Report: OU & Texas reach out to join SEC

[CyLyte2]

One thing I've learned about "Conference Realignment" is the FACTS of what's taking place NEVER show up on message boards. Someone might guess at something by luck but NO ONE on a message board knows what's happening.

 

[whatthewhat]

There is long term risk for Iowa State if they remain in the Big 12 through 2025, as per the OU and Texas letter today. This does not provide us with any stability, including economic. I still recommend kicking OU and TX out of the conference now, this week. Trade short-term spite and upheaval for the money we may or may not see a few years from now.

If it were $1,000 sure. But no way you give up the millions it is going to cost Texas and Oklahoma for causing this mess.

 

[Cyched]

 

[CyrideAllstar]

And does the PAC making moves motivate the Big 10 to do anything? We’ll see

If the big 10 are dumb enough to not take the clones I'll happily join the pac 12.

 

[Cyched]

If the big 10 are dumb enough to not take the clones I'll happily join the pac 12.

I’ll be thrilled with the big 10. Happy with the pac 12. Saddened with anything else.

 

[EsTasClone]

And does the PAC making moves motivate the Big 10 to do anything? We’ll see

I think yes. No one wants to get caught with their pants down in this thing. PAC 12 making moves only makes others follow suit. Not to mention the B1G has a relatively new commish who many view as not up to the job.

 

[surly]

It feels like a Pac 12 merger is coming with the remaining 6, 7, 8 B12 schools. WVU is out, IMHO. Perhaps Baylor as well.

 

[BCClone]

I looked at the numbers slightly. As someone else mentioned, Iowa State has greatly improved our position in the last 10 years. We were #44 in AD revenue in 2019 but when you strip out state support of those schools we move up to #38 in AD revenue generation. The AD revenue was $95.4 million with ISU generating $93.4 million of that. Now that includes the approx. $40 million in conference payments which is the slice of the pie that is in jeopardy.

Very Worst case, ISU slides to an enhanced AAC level conference. The AAC may only get $10-12 million today but if the new conference includes former Big 12 teams, I would think the new contract would bump up. Still probably only $20 million or so and thus ISU takes a $20 million hit on conference payment.
IF the fan/public support remains constant that would be the only reduction, however, with a diminished public perception and visibility, the support and public sales MAY also drop some so let's ballpark another $5 million off that.

That equates ISU instead of building to $100-$105 million AD budget probably dropping back to $75-$80 million AD budget. This is better than any existing G5 conference and on par with the lowest earning schools in current P5 conferences.

People state Texas underperforms with their $200+ million budget (and they do). Iowa is over $150 million and what do they have to show for that level of spend? Iowa AD $ is #5 in B1G, is the AD performance top 5? Iowa State is #6 (out of 8 public, supposedly Baylor is more, TCU less) in Big12. I would say our AD performance is top half (probably #4-5 in all sports) so ISU is definitely getting value for the dollar.

