Coronavirus Coronavirus: In-Iowa General Discussion (Not Limited)

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BCClone

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Not exactly sure.
Haha, no problem.

Yeah population density is what drives me away from places. Colorado for example is really cool and all, but the entire front range area is just traffic everywhere and it feels like anything you do, everyone else is there too.


Somehow I typed older and see autocorrect changed it to loser. Will have to change that and check this one. Did not mean that.
 

ClonesFTW

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that is an incredibly misleading comparison. The death rate for the flu is not based on serology testing - it’s based on diagnosed cases at a doctor. A huge percentage of people with the common flu don’t see the doctor or get diagnosed.

This is true but doesn’t take away from the fact that we’re finding out the Coronavirus death rate is substantially lower than initially estimated.
 

bawbie

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This is true but doesn’t take away from the fact that we’re finding out the Coronavirus death rate is substantially lower than initially estimated.

but it’s only a factor of how many people you test. It’s not prescriptive of how seriously we should take it.
 

madguy30

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It is important because if that ratio holds and we learn that immunity from the antibodies is effective, places like New York could be already approaching herd immunity levels that indicate a second wave is unlikely.

Take New York state as an example. 241,041 cases as of today multiplied by a potential "unknown infection" factor of just 50 gives you over 12 million people with immunity out of 19.5 million. If 62% of New Yorkers have had some form of it already the odds it recurs is really, really low. They are basically at a level where community spread stops occurring already regardless of masks and social distancing being employed.

Of course, you won't actually know until the serology testing occurs randomly in NY state, but we don't have any reason to believe the virus behaves differently in different areas. So it is something everyone will want to pay attention to.

I definitely think it's important...that's the best information I've seen for getting some form of idea of 'this is where we possibly are, this is what could occur from it'. It's just one study though so there needs to be more of a sample size and hopefully that happens sooner, and happens everywhere.

With the recent stuff about how *now* apparently heat and sun could very well have an effect, I'm watching the southern states including Florida. Death % vs. confirmed cases is at just under 3% in a state that's top ten in population and population density. You'd think their numbers were higher just by chance.

Wish there were a way to track when someone's been infected. First confirmed case in WI was February 5th. If that antibody study holds up, it's been through a lot of people here.
 

simply1

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I definitely think it's important...that's the best information I've seen for getting some form of idea of 'this is where we possibly are, this is what could occur from it'. It's just one study though so there needs to be more of a sample size and hopefully that happens sooner, and happens everywhere.

With the recent stuff about how *now* apparently heat and sun could very well have an effect, I'm watching the southern states including Florida. Death % vs. confirmed cases is at just under 3% in a state that's top ten in population and population density. You'd think their numbers were higher just by chance.

Wish there were a way to track when someone's been infected. First confirmed case in WI was February 5th. If that antibody study holds up, it's been through a lot of people here.
What recent stuff about heat are you referring to?
 

madguy30

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it seemed like it gets busier and more assholey by the month, but maybe that second part was just me.

I was there in the winter/spring of 2005 and visited a bit before and have lots after. Used to be plenty of open land between Boulder and Denver and now it just feels like every town is blended together.
 

madguy30

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madguy30

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Somehow I typed older and see autocorrect changed it to loser. Will have to change that and check this one. Did not mean that.

Ha, I was kinda wondering but just figured hey, we all have our perspectives. I have a close family friend that snowbirds down there but he's also very social.

I had an online 'get together' with 5 friends the other night and 2 hours was enough talking for me so maybe that's why a ton of people in a hot area isn't very appealing.
 
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Die4Cy

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I definitely think it's important...that's the best information I've seen for getting some form of idea of 'this is where we possibly are, this is what could occur from it'. It's just one study though so there needs to be more of a sample size and hopefully that happens sooner, and happens everywhere.

With the recent stuff about how *now* apparently heat and sun could very well have an effect, I'm watching the southern states including Florida. Death % vs. confirmed cases is at just under 3% in a state that's top ten in population and population density. You'd think their numbers were higher just by chance.

Wish there were a way to track when someone's been infected. First confirmed case in WI was February 5th. If that antibody study holds up, it's been through a lot of people here.

There was something a couple weeks back about research into viral load and comparing how quickly the disease spreads and how serious the cases turn out to be. I don't know if I read it here or not. But the gist was that a place like New York could have an infection point (such as a subway system) so heavily trafficked and so concentrated in disease on surfaces or for direct transmission so quickly that a couple super spreaders could infect much more quickly than models would be expected to show. It was research into the fact that you don't just need to come into contact with the virus to get sick but that people who got it bad may have encountered a lot more of the virus.

Those same several COVID super spreaders could not recreate those conditions in a place like Iowa, so the spread of the disease would more closely follow traditional models. But you see how it could occur in a place like a packing plant.
 

simply1

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BCClone

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Not exactly sure.
Who knows though.

It's 'Don't wear masks' and then it's 'wear masks.' 'Dip your groceries in Lysol as soon as you get them off the shelf' and then it's 'Just be sure to clean the packaging, the area, and rinse your fruit'.

https://www.yahoo.com/news/sunlight...ould-still-last-through-summer-200745675.html


Next allergy season is going to be fun. Cough a couple times and you may get beat up by someone close to you.

I will let you tell what an apple dipped in Lysol tastes like.

Also tough of a convenient disinfectant wipe to carry if you want something smaller. This little alcohol rub packages they have in med kits would be small emergency ones if you need one.
 

madguy30

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Outdoor would be nice but be careful spreading theories.
Iran, recently Brazil haven’t fared that well.

