nixon should be more prepared than Wigginton as a freshman.

2.) My contention was that they don’t need to be replaced by what most would claim as “better” players (although the bar isn’t high for THT). Royce was probably the most talented player in a generation, but we were able to improve on offense without him (and Scotty) the next year. We were better overall after losing Kane and Ejim, having a more complete team adding lesser college players in BDJ, Nader, and McKay. Better overall after losing Georges, Nader, McKay (adding Long, and role players in DJ, Babb, Young). Guys step up and you win differently. This team under-performed imo, allowing for an over-performance next year closing the would be "drop-off:.


Losing so many contributors will be harder to replace than losing any of them individually imo. If either Shayok or Wigginton were back, it’s a significantly different outlook.

-Lard was already essentially gone.
-THT was inconsistent, valuable when on as a 3P shooter, unplayable at other times. Imo his biggest value was positionally/scheme based.
-Babb was steady, but the fact we couldn’t afford to rest him is indicative of what we lacked with THT, Wigginton, and even Shayok.

This is a good summary and captures the reality of college basketball in general. While I think 2017-18 was not going to be a good year anyway, I think what gets lost a bit is that once Weiler-Babb was inserted as the primary PG the team played well and won quite a few games. Obviously most of that was against bad non-con teams, but they played fairly well early in conference. Once NWB was either limited by injury or out, the team was bad. It was bad at the start of the season when DJ was trying to play that role. Obviously once NWB and Young shut it down for the year, not to mention DJ's absence, the wheels completely fell off. So in addition to your point that ISU brings back more than they did in 2017-2018, I also think 2017-18 was really had some disastrous injury luck as well.

 

[Sigmapolis]

This is a good summary and captures the reality of college basketball in general. While I think 2017-18 was not going to be a good year anyway, I think what gets lost a bit is that once Weiler-Babb was inserted as the primary PG the team played well and won quite a few games. Obviously most of that was against bad non-con teams, but they played fairly well early in conference. Once NWB was either limited by injury or out, the team was bad. It was bad at the start of the season when DJ was trying to play that role. Obviously once NWB and Young shut it down for the year, not to mention DJ's absence, the wheels completely fell off. So in addition to your point that ISU brings back more than they did in 2017-2018, I also think 2017-18 was really had some disastrous injury luck as well.

Here was our first eight Big 12 games that season (the ones prior to Tennessee)...



After Texas, Nick shut it down and the downward spiral started.

What if we win those two OT games and somehow take a bite out of KU in Lawrence? We were close enough. We had it at 3, 4, or 5 most of the second half.

At that point, we would have been...

14-5 (5-3) in the Big 12

The UW-Milwaukee home loss would have still been a black mark on the CV, but a few road Big 12 wins, and especially one in Lawrence, would make up for that.

If we take those "coin flip" and stay healthy from there...

Not saying we would have won the Big 12 tournament or made a deep run in the NCAA tournament, but that team had some potential. You could feel they were starting to figure a system, rotation, and how to play together out about that point.

Then Nick got hurt and, like you said, it all just went to hell.

 

[FinalFourCy]

This is a good summary and captures the reality of college basketball in general. While I think 2017-18 was not going to be a good year anyway, I think what gets lost a bit is that once Weiler-Babb was inserted as the primary PG the team played well and won quite a few games. Obviously most of that was against bad non-con teams, but they played fairly well early in conference. Once NWB was either limited by injury or out, the team was bad. It was bad at the start of the season when DJ was trying to play that role. Obviously once NWB and Young shut it down for the year, not to mention DJ's absence, the wheels completely fell off. So in addition to your point that ISU brings back more than they did in 2017-2018, I also think 2017-18 was really had some disastrous injury luck as well.

That year Hans, Jakolby Long, Beverly, and Lewis played nearly 20% of the conference minutes. Even fully available we were besieged by inconsistency that requires ample talent to overcome, but things tanked when adversity set in.

We should not be that bad on defense.
I’m concerned the offense will be as poor (Kenpom #81), but as you mentioned, we went 10-12 games without a pg, which also meant some slippage at sg/wing with DJ and Wigginton struggling to be both.

Can we become a good defensive and rebounding team that shoots 3Ps well and apt at getting buckets in transition? We’ve got a chance if we land a guard that can score, or at least shoot and defend...and/or or a small ball four that can shoot.

 

[Sigmapolis]

We’ve got a chance if we land a guard that can score, or at least shoot and defend...and/or or a small ball four that can shoot.

Either that or we find out we actually already have one on the roster.

Nixon could be the 3&D guy that you want, or you might have already been depending on him. Him stepping up his 3PT% would be nice. Hopefully playing within the context of a balanced offense and not needing to chuck will do that for him.

Lewis and Griffin match your description of a small-ball wing who can shoot... Assuming either of them play up to their rankings. Manny Leech could be that guy, as well.

 

[Sigmapolis]

@FinalFourCy

The great irony -- last year, our problem was we had three volume wing scorers. The offense could be fluid, but there was definitely a lot of YOLO chuckin' going on, too.

We never quite got them to play together smoothly or at least consistently (worked well in Kansas City as a group, however), even if the offense was still really good.

Next year, our problem is that is we have zero of them proven at the high-major level.

We are unlikely to bring in somebody you can build the offense around, like we were probably "planning" to do assuming one of Wigginton or Horton-Tucker was coming back. Oh well, like you said, we just have to find another identity and way to win.

Just having one of those three back would change things a lot.