Iowa State makes a lot of sense to the Big10, but only if the Big10 grows to 20-24 teams
The Big10 has to match the bold move by the SEC on 2 fronts.
First, the Big10 needs to add schools that can grow the Big10's regular season media rights deal at a per school level. I have seen estimates that Texas and OU's value to the Big12 TV contract was 50%. By the end of the current contract that means Texas and OU's media right value to the Big12 was going to be around $225M or $112.5M each. The other 8 Big12 schools value would only be $28M each. The Big10 schools will each earn in excess of $60M at the end of their current contract.
The ONLY way the Big10 can keep up with the SEC is by adding the media rights equivalents of OU & Texas from the ACC and possibly Pac12. The ACC has a contract through 2036 with ESPN, but the value is already viewed as antiquated. Clemson could make $30-$50M less annually than it's Big10/SEC competitors when new agreements are finalized in a couple years. The Big10 MUST go after Clemson, Notre Dame, North Carolina, Florida State, etc.
Second, the Big10 has to keep up the SEC when it comes to putting teams in the upcoming 12 team playoff. Media consultants are projecting a 12 team/11 game playoff will generate $2 BILLION in media rights fees annually! Currently, the 4 team plus New Years Bowl games distributes around $600M. Currently, 80% of the rights fees go to the Power 5 conferences and 20% goes to Group 5 conferences. Currently, the 4 semi-final games schools each get around $6M plus $2.4M for expenses. Notre Dame gets around $4M automatically.
Think about it, the current media rights contracts for the P5 conferences pays around $3B for about 404 games a season. The proposed playoff will pay $2B for 11 games.
IMO the SEC adding UT&OU is all about SEC schools getting the biggest share of the playoff pie. First by reducing the number of P5 schools that share in the $2B AND maximizing the number of SEC schools selected to the 12 team playoff.
Excellent, quant analysis. If your conclusions are correct, then college football could be heading for a “Power 2” format of two, 20+ team super conferences. While a CMC-led ISU could help the B1G with getting teams in the playoffs (the 2nd goal above), Cyclone fans may first have to wait for the blue blood musical chairs to work itself out in the B1G (the first goal above). Of course, this assumes the B1G would work through the goals above sequentially, not in parallel.
Given the Gordian knot of TV contracts already in place w/the ACC and PAC 12, it might take a few years to work out the placement of teams in the new, college football world order.
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