Rank	School	Conf	Revenue	Expenses	Rev Generate
50	Georgia Tech	ACC	$85,802,112	$96,334,831	$77,544,930
47	North Carolina State	ACC	$92,724,548	$90,100,025	$85,872,559
42	Virginia Tech	ACC	$96,772,489	$93,961,068	$86,494,151
36	North Carolina	ACC	$107,812,619	$110,809,706	$98,649,245
32	Virginia	ACC	$110,219,117	$112,621,238	$91,789,316
22	Clemson	ACC	$133,861,515	$131,978,513	$128,259,075
19	Louisville	ACC	$139,955,824	$151,167,940	$134,032,007
12	Florida State	ACC	$152,757,883	$150,147,316	$137,150,864
48	Kansas State	Big 12	$89,919,822	$83,079,244	$89,919,822
45	Oklahoma State	Big 12	$95,335,482	$95,008,483	$95,247,842
44	Iowa State	Big 12	$95,411,884	$95,315,376	$93,357,570
43	Texas Tech	Big 12	$96,625,347	$95,132,604	$93,107,675
40	West Virginia	Big 12	$102,680,928	$98,249,890	$98,778,029
28	Kansas	Big 12	$121,553,307	$108,881,800	$119,807,033
8	Oklahoma	Big 12	$163,126,695	$157,958,270	$163,126,695
1	Texas	Big 12	$223,879,781	$204,234,897	$223,879,781
39	Rutgers	Big Ten	$103,251,280	$103,167,344	$73,391,885
33	Maryland	Big Ten	$108,796,303	$108,785,924	$83,432,588
31	Purdue	Big Ten	$110,844,907	$102,026,477	$110,844,907
29	Illinois	Big Ten	$118,565,501	$120,168,951	$109,912,686
25	Indiana	Big Ten	$127,832,628	$114,822,135	$124,878,123
24	Minnesota	Big Ten	$130,456,454	$129,450,256	$122,483,722
21	Nebraska	Big Ten	$136,233,460	$124,148,206	$136,233,460
18	Michigan State	Big Ten	$140,010,865	$135,655,740	$139,125,175
14	Iowa	Big Ten	$151,976,026	$146,282,275	$151,326,026
11	Wisconsin	Big Ten	$157,660,107	$154,621,828	$154,631,107
6	Penn State	Big Ten	$164,529,326	$160,369,805	$164,529,326
4	Michigan	Big Ten	$197,820,410	$190,952,175	$197,558,637
3	Ohio State	Big Ten	$210,548,239	$220,572,956	$210,548,239
54	Washington State	Pac-12	$71,691,339	$76,258,966	$66,229,324
51	Oregon State	Pac-12	$82,058,386	$82,364,021	$70,246,661
49	California	Pac-12	$87,500,758	$106,676,734	$87,500,758
46	Colorado	Pac-12	$94,935,198	$98,413,284	$82,652,173
41	Utah	Pac-12	$99,526,695	$96,000,514	$86,932,182
38	Arizona	Pac-12	$105,091,389	$100,565,835	$83,205,222
35	UCLA	Pac-12	$108,412,967	$127,339,042	$105,835,754
27	Arizona State	Pac-12	$121,698,840	$118,404,377	$102,342,706
26	Oregon	Pac-12	$127,508,498	$128,943,543	$127,055,574
23	Washington	Pac-12	$133,792,677	$131,317,636	$129,640,713
37	Missouri	SEC	$106,610,244	$108,398,447	$105,595,244
34	Mississippi	SEC	$108,442,428	$113,013,400	$105,347,032
30	Mississippi State	SEC	$112,273,809	$98,832,615	$112,273,809
20	Arkansas	SEC	$137,497,788	$129,620,361	$137,497,788
17	South Carolina	SEC	$140,695,659	$136,879,732	$140,695,659
16	Tennessee	SEC	$143,765,903	$142,976,173	$143,765,903
15	Kentucky	SEC	$150,435,842	$144,886,246	$150,435,842
13	Auburn	SEC	$152,455,416	$139,260,711	$147,194,164
10	LSU	SEC	$157,787,782	$148,977,880	$157,787,782
9	Florida	SEC	$159,706,937	$141,829,002	$157,445,164
7	Alabama	SEC	$164,090,889	$185,317,681	$161,436,338
5	Georgia	SEC	$174,042,482	$143,299,554	$170,533,632
2	Texas A&M	SEC	$212,748,002	$169,012,456	$212,748,002

One thing to remember is the media money is not all from the conference, I believe we get somewhere between 5-10 MM for radio, CTV, and other stuff. So you can subtract that from your 20 MM hit in revenue.

 

[CascadeClone]

It feels like a Pac 12 merger is coming with the remaining 6, 7, 8 B12 schools. But WVU is out, IMHO. Perhaps Baylor as well.

I would feel bad for WV. I really hope they can land somewhere good, like the ACC, but idk how it happens.

Baylor can suck it. Karma is a b!tch and she is a big Sun Belt fan.

 

[cydsho]

I have no idea if it is the best long term (forever) deal but I'm leaning Super Pac12 conf. Getting away from the SEC/B10 drama sounds good. Although I just don't know how good that would be because that conference would not be in the heart of college sports. If that even exists now.

 

[cyIclSoneU]

It feels like a Pac 12 merger is coming with the remaining 6, 7, 8 B12 schools. WVU is out, IMHO. Perhaps Baylor as well.

I don’t really see the value from the Pac-12’s perspective in adding more than four leftovers. If the B1G and ACC aren’t taking any (WVU excluded), then I think this is probably bad news for Baylor, TCU, and K-State.

 

[Statefan10]

It feels like a Pac 12 merger is coming with the remaining 6, 7, 8 B12 schools. WVU is out, IMHO. Perhaps Baylor as well.

