UNI Q&A -- Jay Jordan

madguy30

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We open with 3 down, and I suspect we will see some 4 down on 3rd and short and perhaps on obvious passing downs. I think the four down look will be primarily to get Jamahl Johnson in on more plays and perhaps to get some pass rushers on the field.

The 4 down will be seen more often this year, but will relate to the opponents formations and primary run plays. But, I could see them being in 4 down as much as 25% of the time.

Is someone like Will McDonald versatile enough to be used as a 4th down lineman if ISU comes out in a 3, but adjusts to the formation to get to 4 on a whim?
 

JJIII

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Would you be more surprised with our offense getting off to a fast start, or not being able to establish a rhythm until the 3rd quarter?
My gut tells me that the primary question the offensive staff wants to answer is --- where is the progression of the offensive line? Are they building on the sporadic dominance shown against KST and Wazzu, or are we still in a talent gap mitigation mode.

That said, early I believe you will see quick pass sets and a heavy dose of run, though, more stretch, sweep, counter, and outside zone than straight inside zone. Because of that and the UNI exuberance, it is possible that a slow start is in the cards.

But, I, being more invested in the talent gap and the prospects for this game than others, do not believe that lasts more than a quarter. Primarily because there will be multiple opportunities because I do not believe UNI will be efficient at moving the ball and keeping the offense off the field.
 

JJIII

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What are your predictions for total rushing yards from each team?
I do not believe UNI will rush for more than 100 yards and would put them in the 75 yard slot.

Iowa State is a bit of a mystery, but I think they need to be in the 140 to 160 yard range to be successful this season. If the line has made the progress I believe they have, then Iowa State should be in the 180 yard range plus or minus 20.

Implicit in that response is the belief that the running backs are better than anticipated. I think Johnnie Lang will surprise fans with his ability and Breece Hall will have a power/speed combination that portends of good things to come.
 

cyclonespiker33

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What kind of offense does UNI run: is it run-heavy, quick passes, deep drop backs?

Will JaQuan Bailey become the all-time leader in sacks during this game?
 

cyowan

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Is it going to rain all day, Jay?

Need to know.
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ArgentCy

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I know that Woody was talking about how you two watching a game would be seeing things that the rest of us would not.

How can the average person tell, or what should we really be looking for to see if the O-Line is really improved and getting push in the run game? What will you be looking at? I really think the o-line run blocking will be very telling / important this year.
 
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JJIII

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Can/should we disguise/mix our defensive alignments in an attempt to confuse their true freshman quarterback?
That is done each week in the Iowa State system.

An important note of observation. In 2017, Iowa State was not as talented, especially in the secondary, as they appear to be this season. Therefore, we observed a healthy dose of 8 man drop coverage. However, the way they dropped narrowed the windows for completions and required greater accuracy on the part of the opposing qb. In 2018, Iowa State utilized more disguised pressure packages and rolled coverage with some combo man to great effect. Consider the West Virginia game as an example.

We will see and I have nothing but my critical thinking and film from last year to base this on, but over the course of the season, I think that we will see a beat of TCU type press coverage on the outside with Johnson in particular which will free up rushers and provide a platform for coverage switches in the balance of the scheme. If so, there is a high likelihood that confusion occurs.

But, I am expected a pretty standard coverage look in this game because the secondary is simply better and in order to solidify base coverage and personnel before the bye week.
 

JJIII

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Will UNI score against this defense?
It isn't easy for teams outside of OSU and OU to score on this defense. It is my personal belief that this defense is poised to topple TCU as the top defense in the league. For two seasons running the defense is giving up under 24 points a game to league opponents and I expect that number to decline again in 2019.

UNI should and will have a difficult time sustaining drives and scoring the football. Period. A shut out is unlikely if the offense cooperates and allows for a margin that places the second team with meaningful reps. Either way, I think field goals will be the order of the day.

That said, I will be watching closely to see how UNI moves the ball, what weaknesses they seek to exploit, and if they score at any sort of normal clip, why that is the case and if there is a reason to tamp down expectations going forward.
 

JJIII

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Is someone like Will McDonald versatile enough to be used as a 4th down lineman if ISU comes out in a 3, but adjusts to the formation to get to 4 on a whim?
Great question and I do not know the answer to that. I believe his primary skill set is as a pass rusher. The move to linebacker takes him away from the traditional alignment for such. I believe the staff will put him in a position to utilize his primary skill set, so I do think it is possible to see him with his hand in the dirt in a 4 man front, or played down in an attack position in a 3 man set.

Watching his progression and ability will be fascinating and worth focusing your eyes on him when you see him in the game.
 

JJIII

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I know that Woody was talking about how you two watching a game would be seeing things that the rest of us would not.

How can the average person tell, or what should we really be looking for to see if the O-Line is really improved and getting push in the run game? What will you be looking at? I really think the o-line run blocking will be very telling / important this year.
Well, since I only write books in post-game analysis, I will try to give just a few bright line things here.

Hats and hand placement, line of scrimmage reset, individual bust versus synchronization, balance, and backfield interference.

Start by looking at the Cyclone helmets, are they lower across the board than the UNI helmets, then move down to their hands, are they inside on the chest plate. If the hats are lower and the hands are inside, then results will follow.

Then watch for leaning versus balanced, grounded footwork. If the lineman is leaning he will lose contact and leverage, be pulled forward or back, or be tossed aside because his base is compromised with a single foot contact point. If those feet are drum rolling to the ground in a balanced position then it is more likely that the block is sustained through the particular level on which they are blocking.

