2012 committment

StLouisClone

Well-Known Member
Apr 16, 2006
8,025
580
113
St. Louis
I find it more troubling when the D1 talent in Iowa goes out of state. I heard this kid could dunk in 7th grade. He could be the next Harrison Barnes. Why not get a commitment early? It allows the player and staff to focus less effort on recruiting and more effort on developing the talent they have.
 

kucyclone

Well-Known Member
Jan 16, 2008
2,647
128
63
Seattle
Why not get a commitment early?

Ah, thanks for asking. What happens if the kid gets injured and/or doesn't develop, and becomes a mid-major or low-major type player? McDermott has offered him a scholarship and committed to him, just as the kid has committed to ISU. A coach will look like a poor recruiter if he takes the kid and essentially wastes the scholarship at that point. Conversely, if the coach doesn't honor the scholarship offer, his loyalty and committment to his recruits will be questioned and other coaches recruiting against him will eat that up.

The kid is 14. Think back to when you were 14. You were a dumb***. I know that I was. There was no way I was in a position to decide where I wanted to go to college at that age.
 
Last edited by a moderator:

jhill

Active Member
Apr 10, 2006
490
38
28
Ah, thanks for asking. What happens if the kid gets injured and/or doesn't develop, and becomes a mid-major or low-major type player? McDermott has offered him a scholarship and committed to him, just as the kid has committed to ISU. A coach will look like a poor recruiter if he takes the kid and essentially wastes the scholarship at that point. Conversely, if the coach doesn't honor the scholarship offer, his loyalty and committment to his recruits will be questioned and other coaches recruiting against him will eat that up.

The kid is 14. Think back to when you were 14. You were a dumb***. I know that I was. There was no way I was in a position to decide where I wanted to go to college at that age.

60% or more of recruiting is a crap shoot. There are very few sure things...between injuries, academics, getting in trouble. If McDermott and his staff have seen the kid play, spent time with him, etc. -- why not offer? Especially in basketball, where the kids are playing all levels of competition with AAU ball.
 
Last edited by a moderator:

BryceC

Well-Known Member
SuperFanatic
SuperFanatic T2
Mar 23, 2006
26,462
19,624
113
Was this kid at the Skills camp last summer? How does he play?
 

kucyclone

Well-Known Member
Jan 16, 2008
2,647
128
63
Seattle
60% or more of recruiting is a crap shoot. There are very few sure things...between injuries, academics, getting in trouble. If McDermott and his staff have seen the kid play, spent time with him, etc. -- why not offer? Especially in basketball, where the kids are playing all levels of competition with AAU ball.

60% or more? Talk about throwing a number out of nowhere. What does that even mean? I guess when you are recruiting freshmen, recruiting is a crapshoot, which is my point exactly. However, once these kids become juniors and seniors, there's typically a pretty good correlation between their recruiting rankings and their individual and team success.

For example:
2002 Winners
2003 Winners
2004 Winners
2005 Winners
2006 Winners

You can see pretty good correlation here. Looking at guys at the top of these classes, many are in the NBA are/were their team's leaders. Looking at recruiting class rankings you can see a significant correlation. For instance, UNC had the #2 class in 2002 and the #2 player that went to college in 2004 and turned it into a Championship in 2005. Kansas had the #3 class in 2004, the #1 class in 2005, and the #10 class in 2006 before winning the championship in 2008. Florida had a top 10 class in 2004 that got them two championships, as well.

So while recruiting may be a little bit of a crapshoot, generally there tends to be a strong correlation between recruit rankings and individual/team success.

I don't want to seem like I'm being too hard on McDermott here. I know other coaches are doing the same thing. I just think the system, where 14 year olds kids choose their collegiate future, needs to be changed. 14 years old. I just can't get that out of my mind when thinking about this.
 

jhill

Active Member
Apr 10, 2006
490
38
28
60% or more? Talk about throwing a number out of nowhere. What does that even mean? I guess when you are recruiting freshmen, recruiting is a crapshoot, which is my point exactly. However, once these kids become juniors and seniors, there's typically a pretty good correlation between their recruiting rankings and their individual and team success.