I think if the PAC 12 expands, the B1G does too and grabs ISU and KU.

 

[cyIclSoneU]

I think if the PAC 12 expands, the B1G does too and grabs ISU and KU.

The absolute best case scenario all around is the ACC gets WVU, the B1G takes us and Kansas, the Pac-12 takes K-State, OSU, Tech, and TCU, and Baylor is left crying and headed to the American.

 

[SEIOWA CLONE]

I am starting to think this is not going to be quick as what I once thought. I assumed that once OU and UT made it official that they were leaving the other conferences would quickly want to fill their remaining spots.
But after hearing Jami last night saying that he expects for UT and OU to fulfill their obligation to the league or buy themselves out of it, and then seeing that the GOR for the Pac 12 runs out in 2024, I am thinking this is going to take a season or two.

ISU should be fine until at least 2023 no matter what happens, even if OU and UT pay the penalty and leave, and the rates decrease we should be able to make it at least two years. That will give both the Big 10 and Pac 12 time to decide what they are doing. Are they just going to set up some type of scheduling between the two conferences or are 4 to 6 teams going to break away and join the Big 10. Until we know that, and their GOR do not run out until 2024, we are in neutral going no where.

 

[ruflosn]

I think if the PAC 12 expands, the B1G does too and grabs ISU and KU.

I don't think KU is attractive to the BIG.

 

[BigJCy]

I am starting to think this is not going to be quick as what I once thought. I assumed that once OU and UT made it official that they were leaving the other conferences would quickly want to fill their remaining spots.
But after hearing Jami last night saying that he expects for UT and OU to fulfill their obligation to the league or buy themselves out of it, and then seeing that the GOR for the Pac 12 runs out in 2024, I am thinking this is going to take a season or two.

ISU should be fine until at least 2023 not matter what happens, even if OU and UT pay the penalty and leave, and the rates decrease we should be able to make it at least two years. That will give both the Big 10 and Pac 12 time to decide what they are doing. Are they just going to set up some type of scheduling between the two conferences or are 4 to 6 teams going to break away and join the Big 10. Until we know that, and their GOR do not run out until 2024, we are in neutral going no where.

Agree, think this is going to be a year or years type deal not a weeks or months one....unfortunately. No use getting all worried about where we are going to end up at this point. Probably going to be a fairly long process.

 

[JD4560]

365 Sports. Baylor guys talking about this. They guy in the green hat...… oh boy

 

[Statefan10]

I don't think KU is attractive to the BIG.

Maybe not. I know nothing haha

 

[Rods79]

I am starting to think this is not going to be quick as what I once thought. I assumed that once OU and UT made it official that they were leaving the other conferences would quickly want to fill their remaining spots.
But after hearing Jami last night saying that he expects for UT and OU to fulfill their obligation to the league or buy themselves out of it, and then seeing that the GOR for the Pac 12 runs out in 2024, I am thinking this is going to take a season or two.

ISU should be fine until at least 2023 not matter what happens, even if OU and UT pay the penalty and leave, and the rates decrease we should be able to make it at least two years. That will give both the Big 10 and Pac 12 time to decide what they are doing. Are they just going to set up some type of scheduling between the two conferences or are 4 to 6 teams going to break away and join the Big 10. Until we know that, and their GOR do not run out until 2024, we are in neutral going no where.

I’m just going to reiterate; the B1G and the PAC are renegotiating long-term contracts for after 2024 now, or shortly if they have any started yet. It is not like they’re going to work something out in 2023 just in time for 2024. The networks are going to plan their slates out well in advance of that. This is through this season at most, in my opinion…depending how much the legal system does or does not take it to TX/OU.

 

[Dandy]

I think if the PAC 12 expands, the B1G does too and grabs ISU and KU.

You and I are on the same page today!

I just posted this in the In-State football thread:


In my dreams I think it will go something like:
- B1G quickly decides to stay put
- PAC has expansion plans announced
- B1G reacts and decides to expand too

Just like their COVID decision. Make quick decision, watch what others do, then react.

If the SEC and PAC get to 16 teams the B1G will want to follow suit. ACC will do the same in this scenario too.

SEC adds OU and Texas.
ACC adds WV and ??? (Cinc, UCF, Memphis)
B1G adds ISU and KU
PAC adds Ok St, K St, Tech and TCU

P4 with 16 teams each.

Baylor gets the boot to the AAC.