Start there. Hats and hands and balance and sustaining the blocks. If those are present collectively or in 4 of the 5 and the bust is not at the attack point, then there will be progress and yards to gain.
 

iowastatefan1929

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We could hardly run the ball without Montgomery last year. And how many times was the ball thrown up to Lazard and Butler the last few years for huge catches in crucial situations. What will the offense look like this year? Also toward the end of the year the offense seemed to get stale on formations and motions etc. Did you also notice that and we will see motion come back this year and TEs play a more crucial part of the equation?
 
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JJIII

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I'm damn near ready to throw up reading all of this I'm so ******* nervous/excited. I want so badly for this to be another magical season, but afraid to buy in just yet. I've got the nut cup on standby.
Let me help if I can. First, you are right to be cautious. UNI is always a salty foe.

But, I have asked myself this. Who, on the depth chart, both first and second team, is not a legitimate Big 12 player?

There are certainly some that have an incomplete in that regard, but those are primarily skill position players who are highly regarded talents.

In the past years, the two deeps were littered with players that were of a similar skill set by play and reputation as those lining up from UNI. I do not believe that to be the case this year. UNI has a handful of players with enough developmental talent to be in the mix at Iowa State, but I would take their Iowa State counterpart in each instance.

For perhaps the first time in the 14 meetings during Farley's control of UNI, the talent disparity is pronounced and as it should be. Iowa State does not play a style of football that yields to lesser talent, especially defensively. Therefore, my expectation is that Iowa State plays and performs up to the level of that disparity.

One thing to watch is how bland they play and how the weather affects the play. But, I do not expect Drake conditions or a commensurate blandness. I think Coach Campbell has the team ready to roll and will do so decisively.
 

JJIII

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We could hardly run the ball without Montgomery last year. And how many times was the ball thrown up to Lazard and Butler the last few years for huge catches in crucial situations. What will the offense look like this year? Also toward the end of the year the offense seemed to get stale on formations and motions etc. Did you also notice that and we will see motion come back this year and TEs play a more crucial part of the equation?
Excellent observation and a point of frustration. A great leap of faith is being placed in the quality of quarterback play, progression of the experienced line, and talent of unproven players.

Motion is here to stay with this staff. It did become predictable last season and I have several theories on that. The interesting twist in the equation is the re-insertion of Tom Manning in to the offensive mix. The lack of a designated coordinator was apparent last season, though it is important to understand that the Campbell method is a collective schematic effort between all coaches on both sides of the ball.

That said, my latest article provided some examples from the Alamo Bowl that were a departure from the norm in formation, attack point, and execution. I think they are omens of what is to come which means we will see more unbalanced looks with both pass and run implications. The ability to attack the mid-range in between the hashes will be enhanced by Milton and Jones and the TE's which will open up alignment opportunities to run the ball to the edge.

Oklahoma State is a good game to reference. It was played without Montgomery. The running game focused outside of the tackles and in counter as pivot away from the conservative "I know what I am getting with the ball in Montgomery's hands" approach. Watch that game on Youtube and read my last piece and I think you can get a feel for what we should and will see.
 
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JJIII

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What kind of offense does UNI run: is it run-heavy, quick passes, deep drop backs?

Will JaQuan Bailey become the all-time leader in sacks during this game?
UNI runs a multiple offense which means they attack in multiple styles in both the run and pass game. They like to stretch the field vertically and run via delayed handoffs and will implement some option and RPO's as well. With the new quarterback, I think you will see comfortable passes early and a healthy dose of read option and RPO's.

The question will be, can ISU limit the effectiveness of the run game in order to force the new quarterback in to passing situations where he may not be prepared to handle ISU's sophisticated coverage scheme.

If passing downs are produced through the play against the run, then JaQuan will have opportunities to pin his ears back and get after the quarterback. Iowa State gets sacks from a lot of different places and players, so it is hard to say how many JaQuan can achieve. Watch his play recognition, especially against read option plays and see if his reads are sound. If so, then he will have a chance to become a truly complete player at his position and it will be a good sign moving forward.
 

JJIII

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Do you think our defensive line or defensive backfield was more responsible for controlling the pass last year?
There was less time to throw last year and the secondary, in particular the safeties, provided sound coverage on the back end. So, the answer is neither and both. If pressed, the improved play of the safeties was the primary reason for the increased efficiency and that will remain very important in 2019.
 
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JJIII

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1st game of the year, vs a tough, motivated in-state opponent. Will you be concerned for the rest of the season if the game is close throughout?
I won't be concerned for the rest of the season. This team has a bowl eligible floor. That would be disappointing to some degree, but I will not be among those that will complain about a winning season be that 7,8, or more wins. I am most exuberant about the upside and the opportunity to be more than what is on paper and what is expected. The team under Campbell has overachieved in light of its talent and the adversity faced in each of the last three seasons. I have no evidence, in the Campbell era, to suggest that a regression to the mean is in the cards

That said, a poor performance here is of no concern, unless it is a loss. The next week is a bye week. While I believe a dominant performance and fine tuning during the bye is the best case scenario for the season prospects, I am will not be disappointed with a less dominant performance that leads to a grinding, get your crap together, week of practices. There is upside to either scenario thanks to the scheduling quirk.
 
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