That's why I put *now* as it's different than what's been said before. It's not going to go away, might slow a bit but that also comes from people not being huddled inside together. There should be continued and more testing and preparation for the fall if it does slow down.
 

madguy30

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Next allergy season is going to be fun. Cough a couple times and you may get beat up by someone close to you.

I will let you tell what an apple dipped in Lysol tastes like.

Also tough of a convenient disinfectant wipe to carry if you want something smaller. This little alcohol rub packages they have in med kits would be small emergency ones if you need one.

I actually take a little ziplock with wipes with me to places and use the wipe as a barrier to open up doors with. Use 'em to wipe down my car inside and door handles etc. Way over the top--what are the chances someone has slobbered on, sneezed, coughed or even breathed on my car door handles?
 

BCClone

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Not exactly sure.
I actually take a little ziplock with wipes with me to places and use the wipe as a barrier to open up doors with. Use 'em to wipe down my car inside and door handles etc. Way over the top--what are the chances someone has slobbered on, sneezed, coughed or even breathed on my car door handles?

Doesn’t hurt. Besides it gives you something to do also. Can only watch tiger king so many times.
 

Clone83

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It seems likely the Die4Cy reference below was to an article I linked from the NY Times Opinion section, as well as to a video. I will try to tie these links together with my own experience, below this first quote.

Note: Anyone can get to each original post by pressing the tiny up arrow symbol within each quote.

There was something a couple weeks back about research into viral load and comparing how quickly the disease spreads and how serious the cases turn out to be. I don't know if I read it here or not. But the gist was that a place like New York could have an infection point (such as a subway system) so heavily trafficked and so concentrated in disease on surfaces or for direct transmission so quickly that a couple super spreaders could infect much more quickly than models would be expected to show. It was research into the fact that you don't just need to come into contact with the virus to get sick but that people who got it bad may have encountered a lot more of the virus.

Those same several COVID super spreaders could not recreate those conditions in a place like Iowa, so the spread of the disease would more closely follow traditional models. But you see how it could occur in a place like a packing plant.


My quote below has a link to that NY Times op-ed. It seems they won’t let you access the full article now without giving them an email address and registering at the NYT website. You can if you do, or are already registered and just sign in.

Just below the quote though is a link where it seems you can access it without any hassle.

... I believe the article below is probably not, freely accessible if you are over the article limit that is, as it is in the opinion section. But it has a lot of good medical information on effects of low versus high exposure to the virus, and worth clearing your cookies/ history perhaps, if necessary to access.

These Coronavirus Exposures Might Be the Most Dangerous
As with any other poison, viruses are usually deadlier in larger amounts.
By Joshua D. Rabinowitz and Caroline R. Bartman
Dr. Rabinowitz is a professor of chemistry and genomics. Dr. Bartman is a genomic researcher.
April 1, 2020

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/04/01/opinion/coronavirus-viral-dose.html

Again, the op-ed is also freely available here:
https://dnyuz.com/2020/04/01/these-coronavirus-exposures-might-be-the-most-dangerous/

Li Wenliang, the doctor in China who raised early awareness of the new coronavirus, died of the virus in February at 34. His death was shocking not only because of his role in publicizing the developing epidemic but also — given that young people do not have a high risk of dying from Covid-19 — because of his age.

Is it possible that Dr. Li died because as a doctor who spent a lot of time around severely ill Covid-19 patients, he was infected with such a high dose? ...

From a policy perspective, we need to consider that not all exposures to the coronavirus may be the same. Stepping into an office building that once had someone with the coronavirus in it is not as dangerous as sitting next to that infected person for an hourlong train commute.

... In healthy people ... immune systems respond as soon as they sense a virus growing inside. Recovery depends on which wins the race: viral spread or immune activation. [emphasis added]


*****

Below is a link to a video I linked just prior to the above op-ed, which explains how CV enters and damages the lungs. Note, you might have to press the little speaker symbol to turn the sound on.

How Coronavirus Attacks the Body


*****

Below is a post on my personal experience.

It was unusual at the time, but other facts suggesting that it could have been CV were clear only in hindsight, that I didn’t mention below. Note that at the same time, I was running 12-15 minutes 2-5 times a week, often into a stiff north wind — after a long period of inactivity due to a torn rotator cuff — why I figured it was just a cold. By the time CV was looked into, I had run 40 miles the prior week, and walked 20 miles that Sunday. In addition to my physical therapy, this was a process of getting back into shape.

It wasn’t done to beat CV, but could only help.

Applying what’s said in the sources above, if it was CV, it seems it never got much below my nose and mouth.

I haven’t been tested but am increasingly certain I had it in early February, directly, most likely, from someone who had just returned to U.S. from China.

It was unusual at the time, and this was before all the info available now that wasn’t yet at that time. I would not have thought and did not think at the time it was CV. My symptoms were mostly a persistent dry cough for 5-7 days — but with no fever and very little congestion, like the most mild cold I’ve ever had. This was all looked into later. The conclusion was that if it wasn’t just a cold, and instead CV, it didn’t matter by then as I was already well past any quarantine period. And checking with the stethoscope, my lungs were fine.
 
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mkadl

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That's about the same % I saw yesterday during a walkabout in the park. Won't go there this weekend, it will be too crowded. Some peeps were doing okay about yielding enough space on the paths, others not at all and walking two abreast or in large family groups. Biking groups and runners were almost 100% not yielding ANY space. Runners are the worst, thanks for breathing hard through your mouth while trying to almost rub shoulders with me.

Wow. I run and walk, have lived in a small town my whole life. I can't even imagine being in that situation with only crowded areas. I do feel fortunate at this time in my life.
 
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