For example:
2002 Winners
2003 Winners
2004 Winners
2005 Winners
2006 Winners

You can see pretty good correlation here. Looking at guys at the top of these classes, many are in the NBA are/were their team's leaders. Looking at recruiting class rankings you can see a significant correlation. For instance, UNC had the #2 class in 2002 and the #2 player that went to college in 2004 and turned it into a Championship in 2005. Kansas had the #3 class in 2004, the #1 class in 2005, and the #10 class in 2006 before winning the championship in 2008. Florida had a top 10 class in 2004 that got them two championships, as well.

So while recruiting may be a little bit of a crapshoot, generally there tends to be a strong correlation between recruit rankings and individual/team success.

I don't want to seem like I'm being too hard on McDermott here. I know other coaches are doing the same thing. I just think the system, where 14 year olds kids choose their collegiate future, needs to be changed. 14 years old. I just can't get that out of my mind when thinking about this.

Yup -- it was just pulled out of the air. It means that in my opinion, a majority of recruits have question marks. Sure, you can give me the Dukes, UNCs, UTs and KUs that have very, very high hit rates. But, these guys also can all afford to wait until a guy becomes a McD's All American and then offer. Iowa State clearly doesn't have that advantage. The only way they might get some of these studs is to be on them early and be one of the first, if not the first, to offer.

You think they should have waited until Barnes was a junior or senior to offer him? How about Dykstra? This kid is already getting hyped nationally and playing against tough AAU competition. He is already over 6' tall, so he is already has the height to play point guard in college.

I have no problems with McDermott, who is clearly a great evaluator of talent (based on how many guys nationwide have blown up after he offers), making these offers.
 

jhill

Active Member
Apr 10, 2006
490
38
28
60% or more? Talk about throwing a number out of nowhere. What does that even mean? I guess when you are recruiting freshmen, recruiting is a crapshoot, which is my point exactly. However, once these kids become juniors and seniors, there's typically a pretty good correlation between their recruiting rankings and their individual and team success.

For example:
2002 Winners
2003 Winners
2004 Winners
2005 Winners
2006 Winners

You can see pretty good correlation here. Looking at guys at the top of these classes, many are in the NBA are/were their team's leaders. Looking at recruiting class rankings you can see a significant correlation. For instance, UNC had the #2 class in 2002 and the #2 player that went to college in 2004 and turned it into a Championship in 2005. Kansas had the #3 class in 2004, the #1 class in 2005, and the #10 class in 2006 before winning the championship in 2008. Florida had a top 10 class in 2004 that got them two championships, as well.

So while recruiting may be a little bit of a crapshoot, generally there tends to be a strong correlation between recruit rankings and individual/team success.

I don't want to seem like I'm being too hard on McDermott here. I know other coaches are doing the same thing. I just think the system, where 14 year olds kids choose their collegiate future, needs to be changed. 14 years old. I just can't get that out of my mind when thinking about this.

Yup -- it was just pulled out of the air. It means that in my opinion, a majority of recruits have question marks. Sure, you can give me the Dukes, UNCs, UTs and KUs that have very, very high hit rates. But, these guys also can all afford to wait until a guy becomes a McD's All American and then offer. Iowa State clearly doesn't have that advantage. The only way they might get some of these studs is to be on them early and be one of the first, if not the first, to offer. And by the way, why would you ever compare recruiting to Iowa State with Duke, UNC, KU, UT, etc. Talk about meaningless comparisons.

You think they should have waited until Barnes was a junior or senior to offer him? How about Dykstra? This kid is already getting hyped nationally and playing against tough AAU competition. He is already over 6' tall, so he is already has the height to play point guard in college.

I have no problems with McDermott, who is clearly a great evaluator of talent (based on how many guys nationwide have blown up after he offers), making these offers.
 

kucyclone

Well-Known Member
Jan 16, 2008
2,647
128
63
Seattle
You think they should have waited until Barnes was a junior or senior to offer him? How about Dykstra? This kid is already getting hyped nationally and playing against tough AAU competition. He is already over 6' tall, so he is already has the height to play point guard in college.

I have no problems with McDermott, who is clearly a great evaluator of talent (based on how many guys nationwide have blown up after he offers), making these offers.

Like I said, my complaint is more with the system as a whole. I realize that coaches in situations like McDermott have to do this type of thing to keep up. I don't think that McDermott should stop doing it, because he's got to try to keep up with the Coach Cals and Coach Floyds of the world that are offering 8th graders. I think it's more of a moral wrong, where coaches are pressuring 14 year olds to make college decisions. Coaching turnover is higher now than it has ever been. Who knows if the coach that promised you a scholarship will still be there 5 years down the road? And on the back end, there is potential for a coach to make a difficult decision: waste a scholarship on a kid who hasn't progressed as the coaches thought; or break your promise to the kid.

Obviously, the coaches aren't going to be the ones to change this system. They're all offering kids early because every other coach is offering kids early, and they want any advantage they can get. I'm not sure what the NCAA could or should do, but something needs to be done.

They're 14 years old. I just can't help but come back to that.
 

CyinCo

Well-Known Member
Mar 24, 2006
5,745
254
63
Clive, IA
McD needs to gamble. When we are regular visitors to the elite 8 and then we won't have to gamble. But for now, this is the cards we have been dealt.
 

cybsball20

Well-Known Member
Nov 26, 2006
12,735
438
83
Des Moines, IA
It's definately a crap shoot. When I was 14 my AAU team placed 4th at nationals. Of the guys on that team, three went on to play D1, mostly at small schools. Most went on to play other sports and some didn't even still play basketball in HS. I was a 6'3" center, ended up a 6'5" wing... Alot can change!
 

cyismydog

Well-Known Member
Apr 13, 2006
6,340
213
63
Ah, thanks for asking. What happens if the kid gets injured and/or doesn't develop, and becomes a mid-major or low-major type player? McDermott has offered him a scholarship and committed to him, just as the kid has committed to ISU. A coach will look like a poor recruiter if he takes the kid and essentially wastes the scholarship at that point. Conversely, if the coach doesn't honor the scholarship offer, his loyalty and committment to his recruits will be questioned and other coaches recruiting against him will eat that up.

The kid is 14. Think back to when you were 14. You were a dumb***. I know that I was. There was no way I was in a position to decide where I wanted to go to college at that age.
Trust me...Wesley Staten will be a top 25 player when it is all said and done.
 

Knownothing

Well-Known Member
Nov 22, 2006
16,649
8,718
113
51
Ah, thanks for asking. What happens if the kid gets injured and/or doesn't develop, and becomes a mid-major or low-major type player? McDermott has offered him a scholarship and committed to him, just as the kid has committed to ISU. A coach will look like a poor recruiter if he takes the kid and essentially wastes the scholarship at that point. Conversely, if the coach doesn't honor the scholarship offer, his loyalty and committment to his recruits will be questioned and other coaches recruiting against him will eat that up.

The kid is 14. Think back to when you were 14. You were a dumb***. I know that I was. There was no way I was in a position to decide where I wanted to go to college at that age.

What if he developes into an McDonalds All American and we lose him because Kansas comes calling? Sometimes in life you have to take a chance.
 
  • Like
Reactions: cyismydog

kg-cyclone

Well-Known Member
Oct 30, 2006
4,113
164
63
I was thinking about this last night...Mac has offered the following recruits during or before their freshman year of high school: Paige, Staten, Barnes, Dykstra, Gessell, Zeller(UNC)...Help me if I'm missing anybody. It appears to me that the guys we're offering early are turning into very nice players.
 
  • Like
Reactions: cyismydog

IP Guy

Well-Known Member
Jun 16, 2007
373
362
63
I was thinking about this last night...Mac has offered the following recruits during or before their freshman year of high school: Paige, Staten, Barnes, Dykstra, Gessell, Zeller(UNC)...Help me if I'm missing anybody. It appears to me that the guys we're offering early are turning into very nice players.

I agree. If there is one thing that even the Mac-haters can not MEANINGFULLY debate, it is his ability to spot talent earlier than the average bear. If he is able to convince that talent to come to ISU before the talent is discovered by the big boys (i.e., become UNC's number 1 recruiting target), I think it is great for ISU. I only wish Barnes had committed as a freshman.